Why Martin For Landry Was A Fair Trade
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 23, 2011 12:05 AM PST
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PrintThere have been a lot of complaints on the board recently regarding the Martin-Landry trade. Really, there are two components to these complaints:
1 – Martin is a far superior player to Landry
2 – Landry is a UFA and could leave after the season
I can do little to address #2 as that will just depend on what trades and signings Petrie can make. We won’t have a clear answer until the end of summer if not even later.
However, I can address part 1, because as soon as you start taking a more intricate look at the numbers it becomes apparent that Martin and Landry are virtually the same player.
Take a look at this graph showing Martin’s and Landry’s stats in Houston and Sacramento the last two seasons. Since both teams have had very similar personnel the last two years, the team structures allow for a relatively accurate comparison.
|
|
Usage |
True Shooting % |
% Assisted |
PER |
|
Kmart 2011 Houston |
29.52 |
62.00 |
58.70 |
22.56 |
|
Landry 2010 Houston |
23.83 |
62.10 |
56.60 |
21.11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kmart 2010 Sacramento |
25.31 |
53.00 |
60.70 |
16.95 |
|
Landry 2011 Sacramento |
20.91 |
54.00 |
47.30 |
15.21 |
As you can see in Houston’s offense both players shot identically. Martin used a few more possessions and Landry created a few more shots for himself. Overall, Martin was slightly more efficient offensively going by PER, but Landry was probably a slightly better defender. The extra possessions used by Martin also explain why his raw numbers in Houston look gaudier than Landry’s.
In Sacramento, the shooting percentages and PER are very close again. The primary difference was Martin burned more possessions, while Landry had to create a lot more shots for himself (or has failed to finish shots set up by others depending upon your perspective).
Of the two though, the Houston comparison strikes me as more pure and telling. KMart was hurt in Sacramento and the team dynamic completely changed on him from past years. This year, the rotations coupled with Reke’s injury made our team a disaster early on. As our team has been improving, Landry’s numbers are starting to get closer to his Houston numbers.
“But wait, Kevin’s nearly an All Star and Landry is just a great bench player”
Personally, I think both players are suited to a 6th man role for good teams. They both would provide a great scoring spark off of the bench. However, reasonable people will disagree with me and argue that Kevin can be so much more than that. He’s a star.
Really? He’s a great scorer. Landry’s equal to be sure. But let’s take a look at his other numbers:
|
|
Assist Rate |
A/T |
TRR |
SPG |
BPG |
|
Martin |
10.07 |
1.07 |
5.6 |
0.8 |
0.15 |
|
Martin SG Rank (out of 32) |
28 |
28 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
|
Martin Usage Rank (out of 40) |
30 |
N/A |
36 |
N/A |
N/A |
[Note: N/A stats are not available due to issues with sorting in Hoopsdata. The Usage statistic is only available in their Advanced Statistics tab, so I could not bring up the same sample of players for more standard statistics. No data was purposely omitted to make this argument.]
Passing
For a shooting guard, Martin is a horrific passer. Kevin Martin is an anomaly as a basketball player both in good ways (3s and FTs), but also how many possessions he uses without helping any of his teammates.
Kevin Martin’s Assist rate is 10.07, meaning about 10% of his possessions end in an assist. To put that in perspective, out of the 32 SGs who have played at least 25 minutes/game this year, KMart ranks 28th. The only ones below him are Anthony Morrow, Jason Richardson, Brandon Rush and Nick “what’s a pass” Young.
The again, some shooting guards are used differently than others. So perhaps you think this is a fluke or its just me manipulating the statistics. After all, maybe he gets so few assists because he uses so many possessions to score. So instead, let’s take a look at the Top 40 players with the highest usage rates.
Of the Top 40 players, Martin is 30th in assist rate. He’s the 11th worst on the list, with most of the player below him being PFs and Cs (Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez, Amare Stoudemire) or noted ball hogs (Michael Beasley, Andray Blatche). In fact, he was dead last out of all guards on the list.
And it’s not even like Martin is careful with his passes, his A/T ratio is the 28th for our SG sample and 35th out of our high usage players.
Rebounding
Martin rebounds about as well as he passes, grabbing about 5.6% of all available rebounds.
Without context that might not mean much, so looking at the same data sets as before, Marin was the 20th worst rebounder out of all SGs.
If you look at our high usage sample set he ranks 36th out of 40. This isn’t completely fair since that lists does include SFs, PFs and Cs who should beat him. However, it gives some context to the fact that while KMart was better than 10 of these players in Assist Rate, all 10 crushed him in Redound Rate. 100%. There is not one high usage player who Kevin beat in both Assist and Rebound rate. However, there were plenty who beat him in both (18 to be exact).
Defense
Sadly, there are not many good defensive statistics to measure a player’s performance. Looking at defensive rating/on-off statistics, the Rockets defense is a point worse with Martin on the floor. But there are so many team specific variables there, it is really hard to draw any conclusions not specific to the Rockets. Even if you are anti-KMart, this statistic doesn’t tell you he’s a bad defender, maybe his backup is just a very good defender.
So we are left with his abysmal steal and block numbers (21 and 23 out of SGs) and our eyes. All Kings fans complained about KMart’s terrible D when he was here. Reading the message boards over at Clutch Fans and you’ll find the complaints remain.
So ultimately, we have a player who is deficient in every major basketball function other than scoring. This doesn’t render Martin useless. His scoring prowess is so efficient that he would make a great fit in the right situation, much like Carl Landry.
For a comparison, here are Landry’s ranks:
|
|
AR |
A/T |
TRR |
SPG |
BPG |
|
Landry |
6.57 |
0.56 |
10.1 |
0.59 |
0.46 |
|
Landy PF Rank (out of 32) |
29 |
30 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
Landy Usage Rank (out of 41) |
39 |
N/A |
18 |
N/A |
N/A |
I won’t go over Landy’s ranks in as much detail, as they are pretty much what most Kings fans would have guessed. The only thing I will note is that among PFs he ranks almost identically to how Martin ranked among shooting guards. Again, they are largely the same player – very efficient scorer, bad at everything else.
“You’re missing the point, Marin is a winner, look at the Rockets record and ours”
I think most people agree that the others players on the roster, experience and coaching also factor into team record. So let’s take a look at both team’s records last year with Martin and Landry.
|
|
W |
L |
Win % |
|
2010 Martin Sacramento |
4 |
18 |
18.18% |
|
2010 Landry Sacramento |
7 |
21 |
25.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010 Martin Houston |
12 |
12 |
50.00% |
|
2010 Landry Houston |
27 |
25 |
51.92% |
As you can see, both teams were actually better with Landry than Martin last year. In both cases it was pretty incremental, so I’m not using this as evidence that Landry is the better player; however, it also puts Martin’s impact into perspective.
When you factor in that the Rocket’s are 19-23 with Martin this year (45.23 winning %), you could draw the conclusion that he has had either no impact or a negative overall impact on his teams.
If I had to guess why that is, I would hypothesize it is because even though he is a very efficient scorer, he is a bit of a one-dimensional player who shoots constantly and doesn’t make his teammates better. Furthermore, when you look at his porous defense and poor rebounding, you can see that he actually is a negative to his team outside of his ability to create points for himself.
When you sub another player in for Martin, you can reap benefits in all of the areas Martin is weak in while allowing others to pick up some of the offensive slack.
Without Martin, the Rockets were able to give more minutes to Trevor Ariza and Kyle Lowry. With Ariza you got tough defense and good rebounding, while Brooks and Landry were able to increase their scoring. With Lowry you increased your defense and ball movement.
When Martin left the Kings, Udrih made up 75% of Martin’s offense while using his passing to create higher offensive efficiency for the other Kings.
“No, the Kings should have gotten more for Martin. All the other teams do”
Ok, for the sake of argument, let’s look at players traded in the last few years making 10+ million who were perceived as someone who could be the 3rd or 4th best option on a good team:
Caron Butler - expirings
Jason Richardson – Vince Carter, not sure if the Suns wanted the player or expiring contract
Vince Carter – Courtney Lee and expirings
Gilbert Arenas – Rashard Lewis
Mike Bibby - expirings
Al Jefferson – 2 first round picks & Koufos
Marcus Camby – twice – once for a 2nd round pick and once for expiring contracts
Antwan Jamison – expirings and a 1st round pick, though the Cavs had one of the best records, so when this deal was made it was guaranteed to be a pick in the 20s
Stephen Jackson - expirings
There’s no place to sorts for these types of trades, so if anyone knows others I am happy to list them. However, this list is underwhelming at best. In the modern NBA, no one gives more than cap relief and maybe a late first round pick for an expensive player who is going to take up 20% of their cap without being one of their top 2 players.
The Point
While it remains to be seen what Petrie will be able to receive for Landry and what he will do with the 11.5 million and 12.5 million in salary now available to the Kings the next two years, this deal was basically a wash. Having acquired Cousins and Dalembert in the offseason, you can argue this year’s Kings would be better off with a one dimensional shooter instead of a one dimensional inside scorer. However, talent for talent this deal appears to be very even with any statistics. And considering how acrimonious the relationship between Martin and the Kings was becoming, it was a deal that needed to be made.
I know this year has been frustrating so far. However, pining for a player who a number of fans bashed while he is on the team isn’t constructive. I think Martin is a good player and I wish him nothing but the best; however, the Kings did not get ripped off in this trade, they not only got a fairly equal player, but they received what was market value for a player of Martin’s talent and contract size.
It’s time to move on.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
130 comments
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It's a brilliant and well-thought out breakdown. Rec'd
My concern is the oft-discussed case of Apples v. Oranges, 1953
1 – Martin is a far superior player to Landry
They’re just such different players, and not even in the sense of shooting guard as opposed to point guard. These two players just don’t have anything in common in regard to their games, aside from scoring being their best skill set, and both of them probably being 6’7".
I don’t get the impression that you yourself believed that particular statement, and I’m not certain how many regular StR readers believe it either. Even without all of the excellent research you’ve laid out here, I expect most people would allow that the Kings, as currently constructed, would be a better team from night to night having Kevin Martin available at shooting guard, rather than Carl Landry at power forward. There will be exceptions, of course, and they will tell you so, in all caps, and with eccentric punctuation and grammar.
Pieces like this one are what make this site head and shoulders above so many other similar offerings. Again, really just very well done.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
Thank you
And I agree in theory (mentioned it in the write up) that this year’s team would be better off with a shooter instead of a post scorer. When we made the trade last year, the opposite was true as we had Hawes and Thompson using most of our minutes at the 4/5 and neither was great at creating points.
The one thing that gives me pause about Martin on this team is that so far in his career he is a player who has really thrived having the ball in his hands and getting touches. Despite his excellent shooting, he hasn’t wanted to be an off the ball shooter. That’s what created some of the conflict last year when it became clear this was Evans offense. This year with Evans and Cousins both initiating the majority of the offense, I would bet Martin would be even more unhappy about the allocation of touches. So, while having Martin would be helping more, it would probably involve letting him initiate more offense at the expense of Reke and Cousin’s growth. For our long term health, we are probably better off taking our lumps and letting those two learn.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 23, 2011 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Totally agree.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
Great write-up
rec’d. I’m still up in the air about the trade but this gives some really good perspective. Good job
Keep Jason Thompson out of the damn fruit salad!
by prowseinthehouse on Jan 23, 2011 12:37 AM PST reply actions
Great article
I was not a big Kmart fan when he was here and I am not a big Landry fan either. Just like your stats show they both can score and that’s about it. I have always been a fan of players that can play defense, or ate at least somewhat unselfish. I hope whoever the player is that we eventually get for Landry, via trade or free agency, is a more complete player then Carl and KMart.
I agree that players that are black holes on offense, but can score in bunches and efficiently, are perfect for the 6th man role. I see KMart as being the next Jamal Crawford on a contending team, and being the next Crawford isn’t a knock on him at all.
well done!
Always like reading from Stat aficionados, and agreed with prowse where it does offer a great prospective. Im positive every team has made a iffy trade thats always going to be debated upon, and here’s ours. Again, well done with the Post good arrangement as well
We can't win at home. We can't win on the road. I just can't figure out where else to play!
-- Pat Williams
Great analysis
You don’t even mention the injury factor. It looks like Kevin has been very healthy in his Houston time so far, and obviously no one knows for sure if he’ll get significantly hurt over the next couple of years, but I think his style of play (and body type) makes a major injury more likely than players that aren’t constantly attacking. Martin will get paid a good chunk of change in the next two seasons, and if he were to be hurt for a good deal of that time, it could be a tough pill for Houston to swallow (especially if they’re in some kind of playoff run at the time). It’s just an additional risk with a player like Martin.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 6:15 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
I agree about injuries
but I left that out since I didn’t want this to be about bashing Martin, just following the statistics. Injuries felt like a very subjective analysis. I think his small frame and the amount of contact he draws is a concern, but that’s more my opinion than something I could back up with evidence.
Gotcha, good points.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
This makes me more angry about losing Adelman than Martin
by LPKingsFan on Jan 23, 2011 6:29 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
I agree completley
I didn’t include it in the write up, because it was very long already. However, I took the same thing from this research. Adelman has gotten the best out of both players, while Westphal has not. We saw that happen continuously while he was here in Sacramento. I think it’s a great credit to him and a sign that we may need to find a new coach this offseason.
Nice analysis, but ...
I really did enjoy this analysis. But I’d like to introduce some counter-arguments.
- Both are good players according to PER. You want your good players playing more minutes. So the fact that Kevin plays more minutes (31 vs 27 this year) is notable. He’s giving you more per game, even if the numbers are similar per possession.
- You’re fudging the facts a bit when you say that Martin and Landry rank similarly on passing and rebounding. Martin is No. 28 among 32 shooting guards in passing. Landry is 29 of 32 among PFs. Martin is No. 20 of 32 SGs in rebounding. Landry is No. 29. So, grading for position, Landry is a slightly worse passer and a much worse rebounder. They don’t rank similarly so much as Landry ranks worse.
- Usage and efficiency combined to make up productivity. Martin has a much higher usage in both Sacramento and Houston, and Landry edges just a touch on efficiency. What’s that actually mean on the court? In the Sacramento comparison: 16.4 points per 36 minutes for Landry, 20.3 for Martin. In the Houston comparison: 21.3 points per 36 for Landry, 26.9 for Martin. So Martin has been more productive in the one area both excel — scoring — in both places, by a large margin.
- At the start, you talk about the key components of the argument being Martin vs. Landry and what happens next year when Martin’s under contract and Landry is not. The second part is vital to any discussion of the trade, and as you said, we don’t know yet. But allow me this exercise.
Imagine Martin were a free agent in 2011, and we could get him for $11 million. You’d be thrilled, right?
by Tom Ziller on Jan 23, 2011 6:49 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
My honest answer to that question is no.
For that much money, how much are you improving the offense over having Beno starting? Kevin is a better scorer, but the overall offense? How much are you improving the defense? I think if we’re going to spend that kind of money on a backcourt player, they need to be a significant improvement in at least one aspect of the game. Either a true floor general or an athletic defensive stopper.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 7:18 AM PST up reply actions
Scoring is not an aspect of the game?
These are same arguments that had lots of folks ‘round here dismissing interest in Amar’e Stoudemire.
Martin is one of the very best and most efficient scorers in the game. The Kings have an awful offense. What am I missing?
Here's an honest question:
How would you feel if the Kings were at a similar place with Kevin right now and weren’t able to move him for a deal similar to Landry and the cap space gained?
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
I'd understand that argument if the Kings weren't destined to be SOOO far under the minimum salary threashold
Now we’ve leveraged our cap space AGAINST us. We’re going to HAVE to spend that money, and Agents know this. That can be a recipe for disaster in and of itself, because if we want to sign someone of worth, we’ll likely have to overpay on multiple accounts just to reach the min. threshold.
Well we could very well overpay (and I think Petrie actually has a history of doing so)
but this doesn’t make a whole lot of sense
Now we’ve leveraged our cap space AGAINST us. We’re going to HAVE to spend that money, and Agents know this.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 23, 2011 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
I just don't think we need to worry about agents overcharging us for a free agent
Since Petrie’s more likely to use that space via trade. So we’ll be taking on existing contracts.
Just my opinion, but I don’t see free agency being a big issue for Sacramento.
You think Petrie will use it(capspace) in trades?
I used to think this also wally until this season when all I hear from the Kings(Petrie, Maloofs, Peaches, Jerry, etc) is they are waiting until the new CBA to use the capsace. Well the new CBA isn’t going to mean anything as far as contracts/players who were signed before it. Thus the players/contracts who would be available for trades. That leaves free agents.
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jan 23, 2011 5:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Not really
That also leaves players that might be available via trade from teams that have to offload contract after the new CBA is in place. For example, Orlando stands to be millions and millions over the cap and luxury tax levels for next year. Could that make a Jameer Nelson available? Atlanta could be facing similar issues. Does that make Josh Smith available?
Of course, we won’t know the impact until the new agreement is in place. But this could be the avenue that the Kings use – buyers in a buyers market.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I like Jameer Nelson as a player...
….but quite honestly, he’s a more expensive Beno Udrih who is less efficient.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
I'm not sure he will actually use the cap space in trades
I just think it’s the more likely scenario.
How does that not make sense
Agents are going to see that we have to spend money, and will say, “I think my guy is worth this much money” when in fact he’s probably worth 75-80% of that. The agent will say, unless you pay my guy that much we won’t sign, and they’ll know we CAN pay that, just that we’re not willing to. That’s my point.
Your talking about the issue of our franchise competing with itself which would happen pretty much nomatter what so long as we have more cap space than the midlevel exception.
If we are that concerned about the Kings protecting themselves from themselves then we got bigger problems.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 23, 2011 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
Was the Kings offense with Martin that much better?
Those Martin-led teams were bad bad teams as well. There’s only so far a team can go when their offense is based around giving the ball to Kevin Martin and letting him flail his way to the free throw line. Yes, he scores a lot of points. But when the game tightens up and the refs stop giving him the calls, everything falls apart. We saw that time and time again once Martin became “the man” here. Could he be worked into a better and more effective role on this team with more talent around him (’Reke, Cuz, Casspi)? Maybe, but neither he nor the team seemed very interested in trudging down that road.
My point wasn’t that Kevin Martin isn’t a good player, or even worth his contract to some teams, my point is that I don’t see how you significantly improve this Kings team by having Kevin Martin on it for $11 million. If this team were to improve by throwing money at the backcourt, it would either need to be a very good distributing point guard to put next to ’Reke, or if the team decided to add a SG to put next to ’Reke it would need to be someone who could shoot, defend, and be a vocal leader on both ends of the floor (basically, a better version of Cisco Garcia).
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 10:00 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
In other words, all the same reasons why I'm not excited about the prospect of Aaron Brooks on this team.
Is he a good player? Of course. Would he score a lot of points here? Probably. But will he be worth what we’d be paying him, in actual wins and team improvement? I really don’t think so. I know it’s weird to be measuring things things with “how much better than Beno?”, but that’s really where this is at for me. Beno is doing a pretty good job scoring the ball efficiently, but his defense is horrible and he doesn’t seem to be doing a very good job of leading the offense to get good shots for the other guys. So would I want the Kings to spend $11 million dollars on a Kevin Martin or an Aaron Brooks, who are essentially a slightly better “Beno”? No, thanks.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 23, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How would you feel about Andre Iguodala?
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Iggy is exactly who I would want.
Especially considering I can’t think of any “true floor generals” that would be available. But the great thing about Iggy is that he could start for us at the 2 or the 3, depending on who else we may acquire (in trade, FA, or draft). He may not solve our playmaking problems, but he’s a damn good player who would change the dynamic of the team big time.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 24, 2011 6:21 AM PST up reply actions
I was iffy earlier in the year, but am warming to the idea fast
Would especially make sense if we acquired a stretch 4 so we could have 2 pure shooters on the floor. Someone like Arizona’s Williams in the draft.
I'm not sure people appreciate how good of a player Iggy is.
But when you see him play all the time you realize it. I just don’t know that with Rod Thorn around, ASSN, that a deal gets done. Thorn tends to play a heavy hand for players, and I don’t know that he won’t be different this time.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Although he has been open to trading him for at least 1.5 years
has gotten no better offers, hasn’t seen Iggy’s trade value go up and as noted in the write up above there’s not a lot of reason to believe he can fetch too much more given the current climate.
You know Rod Thorn recently came to the Sixers in July or August right?
I don’t think Ed Stefanski (the guy who was GM and still is) has had Iggy on the block for that long though.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Fair enough
And maybe Thorn is like the guy in your fantasy league who won’t make a trade unless it’s a rip off even as his team sinks into last place, but the market still seems to be set.
I think Rod Thorn was trying to brace the Sixer fanbase that a trade may not make sense for the Sixers at this time.
Which, is effective. Teams know what they’re getting with Thorn, and it will likely take a high quality offer (read: more than cap relief) to get Iggy out of Philly.
Jason Thompson, Donte Greene 2 1st round picks (top 10 protected in 2011), the 2011 2nd rounder for Iggy.
Reasonable? Maybe maybe not. But I don’t think the Kings would have an offer that exceeds that, and I doubt any other team would either. The question is that good enough, and it probably won’t be.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
And proof positive of what I just wrote? I just checked Liberty Ballers...
…and stumbled upon this. Oh well, such is life.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
I would 100% pass then
I wouldn’t mind adding Iggy, but that is way to steep of a price tag. That’s less than the Lakers gave for Pau and not too much less than the Celtics gave for KG. I love Iggy, but he’s not on the same level as those players.
I would consider cap relief (and since we could absorb Iggy w/o sending back a big expiring that’s significant) + Donte + maybe a lottery protected 1st round pick. Maybe.
Funny
Philly fans see it as too little in return. I love this stuff.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
People alway overvalue what's theirs
and undervalue what others have. It’s Psych 101 :)
Still, looking at current market values, Iggy seems to fit into the group above. Great #4 or 4, making something like 12 million per year. Sorry, but that’s not worth an arm and a leg.
Are the Kings giving up that much?
JT Donte 2 1st’s (one this year that’s top 10 protected) which means if the Kings make the playoffs from 2012-14, that’s 2 non lottery picks to the Sixers. I don’t see that as being excessive value at all.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Yes
Considering how much cap room we are giving them. And JT is becoming a legit starter. I wouldn’t do that and 2 first round picks. And Donte? That’s a lot of assets.
Heh.
Not really, but okay. We disagree on that by a great mile. I’m not even sure Philly would consider that offer fair.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Toooooo much
"But screw your courage to the stiking place - and we'll not fail"
Macbeth Act I, Sc VII
by lietothegirls on Jan 26, 2011 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
I love how Philly fans believe JT is a scrub....
…and Sac fans believe this deal is outrageously high. (This is how NBA deals get done.)
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Well part of that is reputation
I don’t blame them for thinking Greene is a scrub. He gets overvalued some here because of his potential. However, for those who watch him, JT is becoming a legit starting PF or great bench player. Will never be an allstar, but certainly valuable.
Problem is, Philly fans are caught in an odd double-think. They want to trade AI because he makes too much and they know he won’t lead them to a title. However, they think other teams should pay out the nose for a player who makes too much and won’t be a Top 2 player on a title team.
Yep about the Philly fans.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
This is a lot of what I've been trying to say ASSN.
Gratzi sir.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
It reminds me a bit of the "Barry Bonds only hits home runs" argument
Kevin Martin may not do a lot of other things well, but he is an ELITE offensive player.
The difference is
One three-run homer could represent 60% of your offense in a 5-4 win.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
Kevin Martin was never close to Barry Bonds talent level.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
by pookeyguru on Jan 23, 2011 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not really the same
First, they are two different sports.
Second, not only did Barry hit HRs, but he had a great batting average, OBP, OPS and drew a lot of walks. When he was younger he was also fast on the bases and was a good defender.
Yes his D slipped as he gold older, but even then, in baseball defense is a much smaller part of the game than in basketball.
Okay here's the real differencee.
Barry Bonds was for at least a number of years the best player in baseball. Kevin Martin has never come anywhere near achieving that.
Case closed.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
I'm still searching through my post
To see where I compared Barry Bonds and Kevin Martin on a talent level.
Just saying there’s an argument that’s used to dismiss players that some see as one-dimensional – so the one dimension becomes unimportant.
by otis29 on Jan 24, 2011 6:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I see your point and there is some validity
Problem is just the comparison. In baseball, offense is 90% of the game (from a position player’s standpoint) and Bonds excelled in all facets of offense.
Following the analogy, if Kevin scored at his current rate and passed like Steve Nash and grabbed offensive rebounds like Marcus Camby, then we could overlook his defensive ineptitude. Especially if he was only responsible for defending on small area of the court. And only after the opposing player got past the team’s designated stopper (like a baseball pitcher). Haha, ok, well you can see where the two sports are nearly impossible to compare.
This is my problem.
I understood where you were going with it Otis.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
And now it turned into a Bonds discussion
How about “Adam Dunn only hits home runs”?
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by CaliforniaJag on Jan 25, 2011 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
Imagine Martin were a free agent in 2011, and we could get him for $11 million. You’d be thrilled, right?
Nope. And I’m thrilled Kevin’s having the season he’s having, but I’ll never believe that he’ll have had that season here in Sacramento. It just wasn’t in the cards.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
by pookeyguru on Jan 23, 2011 8:27 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Just no
After reading this excellent post and suffering through years of Martin-led frustration, why would you be thrilled to do a rerun?
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
You raise up the critical piece
The contract. Martin is a player with a really good contract. He isn’t overpaid. We basically gave up a really good player with a really good contract for a player who we will lose at the end of this season for nothing. That is the deal breaker for me.
2 – Landry is a UFA and could leave after the season
Completely ignoring the above, the most critical piece, makes this an interesting and well written read. Very well done in fact, but at the same time it doesn’t even address the biggest reason why most think the deal won’t end up being good.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Thanks TZ
Love counter-arguments. I actually typed a whole replay before my browser crashed, so here we go again with a few thoughts:
1 – This is a bit chicken and the egg to me. Part of why I used per minute and efficiency numbers. In theory, with the same minutes and touches Martin and Landry would put up similar statistics. Coaching and situation is what dictates those allocations though. In Sacramento, we have more depth at PF than the Rockets have at SG. Ironic, because it was the exact opposite situation when we first acquired Landry.
2 – Fair point. Perhaps we can conclude that Martin is marginally better at his position. The overall argument that both players are very bad at their positions outside of scoring still holds though.
3 – Two quick thoughts. Usage like with the first point, is a factor of coaching and system. In theory, with higher usage, Landry would be able to produce more points. Although, for both players, given their inability to involve their teammates, neither one should be having that many plays run through them.
4 – No argument here. I stated up top that what we do with Landry and the cap space is an unknown. If Petrie blows it on marginal players, he will rightfully be criticized. If he lands a good third tier player or signs two players that fill our needs better, than he deserves praise.
I personally though would not want to sign Martin to an 11.5 million dollar contract in the off-season. 20% of our cap on one player who brings one efficiency to the table while being a negative everywhere else on the court is a bad use of money to me. There are enough good offensive players on our team and in the league, I feel we can replace 90% of Martin’s offense while gaining in other areas. A SG/SF who plays tough D and hits 3s and a solid PG would go a long way to fill the void around Evans, Cousins and whoever we draft.
Amen to you, SptsJunkie, amen to you.
Couldn’t agree more with your posts, or your reply.
TZ really would be “thrilled” to pay Martin $11 mm to rejoin the squad? Good God.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
It was definitely a quality write-up
in that you spent a lot of time looking up stats and finding ones that fit your argument.
However, the premise is flawed. Anytime you have to use stats to tear down one player in order to vault up another player you know you’re lying, even if it’s only a partial lie. As Mark Twain used to say, their are lies, damned lies and then there’s statistics.
Instead of letting the stats tell the story, you’re doing exactly the opposite. You telling the story and forcing the stats in that fit that story. It’s called a bias. It’s not accurate and it’s not a fair way to explain away the truth.
Martin > Landry. Anyone in thr NBA would agree with that. Now was that the only motivator for the deal? Nope. End of story.
Landry on the Rockets > Martin on the Kings
Martin on the Rockets > Landry on the Kings.
End of story.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
by NewEraKings on Jan 23, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
I see a common denominator here
Rockets > Kings
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
Agreed on both counts
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
And who is surprised by this?
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Smills do you really think that the Junkie tore down Martin in his post?
If so, then it would make me doubt your ability to judge (objectively) whether he is making valid arguments or not. You appear to have such a pro Kevin bias that you will react to anything questioning Martins value to the Kings as a personal attack against Kevin Martin.
I would argue two points. First, it is too early to judge if this was a good trade for the Kings or not. This trade will only be able to be evaluated in context after the next CBA is is ratified and the value of the cap space obtained in the trade can be determined. If a team having financial flexibility is at a major advantage post new CBA and allows the Kings to obtain a player (for example) who has to be jettisoned by his former team because his current team can’t afford to keep him and would not otherwise be available, then we would judge the trade to be a success.
On the other hand, value in the NBA is not a constant and tends to fluctuate. For example, prior to this season large expiring contracts were very valuable and if a team had one they could expect to trade the expiring contract (s) for highly valued players from teams desperate to get under the Lux Tax threshold or to significantly reduce their Lux Tax payment to the league. This season there are only 8 teams on track to have to pay the luxury tax to the league and there are also a bunch of expiring contracts. So with a large supply of expiring contracts and historically low demand for them, their value has dropped a lot. It looks like many teams will simply let their large contracts expire because they have very little trade value.
Nobody knows for certain what the next CBA looks like. It is possible that it won’t put additional financial pressure on teams to unload good players where they can be scooped up by teams having financial flexibility. Right now teams like the Kings are hoping the fact that they will be well under the cap will give them a significant strategic advantage over the teams who are already well over the cap and are close to the Luxury Tax line. I can see potential situations where the Kings under the next CBA could look very much like the Bucks with Michael Redd’s contract thinking that they have an asset only to see the value of that asset largely evaporate. Then the Martin/Landry trade will only be able to be finally evaluated by who the King’s go to market and get. They were hoping that the cap space they obtained in the trade would be more valuable than usual and if it isn’t then the trade won’t look as good down the road.
My second point is that I believe that the Junkie has pretty well shown that even if Martin is clearly better than Landry, he is not $7 mil better and so represents a good value to the Kings. Part of the reason King’s fans (all fans really) tend to over value their players, especially the ones that have been drafted by their is that they feel like they have a personal relationship with that player. Kevin is a really good dude and when he became a very good player he took on value to SacTown that exceeded his basketball value to other teams. Speaking for myself I have posted flaming bag comments on other sites that dared question any aspect of Kevin Martin’s game.
"It ain't Chinese algebra" - Tony Allen from Basketbawful
by Bluejohn on Jan 23, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I am curious why you think I cherry-picked stats
If I wanted to find stats to fit my argument, I could have used eFG (less credit for 3s) instead of true shooting percentage and Win Score (a metric that is know for favoring big men) instead of PER. Those statistics are more favorable to Martin. I think I did let the statistics tell the story. I am sorry if you did not like their conclusion.
I also don’t think I was tearing down Martin or building up Landry. Yes, the analysis shows the two to be closer in value. However, I do credit Martin for being a great scorer and certainly was perfectly critical of Landry too. Landry is a very efficient scorer, who also brings little else to the team.
Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson is a good analogy....
….although probably not on the surface when you factor in everything that was going on with that deal.
Here is a link from B-Ref on all players with 20+ USG this season in the NBA. (It’s the best you can do given the circumstances.)
Excellent writeup SPTS.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Great write up
A couple of nits to pick. You note that J-Rich was part if the Carter trade, but you failed to mention that he netted the Warriors a #8 pick when they traded him to Charlotte not too long ago. Also, Ray Allen was worth a #5 pick when Seattle dealt him to Boston.
Assessing Martin’s talent level is a matter of opinion, I suppose, but if you look at 2 guards in the league this year, here are the guys that are clearly better than Martin, along with their salary: Kobe ($25m), Wade ($14m), Ginobli ($12m), Roy (pre-injuries – $14m). That’s it. Now, add the 2 guards that are within range of Martin (a little better or worse, depending on your opinion of him and them): Ellis ($11m), E.Gordon ($3m – still on rookie deal), J.Johnson ($16m), R.Allen ($10m), Richardson ($14m), Iguodala ($12m).
So, Martin is reasonably paid at his position, and will be for the next couple of years. His contract is at least fair value, and as such is not really a mark to be held against him. Adding, he is clearly in the conversation of who’s-who at the 2 guard position. Landry, on the other hand…
Landry will be a free agent at the end of the season, and will more than likely grab at least a 5 year MLE next season. This for a nice player that has proven that he can be an elite 6th man, but has not proven that he can be an effective and consistent starter (blame the KIngs or Westphal or Petrie or Evans or the boogie, the fact remains that he has not proven himself as an NBA starter). He will probably be more than what the Kings want to spend, and he will be gone.
So what you are left with is trading Kevin Martin for a year and a half rental of an elite 6th man. That is a bad trade, a very bad trade indeed. That said, the final chapter will not be written until the Kings utilize the cap space that this deal generated. If the player(s) they bring in benefit this squad more than Martin, then all is well and a bad deal becomes a good to great deal.
So I have to respectfully and strongly disagree with your closing statement, as it is absolutely not time to move on. It won’t be time to move on until the Kings utilize that cap space, and we see the results. Because until that time comes, the Martin for Landry trade is a one-sided hosing of the KIngs. Until that cap space is utilized, the KIngs traded one of the better and reasonably paid 2 guards in the league for a 6th man with an all but expiring contract.
Let’s see what the Kings do with the cap space. Then it will be time to move on.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jan 23, 2011 9:23 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
Also J-Rich
managed to let the Suns grab Gortat (an actual center, something they needed), and rectify the mistake of trading for Hedo.
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
Good post
Although, for the SGs you list, I would argue that most of them bring a lot more to the table than Martin. They score, pass, rebound and play D – further justifying their contract. And some of them are vastly overpaid. Pointing out one team’s mistake doesn’t justify us making the same one. Right now the league is surprisingly deficient in quality SGs. If you can nab a star there, it’s worth it, but I don’t think it’s healthy for a franchise to overspend on a player there just because he is better than the alternatives. If anything, grab a good role player there and invest the money in other positions.
You are right on your second point though. We sill simply have to see what the Kings do with the cap space and what they get for Landry before an accurate judgment can be made.
Blanked on the first JRich trade. That should have been included. Ray Allen I am on the fence with. His value and reputation was much higher at the time he was traded. I’m not sure if he fits on the list.
Well, let's use Ellis as a comparison
The two have always been seemingly linked. They make about the same money. They are both known as offensive players that don’t bring a lot of defense to the table. Per 36, Martin outscores Ellis 26.9-22.6. They both grab 3 boards, while Ellis bests Martin at assists 5-3 and steals 2-1. These guys are a push. So, is Landry worth Monta Ellis?
Meanwhile, Brandon Bass and Carl Landry both score 16.3-16.4 points on a Per 36. Bass bests Landry 8.2-6.4 on the boards, and neither one of them blocks a shot per 36. Bass is a better rebounder, but let’s call this a push. So, would you trade Martin for Brandon Bass? Would you trade Ellis for Brandon Bass?
For me, the math is simple. On talent, this was a very bad trade for the Kings. Now, if they wind up adding more talent with the available cap space, that changes things. But if this trade goes down in history as Martin for Landry, yuck.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jan 23, 2011 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
If they were both paid the same amount of money
and played on the same team or had similar opportunities, your line of thinking would have more merit.
Maybe a fair question is: do you think Martin would be worth $7-8 million a year more than Landry if both played for the Rockets?
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
I don't think that is a fair question, actually
Maybe it’s a more relevant question if Landry is under contract for another year or two at $3 million, but that is sadly not the case.
The fair question is, is a year and a half rental of an elite 6th man that has yet to prove that he can be a consistent starter better or worse than having one of the top ten 2 guards at fair contract value?
I said it the day after the trade – this is a bad deal right up to the moment that the Kings use the available cap space to acquire upper tier talent. That has not happened yet, and the play of Martin and Landry since the trade have given me no reason to change my mind.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I think it's closer than you think
and I think the post did a great job of laying out the reasons why.
Offensively, in the right system and when healthy, Kevin is a very talented guard, Overall, taking other factors of the game into account, I don’t see him as a top 10 2 guard, unless you want to give an awful lot of weight to his offensive numbers and relative health this season.
And just remember we got Landry AND saved more than $30 million.
Martin is on a far better team with a far better coach, and that team is still only 11th in the West. Would the Kings be improved if Martin was on the team now? How would his numbers look if he was still on the Kings, and how would Landry be valued as a member of the Rockets?
All fair questions, and all addressed in the post.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
I think that it was a great post, too
Rec’d it, in fact. I still think that it’s a lousy trade.
You and I are going to have to disagree as it pertains to Martin’s ranking amongst 2 guards. I listed the guys that I thought were on a par with him earlier. It’s certainly your right to think less of him. I don’t.
We only save $30 million if we don’t acquire other players. I suppose that is good for the Maloofs, but not so great for me as a fan. The savings at the end of this season will be about $11 million. If that was all the deal was about, we should have turned around and dealt Landry for Jermaine Taylor. That would have saved us a couple million more.
Does Steve Nash suddenly suck because the Suns are playing on a par with Houston? Or is Phoenix surviving to the extent that they are because of Nash. It would be interesting to see how Houston would fare with a healthy Yao added to the mix.
In closing, I agree that this was a great post. But it does not change the fact that the Kings, in my opinion, traded a better player for a worse player, a player that they could wind up losing and getting nothing in return (except, I suppose, another $3 million in cap space). For emphasis, until they utilize that gained cap space, they traded one of the NBA’s elite scorers for a 6th man. That’s simply a bad trade.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Scoring last two seasons
Martin 1,948 points
Landry 1,849 points
Like I said, closer than you think.
There are a number of quality 2 guards in the league. If you take into account their total game, injuries, play on both sides of the ball, some of the better ones include, in no particularly order, Wade, Kobe, Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Ellis, Gordon, Igoudala, J-Rich, Steven Jackson, Carter, Roy, Jason Terry, Salmons, JR Smith, Crawford, Afflalo, Sefolosha and Martin, to name a few. I’d put Kevin closer to the bottom of that list than the top.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
by NewEraKings on Jan 23, 2011 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
Of players on that list and based on talent and nothing else (with salary it becomes a lot more complicated)...
…I’d take Wade, Kobe, Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Allen, I view Monta Ellis as a push myself but that’s a matter of opinion, Gordon, Igoudala, Richardson (but just barely and definitely for this team), Roy when healthy, Afflalo if only because I think he fits with the Kings and not because he is better than Martin.
Everyone else has different issue’s. Jason Terry is a talented 6th man, I don’t know he’s an elite talent. Certainly not a player that I would take over Martin on talent alone. Ditto with Jamal Crawford. Stephen Jackson is one of the 3 or 4 most talented players on this list and the biggest knucklehead (which is saying something when you have JR Smith on this list), and speaking of Smith, no thanks to that chucklehead. I like Thabo Sefolosha if you have a OKC Thunder type team, but not with the Kings. His skill-set doesn’t really complement Tyreke as much as he would need to be to be anything close to an ideal fit. I’ve never been a big fan of Vince Carter but he’s a better overall talent, if not player, if everything is going well. I would argue that’s not been the case for VC lately.
John Salmons? Seriously?
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Clarification on Jason Richardson
I consider him a slightly better player than Martin but not by much and I don’t think he’d necessarily help the Kings a great deal anyway.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
If it's a lousy trade...
…it’s because the player had relatively low value and what not. So you are upset more or less with the timing of the trade, and, quite honestly, I think it’s a placebo.
In closing, I agree that this was a great post. But it does not change the fact that the Kings, in my opinion, traded a better player for a worse player, a player that they could wind up losing and getting nothing in return (except, I suppose, another $3 million in cap space)
This might be more true if a lot of Landry’s value wasn’t duplicated and bested by DeMarcus Cousins. That changes Landry’s value a great deal. Assuming the Kings had kept Martin, there is no guarantee that the Kings would have gotten Cousins.
It’s funny that the more intelligent part of the fanbase is screaming about this (let’s say StR represents that—which it certainly does), and it’s funny that the casual fan isn’t that caught up over it. Kinda ironic in many ways I think.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
bingo
I agree. If they bring in someone good this offseason, I personally will be satisfied with the trade. If they just sit on the money … it will be a horrible trade.
In all fairness
if they refuse to spend the money, we have much bigger problems than the trade.
At that point the questions changes from, “did Petrie do the right thing as a GM” to “are our owners in a financial position to even be owning a NBA team.”
Great Post, SJUNKIE
Just curious, though, why not include comparisons post trade in 2010 (24 and 28 games total)?
K-Mart 2010 HOU 58.6%(TS) 25.32(USG) 62.3 (AST%) 17.02(PER)
Carl 2010 (SAC) 56.8%(TS) 20.78 (USG) 55.8 (AST%) 16.02 (PER)
Not sure if they change the conclusions, but I think they should be included.
I would hesitate to compare K-Mart and his 16.95 PER around the time he was battling injury. I would toss it out relative to the years he was relatively injury-free as his PER has been closer to 20 in multiple years:
2007: 20.13 PER
2008: 20.95 PER
2009: 19.17 PER
2010: 17.20 PER (average SAC and HOU)
2011: 22.56 PER
Kevin’s injury history has to be factored into the analysis because he had lingering leg issues (calf and ankle, IIRC) that hindered his ability to get to the rim. His drop in PER from over 20 to 17 in 2010 was tied to less than full health. And it was a primary motivation in doing the deal, IMO.
Geoff had to wonder if a super talented but skinny SG who spent so much time attacking the rim and ending up taking spills could stay healthy over life of large contract. I would bet too that the recollection of C-Webb and a star turning into a shell of his former self weighed on his thought process.
Kevin is a SG at 180 pounds going up against guys 20 to 40 pounds stronger. I think there were legitimate concerns his body could and would breakdown with his size and style of play. And the evidence was there. In retrospect, at least this season, those concerns are unfounded, and the Rockets are reaping the dividends.
I give K-Mart all the credit for his summer work and dedication with David Thorpe to regain his scoring prowess to career best levels. A few of our players, Landry included, who came into camp out of shape, could learn from his professionalism.
At the time Geoff was also influenced by PW and his upward standing within the organization, and the coaches desire for increased toughness. I wonder now if PW has as much influence over personnel decisions. Highly doubtful.
The book on this trade is open, pending the future of Landry with team, or lack thereof. But right now it does not look pretty.
I didn't use the 2010 numbers because
Martin wasn’t playing as well. People are more upset this year because of his current numbers. If I used 2010 it would have looked more favorable to Landry and I didn’t want to be accused of bias or have people saying “Martin was hurt last year, you should be looking at this season.”
good read
kevin is a lot better player,shooter etc.he is gone because of money,bottom line.yes we should of got more on the trade.yes carl is a averge player.so lets see what we get for him because he wants out of sac.tried of looseing and our coach sucks.so lets hope geoff does not screw this trade up.
by cowboyron96@yahoo.com on Jan 23, 2011 10:50 AM PST reply actions
Well done sir!
I was just going to gloss over this thing at first but you took an awesome approach and really helped create some interesting dialogue in here. I personally disagree about the deal being a wash but, having said, I must admit this is some quality stuff. Rec’d.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
(sigh)
Tell my lying eyes.
I think it’s clear (at least to me) that KM does what a SG is supposed to do, score efficiently, better than Landry does what a PF is supposed to do.
"But screw your courage to the stiking place - and we'll not fail"
Macbeth Act I, Sc VII
Good post, but I'm not buying it
Kevin Martin is a better player than Carl Landry just about any way you look at it. The more I think about this trade, the more it looks like a straight salary dump to save the team money in the short term.
Carl Landry was the absolute perfect player to be used in this type of salary dump. His contract was far smaller than Kevin’s, and he was just talented enough that the team could sell it as a basketball decision to their fans. That’s the most important part. Fans don’t like when their team makes decisions based on money instead of basketball, but if they make it look good enough, then we’ll convince ourselves that it was a basketball decision. With that goal in mind, Petrie gets an A+ for the trade on my scorecard. He saved the team a ton of money and convinced most of us (for at least a while) that the motivation for the trade was to improve the team. It really was a brilliant move if you look at from that point of view.
However, pining for a player who a number of fans bashed while he is on the team isn’t constructive.
There isn’t a player on the Kings roster who “a number of fans” haven’t bashed. I like your post and respect your numbers. But to decide a player’s fate by weather or not some fans bashed him is pointless.
I was never focused on whether or not we got equal value back, but that we pulled the trigger with way too little information. What you can’t judge is whether or not an Evans Martin back court might have worked because Evans was a rookie and Martin was injured most of the time. Which, coincidentally, was one of the big reasons the trade K-Mart now crowd wanted him gone. He was an injury waiting to happen. My take then and now was that he had sustained several non related injuries. You couldn’t say he had bad knees, ankles, etc.
At the end of the day, if we end up signing a great player with our free cash, I think most of us knocking this trade will be at least okay with it. If we don’t, you’re argument goes out the window because you’ll be comparing the stats of a guy who started for us and Houston at a position we need against . . .
No one.
[THIS SPACE FOR RENT]
Helping the Maloofs save their casino (and the Kings) one post at a time.
This raises the question as to why the Kings did not attempt
to extend Top Hat when they had the chance last summer? Or at least make a show of faith offer to foster relationship going forward. Would a 5 year/35 million dollar extension, for example, been all that restrictive to future cap flexibility? I don’t think so. Yet no overtures were ever made.
It could be argued too if Carl Landry was currently locked in at a fair market contract at 5 year / 35 million, or something reasonable thereabouts, he would have more trade value to land someone like Iggy or Danny Granger, now or this off-season. Instead the Kings are left in precarious spot when they can not afford to bleed talent.
They couldn't blob.
That’s why.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Really?
OK, I stand corrected. I thought at some point last season the Kings had the opportunity to extend his deal. I know he’s own the second contract and third year of 3 year deal, but assumed he could have renegotiated before this season started.
Nope they cannot.
A quirk of the CBA.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
because it was a salary dump
Landry was just a sweetener Kings PR can spin to appease angry fans. Of course I don’t really know if this is true. I’m not even sure I believe it but it is a very real possibility. First & foremost sports is a bussiness. As good of owners the Maloofs have been times are very very different now. Sometimes in bussiness you do what you have to do even if it’s not what you want to do.
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jan 24, 2011 9:50 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don't get this. At all.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 24, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
So worries
It was a really small nit pick. Obviously I’m not a fan of the trade, but your research is great and your numbers are solid. It at least helps explain what GP was thinking. Especially when we had no low post scorers up front. Wish it had worked out better.
[THIS SPACE FOR RENT]
Helping the Maloofs save their casino (and the Kings) one post at a time.
by SavageBeast on Jan 24, 2011 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Good read. Now here's a few stats for you that's more "apples for apples" as far as player & positioning goes
I used last seasons stats because it applies to this years salaries.
Amare Stoudemire 23.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 1 ast, %55 FG in 34.6 minutes
New salary this year $16,486,611
David Lee 20.2 pts, 11.7 rebounds, 3.6 ast, %55 FG, in 37.3 minutes
New salary this year $10,800,000
Same player right? Not exactly. David Lee is widely recognized a good to very good player while Amare has proven this year to be a franchise changing player. Now neither Landry or Martin are franchise changing players but Martin on the right team can be a real difference maker. Atleast a very good 2nd scoring option on a playoff team while Landry is most likely a 6th man on a good playoff team.
Point is stats don’t always tell the story. I will say one thing that isn’t mentioned enough on both sides of the argument. If this coaching staff does a better job of incorperating Martin back into the offense this trade might not ever have happened.
Also If the coaching staff does a better job of fitting Landry into our offense maybe right now we would be discussing how much it would take to keep Landry as opposed to how we can get rid of him & get something of value in return. Negating this whole argument. So we can blame Petrie all day & rightfully so but the coaching staff should also bear a lot of the blame imo
I love beating dead horses.
Not so far
but Martin on the right team can be a real difference maker. At least a very good 2nd scoring option on a playoff team while Landry is most likely a 6th man on a good playoff team.
Martin is in his seventh season and has scored more than 10 points a game for one playoff team, and he was the seventh leading scorer on that team on a per-game basis. Right now Houston is 11th in the West, so you may be puffing up his value just a tad.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
I'm not sure I fully understand your reply
but I’ll try to respond anyway. Martin is #1 on Houston because there is no real #1. The same applies when he was in Sac. Even when he had Bibby & Artest. He was still playing with 2 #2s. Bibby was probably a #3 at best actually with Artest being a not great but decent #2. No matter how many #2s you have it doesn’t make a #1
Also like I mentioned it doesn’t help when you have terrible coaching. Which is what Martin had most of his best years here
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jan 24, 2011 7:36 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Clarification
You called Kevin “at least a very good 2nd scoring option on a playoff team.” I just pointed out he hasn’t actually done that yet.
"Remember now, patience and stop the whining. This is something we have to endure to get better. We have no choice. Stick with Petrie, stick with Westphal, stick with Tyreke, stick it to the fans."
ok I understand
Good point
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jan 24, 2011 9:37 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
This comparison is interesting (Lee - Stoudemire)
Amare certainly has out-performed last season and created more O for himself this year (much lower %assisted than Lee has ever had) and proved he was not simply carried by Nash.
However, if you want to look for the reason for the Knicks’ improvement, don’t forget that last year they had 2 players with a PER above 15. Lee at over 20 and Harrington at 16.7.
This year they have Amare at an amazing 24, Felton at 19.7 (huge considering how much D’Antoni uses PGs in his O), Chandler at over 17 and Gallinari at over 15. On top of that, they are getting more contributions from Douglass, Fields and others. So while Amare gets a lot of credit for being the star. It makes for a reasonable debate as to how good the Knicks would be if you simply swapped Lee onto the current roster for Amare. My guess is a few games worse since Lee cannot create as many shots. However, Felton’s presence as well at Chandler’s improvement would probably still make this year’s team much better than last year’s.
Nice response
My only counter would be most basketball people(I assume of course) including the Knicks GM obviously felt Amare was worth $30-40 million more than Lee even though they put up nearly identical stats, both are mediocre(at best) defenders, & both are in their prime. Amare has even had major knee surgery. So why is that?
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jan 26, 2011 4:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Amare's a more dynamic player for one thing.
I’d take Amare over Lee myself even though I’m no great Amare Stoudemire fan.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
I think the main difference is Amare's ability to create scoring opportunities
Lee’s is a great, efficient player. Someone who will be a good fit in the right situation. However, over 60% of his FGs have always been assisted. If you start factoring in those scored off of O-boards, you probably would find he creates very few shots for himself.
Amare can create offense and put pressure on the defense. There’s is definite value in that.
As to the money. That one is more difficult. At the very least Amare has more star power. When you’re a market like NY and coming off a string of disappointing seasons and cleared all your cap space to sign stars, that star power matters.
Amare probably would have stayed in Phoenix had he gotten the same deal in Phoenix that he had in New York.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
Agree.
NY had to make a splash. Saying to their fans they stunk and traded away everything to keep Lee and sign Felton would have caused riots in NY.
Suns need to blow things up. Amare was their first step towards that, now they need to trade Nash. Really for everyone’s sake. Nash deserves to compete for a title. We deserve to see that. And Suns fans deserve better than watching their team slowly decompose.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 27, 2011 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed SPTS.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.
The Suns are going nowhere
Fast though.
"But screw your courage to the stiking place - and we'll not fail"
Macbeth Act I, Sc VII
by lietothegirls on Jan 27, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
More like 12 these days . . . .
"But screw your courage to the stiking place - and we'll not fail"
Macbeth Act I, Sc VII
by lietothegirls on Jan 27, 2011 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
I'm looking forward to Carl putting up Houston-like numbers next season...
…I just hope it’s with the Kings…
by getPGwithbounce on Jan 23, 2011 9:50 PM PST reply actions
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