Big Men Scoring Vs. Assist Rate

How important is playmaking and creating assists to the Center and PF game?   I created a data base that included all PFs and Centers who have played in 20+ games and averaged at least 15+ MPG.   The charts show the Field Goals Attempted and Made at the Rim.   What the shooting percentages were at the rim and what percentage of the Made FG’s were assisted.   And here are some of the facts that I found.

Of the top 32 Centers and 40 PFs, the Kings had 4 players among those with the lowest percentage of assisted baskets.  And of the 10 players who have the least amount of assisted baskets only DeMarcus, Carl, JT, and Chris Bosh scored above the league average FG% of 66.1% at the rim.  Here’s the top 10.

Due to the differences in Minutes per Game, the FGA’s and Made FG’s were adjusted to 40 MPG so that scoring could be compared.   As you can see the league averages for both the Center and PF are very similar so I’m using the PF numbers as my baseline.

Of the 21 players with a FG% at the rim above the league average of 66.1%, DeMarcus has the lowest number of assisted baskets at 32.1%, JT has the 2nd lowest at 41%, and Carl has the 3rd lowest at 42.2%.   Players 4-6 have assist rates in the upper 40’s,  7-11 have assist rates in the upper 50’s and the remaining 10 players all had an assist rate above the league average of 60.2%.

Out of the 72 players I charted only 8 players besides DMC, JT & Carl were able to shoot at a higher FG% than the league average while being below average in assisted baskets.    They are Chris Bosh, Amir Johnson, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Lamar Odom, Darko Milicic, and Pau Gasol.

Of the 10 players with the highest FGM at the rim per 40 minutes only Zack Randolph and DeMarcus have an assist rate more than 10% below the league average.   Howard , Odom, Stoudemire and Bogut, all of who are All-Stars were the only other players below the league average Ast% of 60.2%

Of the top 21 Centers in FGA’s at the rim, only DeMarcus (32.1%), JT (41%), Sammy (46.7%), and JaVale McGee (45.9%) have an assisted basket percentage below 50%.   Four others have an Ast% between 50-55%, and four other have between 55-60%.

Conclusion:   Only 5 players, who aren’t an All-Star, are shooting at a high percentage at the rim without having at least the league average in assisted baskets.   The All-Stars that have done it so far this season are Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Al Horford.   And, the non-stars that have done it are DeMarcus, Carl, JT, Amir Johnson, Darko Milicic.

One might assume that DeMarcus, Carl and JT have such high FG%’s because of their offensive rebounding.   But, Dalembert has the 2nd highest Offensive Rebounding Rate (ORR) among centers and the 2nd worst FG%.   Cousins is 11th in ORR while JT ranks 20th and below the league average.     Carl ranks 18th among PF’s although he does rebound better than both the Center and PF average and about 0.7% better than JT.   So, the only possible answer for their high FG% at the rim, considering that they get the fewest assisted baskets and they aren’t exceptional Offensive rebounders, is that they are able to create their own shot around the rim and make them at a high rate.

Brendon Haywood leads everyone in FG% at the rim with 75.9%, and DeMarcus and Carl are already shooting around 72% at the rim.   So their FG% might not increase all that much if they were to get more assisted baskets, but it would definitely help JT (66.1%) and Sammy (46.9%) could really use the help.

But, DeMarcus is only 17th in FGA’s, JT is 25th in FGA’s, Dalembert is 27th, and Carl is 31st.   So, it seems like we have room to increase our scoring at the rim, if we had more playmaking that created more easy assisted baskets for our 4 top bigs.   Just how many more Assisted Baskets would each player have to get to bring them in line with the League Average?    Cousins would need 2, and the other 3 would need 1 each for a total of 5 more baskets or 10 more points in the paint per game.   Although that would make the Kings #1 in Made Baskets at the rim and #2 in Attempts at the rim, so around 3 is probably more realistic.

The upside is that in spite of our youth, we have 3 very good and efficient bigs who play at the rim as well as most of the top All-Stars in the league.   The downside is that DeMarcus barely ranks in the top 40 among Centers and PFs in creating assists for his teammates with a 1.6 APG average, and the other 3 aren’t even in the top 50 with APG around 0.7.   So, they really aren’t helping each other, and that means that unless they can improve that part of their game, the assists are going to have to come from the guards and SF’s.   And right now, Beno ranks 34th among guards in assists at the rim and Tyreke ranks 39th.   Donte ranks 31st among SF’s and Omri ranks 33rd, but their assist rate is less than 0.5 per game so it doesn’t look like they can help much unless they start driving to the basket more.    And, that doesn’t seem to be in PW’s game plan for the SF position.

The immediate solution would appear to be run more plays to get open shots for our PFs and Centers.   Alley-oops, back screens and pick & rolls are the first things that come to mind.   Definitely, we need more emphasis on passing inside rather than always kicking out deep from Tyreke.    And maybe, the eventual answer is to acquiring a playmaking PG.   Until then we should be very happy that we are lucky enough to have such outstanding bigs as DeMarcus, Carl, and JT.

Note: This data was compiled before the Denver game in which Tyreke had 12 assists and 4 of the 12 were at the rim.   Even so, DMC, JT, Carl & Sam were 6 of 9 at the rim with 3 assisted baskets for a Ast% of 50% which is still below the league average of 60.2%.