FanPost

Settling the Omri-Donte discussion for once and for ... the foreseeable future?

 

Up until the start of the season, we were still entertained by the discussions regarding our SF position, and we had team Omri and team Donte. And in case you are wondering, I don't know how to do an apostrophe. Sorry.

Before opening night, Greene was anointed the starter, and PW stated that he loved Casspi's energy off the bench. Of course, shortly after starting on opening night, Greene fell out of the rotation, and it took some time to retain his starting spot. In that time, Casspi had started a few games, but had also looked on from the bench as JT played some SF.  Once Greene got back into the starting spot, he had some nice games, and Casspi received some DNP-CD's. More recently, PW made another change and inserted Cisco into the starting line-up at SF, at the expense of Greene. After that change, the Kings have regained a bit of their winning ways.

This post is not meant to attack PW. I'm just sketching the background. This post is meant to see if some preliminary conclusions can be drawn regarding the battle for rotation minutes between Greene and Casspi. More after the jump.  

Let's start with the obvious, the hard stats. I am aware of the relative size of this sample size, with Casspi playing 31 games (starting 8), and Greene playing 27 games (starting 18).

MP 

FG%

3P%

FT%

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

CASSPI:

22.5

.422

.415

.732

0.8

3.2

4.0

0.8

0.8

0.2

1.0

1.7

9.1

GREENE:

18.5

.374

.296

.517

0.8

1.9

2.7

1.0

0.6

0.4

1.0

1.4

6.1

 

Basically, Casspi is besting Greene in every statistical category, except assist and blocks. Most of all, the disparity in shooting percentages is significant. Rebounding also gives Casspi a sizeable advantage.

 

Of course, we have to take into account that Greene is playing an average of 4 fewer minutes per game. Casspi’s numbers, especially points and rebounds, are also higher on a per 36 minutes projection, but I don’t believe that a projection to per 36 minutes stats really does the trick to compensate. The thing is that these are still young players, and they both require playing time to get into a groove and be comfortable in a game. So I wanted to compare their stats for the games where they play 25 minutes or more. This is an arbitrary cut-off point, but the fact that both players had 10 games each in that category was the deciding factor here.

 

I concede that this measurement is not ideal either, since one could argue that in these games, the respective players were apparently playing well, which helped them to stay in the game. However, the exact opposite could be argued as well; they played well, because they got enough time to settle into their respective games. And since either of these reasons would apply to both players, I think it evens things out. 

 

So here are the stats when both players played at least 25 minutes (asterisk denotes decrease):

 

MP 

FG%

3P%

FT%

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

CASSPI:

31.4

.523

.508

.562*

1.0

4.9

5.9

1.2

0.7

0.1*

0.9

2.4

15.0

GREENE:

28.5

.388

.282*

.600

1.2

3.2

4.4

1.7

0.9

0.8

1.6*

1.8

9.6

 

What stands out is the sizeable increase in FG% and 3P% of Omri. Weird enough, his FT% is down, which may be due to small sample size (only 15 Ft attempts in these 10 games). The same cannot be said for Donte. His FG% is up by only a fraction, and his 3P% is down. This is worrying. While Casspi seemingly finds his stroke with increased playing time, this doesn’t appear to be the case for Greene.  

 

The other stats, I compared to the overall stats for this seasons (just under the jump), and in relation to the overall increase in playing time for these 10 games.

 

MP 

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PTS

CASSPI:

.400

.475

.500

.125*

.400

.100

.648

GREENE:

.540

.629

.700

.333

.500

.600*

.573

 

So Casspi played 40% more minutes, which netted him 47% more rebounds, 50% more assists (while bringing down the number of turnovers!), and an increase in points of almost 65%. His steals went down. Greene played 54% more minutes in the 10 games he played over 25 minutes, and upped his rebounding by 63% his total points by 57% and so forth. His increase in assists is almost negated by an increase in turnovers.   

 

What does this tell us? I think the story is that Casspi separates himself from Greene by scoring at a significant higher clip and with a relative higher increase in points. Greene doesn’t hit his 3-pointers with more accuracy when he has time to grow into the game, and thus commands a higher volume of shots to increase his scoring productivity. He does get better on the boards, but not enough to close the gap with Casspi, who is a significantly better rebounder. Both players don’t have that many assists, blocks, or steals to make a significant impact.

 

Of course, these numbers don’t show the whole story. Defense, which is supposed to be Donte’s calling card, is only reflected in stats to a certain extent. On the other hand, neither are hustle and energy, Omri’s main intangibles. And on a personal note, I have seen only a few games where Donte really showed himself to be a good defender. The difference between these two on defense is not as big as some people believe, in my opinion. Add to that the fact that PW has focused more on offense lately, and you can see why it is difficult for Donte to get many minutes. And if you look at his meagre shooting percentages, especially from 3 (which is a big part of PW’s job description for the SF spot), it doesn’t get better. The truth is, when Donte got extended playing time, he didn’t take advantage.

 

Omri did take advantage, with both hands. His numbers seem to indicate that PW should consider giving him more playing time. Scoring 15 points along with 6 rebounds and high shooting percentages from the field and for 3 in 31 minutes is impressive, and not just for a second-year NBA player. Also, he has displayed some pesky, gritty defense, and a knack for hitting important shots down the stretch of a game. As the title suggests, however, this is a team coached by PW. If Omri calls down or hits a bad streak (as is bound to happen at one point), things can change fast under PW.  

 

One final thought on Greene. What happens if Landry and Dalembert leave the team at the end of this season, and we get no post player in return? And what if Green is still with the team at that time?  Is it possible that then Greene will get to hear he has to bulk up for next season – adding muscle, not fat – so he can play as a 4 or a stretch 5? Wouldn’t that be ironic?

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker