Let’s just say that the NBPA ratifies the current proposal in some form or another and the NBA schedulers are able to start a 72 game schedule on 15 December (btw: back to back to back = injury city. The owners should use the extra savings to hire a second trainer).  Hey, all’s well and good. Play ball!

But let’s just say that is not the case and the meetings break down and there is no season. What then?

For the players:

The Pros: Hold out for a larger percentage of overall revenue, win some victories in the arena of player movement and do so for the next ten years. Stand your ground.  Use the Roundball Passport: The opportunity to play basketball in Europe or Asia, see the world!  Added benefit:  a  good story to tell the grand kids and Derek Fisher gets a full schedule of motivational speaker fees for various national Union conventions and has some weight when he backs a political candidate.

The Cons: A full season of play lost for someone with just so many years of top level play in them, A full season of lost salary A full season of lost salary (yup, twice). A full season of lost endorsements. A full season of lost relevance (ego check). The risk that even after a fully successful decertification the deal would be the same as today, or worse.

For the Owners:          

The Pros: Salary savings. Associated cost savings. A chance that a new deal will be even more employer favorable.

The Cons: Lost income from tickets sales, promotions, advertising, merchandising, TV and the risk to future TV contract income, lost fans many of whom will not return, the risk that a fully successful decertification will produce a more labor favorable outcome.

To me, this just highlights what has always been the owners philosophical ace in the hole. You know, they say that the best mind set to any negotiation is the willingness to get up from the table and walk away.

Can the players do that?

Who is the "average" NBA player? 20 something male with (?) 2 years of college making $5.5M/year salary, playing for 6(?) seasons. Is he willing to give up a year of his pro career for these potential benefits?

I just don’t see it. The risk to benefit ratio does not add up. Let the games begin!