Kings Free Agency: This may not be the time for big moves
by stalbaum on Nov 27, 2011 1:21 AM PST
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PrintI took the opportunity to follow a link from somewhere in SBNation to Ken Berger's article "What's in the deal and how it got done" on SI.com. It is a good overview of some of the major bullet points of the deal, and two of those points are telling me that it is going to be a potentially dangerous time for the Kings to spend big money on any free agent beyond Marcus Thornton.
The most important fact to realize is that, just as so often happens at our nearby State Capitol, much of the pain is postponed until later in the CBA. First and foremost is that the new luxury tax rates don't kick in until 2013. Rates remain the same as under the current CBA for 2011-12 and 2012-13. Second, sign-and-trade rules also remain the same for the first two years. Even with changes like new the repeater tax (I'm not sure when the clock starts on that, btw) and new mid-level and extend-and-trade rules, we can - I'd say we should - still expect that for the next two years owners whose teams are on the bubble (of which there are many kinds) are going to feel pressure to overpay players to reach the "next level". Not to mention, the new "Room Exception", (2.5 million for teams under the tax), can only put more fuel on the inflationary fire of a lockout shortened free agent period. Beware, free agency will be an exciting mess this year.
Altogether, and in an already relatively weak free agent class, we will probably find that the good money chasing good players will be max money, after which things will devolve into good money chasing average (or worse) players. For example, with the league-wide dearth of quality bigs (oh, poor Houston), Samuel Dalembert could very easily re-up for a contract larger than the recently completed deal for which he was at least slightly overpaid. Yes he could.
What does that mean for the Kings? First, as a small market team entering a new CBA that should in fact help small market teams in the longer run, Jeff Petrie must continue to be patient and smart. Yes, have some priorities like Thornton, with whom we have the advantage of Restricted Free Agency. Or if you are going to write some max checks, make sure it is for really solid bodies like Marc Gasol or Nene, not injured or aging (but still excellent) players like David West or Tyson Chandler.
Plus, keeping the powder in the horn might be a good thing in case of amnesty apples that may fall from the sky as other teams make room to overpay. Finally, the obvious: next year's free agent class is - at least - a quality one even if the economics the owners were seeking will not be in full effect by then.
We with few exceptions better off to develop young players instead, and frankly, I think we can do quite nicely with Jimmer and JJ on board, and DMC in his second year.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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I can only think of two others who wear the monocle
The Plantar Peanut guy and Mr. Monopoly.
Hey, Stalbaum – just use your edit option and change Jeff to Geoff in your post. Done and done.
by betweentheeyes on Nov 27, 2011 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
Stalbaum - nice post. rec'd
The thing is – good player or bad – the Kings must spend $26M by the trade deadline. I think Marc Gasol is a possibility because the Kings can, and actually may have to, make a major offer just to hit the spending floor. Denver and some others then add in the next group who may be there after amnesty and there will be a lot of dollars available. A player like Gasol may not be a “max talent” but given the market he will get that money from someone, might as well be the Kings.
Would that addition take them to playoffs? I am conflicted – it’s a very good draft coming up and I would hate to see them lose the pick but would love to see them make the playoffs. That Hickson trade could be an ass biter.
by betweentheeyes on Nov 27, 2011 12:21 PM PST reply actions
They need to spend $49.3 million total.
So the figure is closer to $17.5 million that the Kings have to spend.
I would like to see who gets amnestied as well and then see how the claims process works. Even a player like Elton Brand would be worth a look for $2-3 million a year. Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis might help this team as well and at worst case could be nice trade chips at the deadline. The amnesty rule might be a way for the Kings to load up on talent that they can use in a variety of ways.
The world is not your Trade Machine.
-Ziller
@James_Ham
www.cowbellkingdom.com
Strongly disagree. I think this is a perfect time to try and target some free agents.
You aren’t going to have to really pay Tyreke or DMC for another two seasons and three seasons respectively. If you sign a big 4 or 5 year deal it’s not exactly going to push us to crazy luxury tax land (don’t need to go get a huge signing but just saying).
Futhermore, a strike shortened free agency period is perfect for the Kings. Free agents need to act quick and can’t get away with using small market teams to jack up their price to go where they really want to go (usually resign with their old team) because everything is moving to quick and teams are a lot more serious about their “This offer will only be up for one day” type arguements and it’s harder for agents to play teams against each other.
Heck, I’d even be happy even if the Kings were to just receive some short term but still bad contracts for draft picks but just sayin I think they can go the free agent route too.
I like this idea
if the Kings were to just receive some short term but still bad contracts for draft picks
the kings could stock pile some picks and use them in a trade for a veteran presence at the draft. Use the cap space in some useful way and not just players that are fillers and have little potential.
Still waiting for the Euler of basketball to play for the Kings
draft picks = youth. IMO, this Kings team needs no more youth.
by betweentheeyes on Nov 27, 2011 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
They mean youth, but if they're future picks, they don't mean youth right now.
A commentor on a BEdge article discussing every team’s cap situation was saying that if he were Geoff Petrie, he’d consider trading with Cleveland, giving something valueless (a restricted second rounder) for Antawn Jamison along with draft picks (Sac’s own from the Casspi trade plus two of Miami’s from the LeBron sign-and-trade in 2013 and 2015). Cleveland does this because it wants to get rid of Antawn to free up cap space, but needs to use its amnesty on Baron. Sac would get back its own pick and receive a few picks a few years down the road. We could either keep those because we’ll be more ready to absorb young talent then or we could use them as future trade assets. Meanwhile, we get a year of veteran leadership from a reputed good locker-room guy while not having to make dumb signings to meet the salary minimum and saving space for a time when we’ll need to extend our own guys.
I’m not saying I love that idea, but I don’t hate it either, and I wouldn’t be pissed if Petrie used his cap space for something like that.
I don't know how valuable a 26-30 draft pick is
Historically, it’s not valuable at all, and that’s what those picks would end up being.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on Nov 28, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
You basically have to be pretty damn lucky at that point to get anything better than average
"If you can’t make a profit, you should sell your team." - Michael Jordan (Owner, Charlotte Bobcats)
two things
One, Geoff. My bad.
Two. Yeah wallywagon11, those are good points. On the other hand, in a compressed time period it may also be hard to do the necessary selling to a Nene regarding joining our young core, and agents for a restricted player are going to be looking for offer sheets to negotiate with. I still think you target only players who you really, really want, otherwise just lay low. No pressure to make big signings NOW. Do the youth movement right. (By the way, I think the Kings are about to make the Oklahoma City turn and have a credible, if not playoff, season without a major signing.)
So I’m not against a max contract, but it has to be for the right player, if they will come. That is a real question since at least for a few years, this is still a big market league where salaries are still easier to come by than rings.
Otherwise, GEOFF should do as you suggest: reach the minimum by taking on short, possibly “bad” contracts from teams for future picks or rights to overseas players. R. Lewis, if not amnestied, is a good player and good teammate on a bad contract. Gilbert A? Too many years on his contract, and may not help in the locker room. Be choosy.
I still think you target only players who you really, really want, otherwise just lay low.
I certainly hope that is always the case.
And time to sell isn’t how you get someone like Nene. All time does is give him more options. I know I’ll be repeating myself some but remember the last lockout with Vlade. Rumor was he was looking to live near LA and his wife really wanted to pursue her acting career down there. He didn’t end up a Clipper only because the Kings went big immediately and the Clips did not match. Heck, Vlade even sat on it for a day or two but the strike shortened free agency period created so much uncertaintly that he had to hurry and pick up the deal because nobody knew how quickly the money would bottom out on the market.
What I am trying to say is a situation where there is some chaos, uncertaintly, and speed involved can be a good thing for a small market franchise like the Kings. Either way though, certaintly target guys you want.
by wallywagon11 on Nov 27, 2011 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I was thinking the same thing this morning. I think the idea of a short and chaotic signing period will benefit the kings. I’d love to see them be aggressive early and really put the pressure on the market. Best case scenario we land a Gasol or Nene, worst case we force teams to make rushed decisions with their amnesty, trades, ect., that hopefully in hindsight bites them in the ass.
by Crocoduck on Nov 28, 2011 8:41 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Our best case is going for Gasol
With the tax rules not in effect until 2013, Chandler and Nene are most likely going to re-sign with their respective teams.
I know it has been said in many threads, but sign Gasol to a near max-deal offer sheet, put pressure on Memphis to re-sign him. With the 3-day window, they may pass on him. Worst case scenario, we force Memphis to overpay for him, and likely force them to trade him in 2 years.
"First we get jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the chicks."
by Wonderchild on Nov 28, 2011 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
I read something that sounded like Nene
was Veeeery unhappy with the extension offer he got from Denver last year.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on Nov 30, 2011 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
I think Stalbaum's major point is rather than spend money on players who only add marginal
value, the Kings would be better off waiting to make a move for a player who would take the team to the next level. Signing a David Lee type player to a near max contract is a luxury most teams will no longer be able to afford. Signing Nene to the same type of contract makes more sense to me. Remember the Mikki Moore signing? No mas!
Nice post Stalbaum, the only area where I would disagree is Sammy Dalembert is not going to sign another contract equal to or larger than the one that just expired. He’s not going to take the vet’s minimum to chase a ring but I expect that he will sign a contract just north of the mid level possibly something like $32 mil/ 4 years maximum. We will see.
Frances Amthor: I think you're a very stupid person. You look stupid, you're in a stupid business, and you're on a stupid case.
Philip Marlowe: I get it. I'm stupid Farewell My Lovely (1975)
And in this vein I get what I want how I want it because I am the customer. You might want to remember that you thieving scumbag mongrel bitches.
nate21h@evilcowtowninc.com
He'll want the full 5 year mid-level maxed out at minimum.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on Nov 28, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
He's 30 years old, not 33 or 34
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on Nov 28, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
What Bluejohn said
But we will see about Dalembert. I suspect that there will be huge center inflation this year, but that could be attenuated by players at Sammy’s level chasing rings.
What centers at Dalembart’s level do you suspect would take less money to chase rings?
by Crocoduck on Nov 28, 2011 8:44 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
By which I mean
At Dalembert’s level, I mean serviceable centers who are overpaid (maybe not as much as Sammy), or are likely to be overpaid over the next few years because the luxury tax does not kick in right away and serviceable centers are really hard to come by. Another way to think about this, centers who are likely mid-level exceptions or better, but not Tyson Chandler, or better. In other words, those likely to be terribly overpaid because there are so few quality “center pieces” in this emerging all-star point guard era. Any of them might decide to take a ring ride at a Miami in spite of their greater market value.
These are my guesses, because injuries and decline are hard to predict. But, this season: Sammy, Nenad Kristic, and Chuck Hayes (say what you will, he has a PER of 16, scores a little and rebounds a little more.) Next season, Nazr Mohammed (like it or not, PER 15), Mehmet Okur (if he returns to health.) Essentially, tomorrow’s Jermain O’neals, who have made some money and could land a truly bad contract relative to their on court value, but who might sign a mid-level or even vet’s minimum to go for a ring. Sammy is obviously the class of the lot.
I was gonna say I still want Emeka Okafor
But then I realized he is older than Tyson Chandler, and is owed 40 million over the next three years. I would take Tyson Chandler at 2 years 25 to 30 mil, before I took Okafor at 3 for 40.
Adoptive father of Caleb Hous.... hous... housyourdaddy?
I'm not too fussed about getting another big man.
SF on the other hand (if John Salmons is our best, c’mon).
There are quality unrestricted FAs at the SF position. Tayshaun Prince, Andrei Kirilenko, Al Thornton, Caron Butler (injury risk?).
This.
AK would be my off the cuff choice as far as vets
there are some good young ones that are RFAs.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
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