24Q: What Could Andrei Kirilenko Bring To The Kings?
by Tom Ziller on Dec 11, 2011 7:01 AM PST
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The Sacramento Kings are reportedly one of the teams chasing Andrei Kirilenko, a free agent who is playing for CSKA Moscow in his native Russia. The 30-year-old has spent his entire 10-year NBA career with the Utah Jazz, where he made the 2004 Western All-Stars and three All-Defense teams from 2004-06. He made $17.8 million last season and would be expected to be much cheaper this time around, though still not terribly cheap.
As has been noted in the discussion on this site, the Kings have an advantage if there are truly 15 teams interested in the forward, as the Kings still have plenty of salary cap space after locking up Marcus Thornton and Chuck Hayes. Assuming the $33 million figure for Thornton's four-year deal -- there's been some confusion, so we'll err on the high side -- the Kings would be expected to have about $13 million in cap space. (That also accounts for Jimmer Fredette's rookie contract and minimal salaries for second-round picks Tyler Honeycutt and Isaiah Thomas.) Most teams are over the cap and, without using a sign-and-trade with the Jazz, have just the $5 million mid-level exception at their disposal. Teams like the New Jersey Nets have more, but seem to have other priorities (like Nene or Dwight Howard).
It's unlikely that anyone can make a more lucrative offer than the Kings.
But should the Kings make a lucrative offer? What does Kirilenko bring?
The All-Star nod was eight seasons ago. AK's last All-Defense nod was in 2006, or six seasons ago. His block rate, once the best in the league (8.5 percent in 2005), is down to a fairly mundane 3 percent. (That would almost assuredly lead the Kings still; Samuel Dalembert came in at 4.3 percent last season, and no other King broke 2.6.) His rebounding is solid at small forward, but nothing terribly special. (It is much better than John Salmons, Donte Greene and Francisco Garcia, but that certainly speaks more to their deficiencies.)
But are we positioning Kirilenko as an upgrade on Salmons ... or an upgrade at power forward? The team just signed Hayes, and Paul Westphal has slotted him as the starting power forward. I hardly think Chuckwagon was a contingency plan against a failed Kirilenko chase. The Kings wanted Hayes. Sacramento also likes J.J. Hickson enough to have traded for him, and Geoff Petrie seems more attached to Jason Thompson than he had been Spencer Hawes or Kevin Martin. Power forward, in terms of non-star depth, is not a need. Small forward is.
It's hard to argue that the team has much faith in Donte Greene -- Omri Casspi competed with him for a job for two years, the team brought Salmons back to take, Westphal even tried Thompson and Carl Landry at the position over Greene and, in the most damning indictment, Francisco Garcia started 34 games there last season. So while we as fans of The Show see Greene as second on the depth chart at small forward, the team more likely sees him as roster fluff. That's unbearably sad, but it seems to be the case.
I hardly think the Kings are deluded themselves on Salmons: Westphal has emphasized that he's a veteran, not some great talent. Westphal wants vets, and Petrie is giving him vets. That's what Salmons is: a player who can be consistent and who has been to the rodeo a few times. Salmons is the equivalent of an innings-eater in baseball: he's not going to wow anyone, but sometimes he's a lot better than the alternative. I'm pretty convinced that team understands his limitations.
For those reasons, I think Kirilenko would be brought in as a small forward, even though he has historically had more success as a power forward.
His defensive success as a small forward is nothing to blink at, though. Last season, per 82games.com, he played 40 percent of Utah's SF minutes. In those, he held opposing SFs to a 46 percent effective field goal percentage (well below average) and a 12.2 PER (well below average). The numbers weren't as strong in 2010, but he still outperformed his opponents at small forward. His small forward defense in 2009 was nasty, holding match-ups to 42 percent shooting and an 11.4 PER. In 2008, the numbers weren't as strong, but AK outperformed his opponents at small forward and the team had a huge +7.9 rating differential when he was at the position.
In each of the past four seasons, Kirilenko has beaten his match-ups at the small forward spot.
Salmons played only 8 percent of the Bucks' small forward minutes last season, but did win his match-up by a good margin. (He lost his two-guard match-up handily.) He played 13 percent of the Bulls' SF minutes in 2010, and lost his match-up despite good apparent defense. (He broke even at two-guard. In limited time with the Bucks that season, he was excellent and won match-ups at both positions.) In 2009, he played 22 percent of the Bulls' SF minutes and broke even. That season he played 30 percent of the Kings' SF minutes and came out just ahead. In 2008, he played 22 percent of the Kings' minutes at SF and was outperformed.
In the past four seasons, Salmons has come out ahead as frequently as he has been beaten.
Clearly, based on match-up data, Kirilenko is the better bet at small forward.
That match-up data takes offense into account, obviously, but it's worth noting to two players' differences. Salmons is historically the better three-point shooter, and the two are about even on long two-pointers. The single most critical and noticeable difference on offense, though: Salmons' percentage of makes assisted is typically down around 40 percent, whereas AK is consistently above 70 percent. Most of Kirilenko's shots come within the flow of an offense, while Salmons creates his own.
If we need shot creators, that'd be good. But we don't. We have two starting guards in Thornton and Tyreke Evans who can create shots for themselves and others, and we have a center in DeMarcus Cousins who can do the same (though the quality of shots he creates tends to be poor at his young age). This is where the backlash over Salmons' ball-pounding enters the fray: Kirilenko doesn't do it, and it's likely better for the sake of our guards that he doesn't do it.
To me, Kirilenko seems like a real upgrade at small forward, and I wouldn't blink if the Kings offered him four years, $35 million (roughly what remains on Salmons' contract). For perspective's sake, the mid-level exception is worth $21.3 million over four years.
With Kirilenko as a starting small forward and Hayes at power forward, this could turn into a pretty decent defensive club almost immediately. A lot would depend on how Evans and Cousins develop at that end, but the potential for a good defensive team would be there.
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Theoretically we have plenty of guys that can score.
Which is why I think this would be a good move. I’ve heard AK was disappointed as his role dwindled when they added Boozer and Williams, but the last couple of years he seemed to be more open to being a role player. I wouldn’t expect to see him shoot very often on this team.
I’m still very curious about what type of role westphal will expect certain guys to play, and how they will accept it. It should be a good test for him. If AK was signed, and no other moves were made, I’d bet money that we will hear that some guys are not happy.
by Crocoduck on Dec 11, 2011 8:13 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Great post
FWIW, Wages of Wins has AK47 as the second most valuable wing free agent this year. (Note: Hayes was the 2nd most valuable PF free agent, too). AK produced 6.8 wins while Salmons produced 4.7. I’m not hugely familiar with this metric, but found it interesting.
They have AK “worth” over $10 million for his production last year. Given an expected slight decline over the next few years, I’d offer something along the lines of 3 years, $20-25 million. If he really wanted the 4th year, I’d maybe go up to $30 million or so (note he’s said he only sees himself playing 3-4 more years anyway).
I doubt his agent would let him take less than Thornton.
How much would his compatriot Prohkorov offer? He has deep pockets, a bigger market, and an old teammate who happens to be the best point guard in the league.
I’m guessing 40 for 4 years is where the bar is set.
"DeMarcus pounds, like the hammer. Tyreke slashes, like the sickle.
For the good of the proletariat!" - tomroadrunner
But
NJ can’t offer that kind of coin to AK and land Nene or Howard, so pursuing Kirilenko would mean that they would be shelving those pursutis, at least for now.
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I think he would fit in well
He’s got long arms and I’ve seen him frustrate Kobe at times. He also can run the offense because he can pass and control the ball.
So would Salmons come off the bench or would they get rid of him?
by boredwiththeUSA on Dec 11, 2011 8:20 AM PST reply actions
I know that Salmons would be behind AK
but would the team even keep Salmons or get rid of him somehow. I’d prefer to keep him as he is better than our other sfs
by boredwiththeUSA on Dec 11, 2011 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
You keep him
And if it doesn’t work out, amnesty him the next year to free up space.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
IF get signed and starts at SF
I’m willing to bet PW starts John at 2. Westie loves da vets!
"DeMarcus pounds, like the hammer. Tyreke slashes, like the sickle.
For the good of the proletariat!" - tomroadrunner
If the remaining roster addition we have is just AK47 or Odom (possible S&T for Dally)...
I would call that a pretty good offseason for the team.
Go Kings!
A to the motherf'n K!!!!
I’m a fan of this move. Hope it happens!
The glass is usually twice as big as it needs to be.
by BaldMatt on Dec 11, 2011 8:27 AM PST via mobile reply actions
The idea
of two non-ball dominant, defensive minded players (Hayes and Kirilenko) on the floor with our youngsters is very appealing. Tyreke, DeMarcus and Marcus get their shots, and maybe they learn a little something about defensive basketball and team play along the way. OK, I’m in.
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by section214 on Dec 11, 2011 8:34 AM PST reply actions 10 recs
They can also score & pass when needed
So it’s not like the other teams defenders can just leave them. I love it. Make it happen GP!
by Allbenji on Dec 11, 2011 9:08 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
This
Hayes and Kirilenko will keep our offense well greased. If there was any flaw to Dalembert, it was that the ball stuck to his hands whenever he got it. Stalled offense often.
That's if he didn't drop it first.
"We're like Tim Duncan and David Robinson. But a younger version. I really feel that." - Charlie Villanueva about himself and Chris Bosh.
very true -
and that would allow Salmons to be the go-to scorer on the 2nd unit (along with maybe Jimmer) with athletic hustle guys JJ, JT and Cisco playing the other spots. But they have to clear out at least 1 or 2 bodies, no? Donte?
Under this setup (and 100% health),
Greene and Thomas are probably waving towels while Whiteside and Honeycutt wear suits. If the Kings land a veteran backup point guard, then Thomas is wearing a suit, too.
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When will we know??
How long does he have to accept an offier?
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Dec 11, 2011 8:36 AM PST reply actions
Great points Tom
I’m in. I really like how he would fit in on offense as opposed to Salmons. This to me is big.
I would love to add AK
Salmons is just a bad fit. I like the guy. I was actually disappointed when we traded him but things were different then. We have to build around Tyreke, Demarcus, & Marcus. Great role players like Hayes & AK are perfect. A shoot first non-passer like Salmons just does’t work. I’m still confused by the move months later. Salmons off the bench is fine but I would have rather had Beno as a solid piece until Jimmer is ready.
by Allbenji on Dec 11, 2011 9:04 AM PST via mobile reply actions
We can argue starting line ups and matchups but we can't argue talent. Kirilenko makes the Kings a more talented team
The biggest concerns about AK-47 can be well documented; it’s concerns about his durability first, his Lamar Odom-esque game to game involvement second ( having Odom and Kirilenko on the same team would be so Ying Yang in so many ways). With his style of play and injury history, $10M/season for 4 years is a significant risk even at his age. Signing him means keeping JJ Hickson past this year is doubtful – who knows if that is a good or bad thing?
Lastly, doesn’t Prokhorov own CKSA Moscow?
Durability
I think that is why Salmons is still important, at least for this season. Both he and Kirilenko will probably need some nights off along the way (heck, all of these guys will probably need a night off here and there this season).
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Mental and physical durability for AK
And I meant Yin Yang. You still have to find minutes for Donte, as Ziller points out his is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Honeycutt is Reno bound no matter what.
We talk about the glut at the 4 spot, but Reke, MT, Garcia and Salmons all play SG as well.
by betweentheeyes on Dec 11, 2011 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
Why do we need to find minutes for Donte?
I think his time has past. At this point he is probably bench filler at best, waived at worst.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Dec 11, 2011 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
I love this piece and concur with your assessment.
I don’t see this as an either or situation between Salmons and AK though which I expect some on STR seem to have fixated. Matchups and who has the stroke will determine minutes between these two when Salmons is not spotting time at the 2.
Salmons statistically is a small upgrade (albeit unsexy) over what our options were last year. AK is an improvement over Salmons on most statistical factors including passing, eFG%, ball handling, turnovers, clutch stats etc., when you compare them head to head. It is true that there is some durability and consistency issues with AK that keep him from being a perennial elite player which makes time for Salmons when he is not on his game on any given night.
I maybe one of the few that really liked Salmons round one because when we had little options in the clutch he was willing to throw the team on his back and in spurts was the only very productive player on the floor offensively. His time in Chicago and in Milwaukee to me were similar in that in stretches he can be very effective scorer. It is true that his effectiveness was more prevalent when he was dribbling versus being a scoring option via off ball movement but I do think part of that is the result of poor offensive set play calling and lack of movement by other players.
If our team can move off ball better, and follow Hayes’ lead setting screens then Salmons efficiency could improve and he becomes a stronger back-up option for AK than anyone else on our team.
Unless Gerald Wallace or Hedo are available or affordable, or Christie were to get suddenly 10 years younger, I think AK and Salmons with the rest of the roster providing depth gives us solid coverage at the 3.
Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt — When catapults are outlawed, only outlaws will have catapults"
by SactownheartOChouse on Dec 11, 2011 9:32 AM PST reply actions
AK47
Wouldn’t make more sense to do a sign and trade with Utah for 5 years and 40 mil. Maybe even front load the contract with a sign bonus. Less cap hit later and we hit the minimum this year to preserve space next?
already at the minimum, or very close
and no thanks to a 5 year deal for a 30 year old. I’d prefer a 3 year deal, but would do a 4 if that’s what it took.
by Kfan in Korea on Dec 11, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
I've been asking for AK47 to fill in our sad SF spot for years
And, despite him declining a bit lately, I still would love the move..But, I’d like to see the move followed by the cutting of Garcia or Salmons. And I know that won’t happen.
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Dec 11, 2011 9:44 AM PST reply actions
Why?
Why cut them now? This is going to be a grueling season. You are going to have a lot of hurt bodies and tired legs. Having players who know the Kings system and can spell the starters w/o having too big of a drop off will be key. I don’t see us waving anyone this season unless it’s maybe Donte, and even then probably not.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Dec 11, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
And cutting them does not save us a penny,
and we don’t need the cap space.
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Waiving them with the amnesty provision would save money when another team picked them up
I’d guess other teams would be willing to pick up at least half of Salmons’ salary – probably less than that with Garcia.
I agree with the main point, though. Amnestying one of those two would make a lot more sense after this season.
Should be noted when comparing D for AK and Salmons
That last few years Ronnie Brewer generally guarded the best SG/SF for the Jazz, while Salmons guarded the best SG/SF for the Kings and Bucks. On the Bulls, Deng took on more tough assignments.
Obviously makes a difference when looking at opponents FG% and PER.
Ronnie Brewer must have a lot of range
guarding Jazz opponents while playing for the Bulls last year ;)
See, this is why you run this place Tom,
it’s all in the research. Rec’d.
"Cousins is the Blaster to Evans’ Master, the Hammer to Evans’ Sickle"- HP
Great post
I’m not one for statistical analysis, but it confirms basically what I’ve been seeing with Kirilenko
Wait a minute...
Who is the wiseguy who photoshopped Tina Turner onto Andrei Kirilenko’s body in the story pic??
I’m onto you buddy.
"If the 49ers success offends you, so be it." Jim Harbaugh
"If the 49ers success offends you, so be it." Jim Harbaugh
by Mityt on Dec 11, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If we sign him, can we force him to remove that stupid tattoo?
by HeuristicLineup on Dec 11, 2011 12:41 PM PST reply actions
Another positive
Adding Kirilenko and his ability to play either small forward or power forward would give Westphal more flexibility. He could run out an all-defense lineup with Hayes, Kirilenko, Garcia, Salmons, and Evans. He could throw out a better offensive lineup with Cousins, Hickson, Kirilenko, Thornton, and Evans. He could play small and fast with Hickson, Kirilenko, Evans, Thornton, and Jimmer, or he could play big and strong with Thompson, Cousins, Kirilenko, Salmons, and Evans.
There are tons of possibilities, and Kirilenko is an idea fit for a team full of guys who need the ball in their hands to make things happen like Sacramento. I love it. Get it done, Petrie!
Editor of JaguarsBlog
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Possibilities...
If a Kirilenko deal goes through I could see a line-up/depth chart like this:
PG Evans/Fredette/Thomas
SG Salmons/Thornton/Garcia
SF Kirilenko/Salmons/Honeycutt
PF Hickson/Hayes/JT
C Cousins/JT/Hayes
I would put Thornton in the second unit because it will give him more looks at displaying his offensive ability rather than having him try to split it with Tyreke and Cousins in the beginning. Thornton would most likely play the crucial minutes at the end of the 4th quarter as our (Super) 6th Man. I also put Hickson in front of his because the Kings did have problems in the beginning of the season getting their offense of to a quick start and this would make up for Thornton coming off the bench. I also like the tall starting line-up.
Carmichael Dave
is now tweeting up a storm about how we should get Arenas. No one claimed him off waivers? CD is also projecting AK as part of our rotation…hmmmm
by Scott Section 213 on Dec 11, 2011 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
Getting Chuck and Andre would be a solid offseason
Not going to cause world peace but good bang for the buck
by southern oregon on Dec 11, 2011 4:49 PM PST reply actions
Pseudo thread jack
The Dubs offered DeAndre Jordan 4 years and $43m today. Now it’s up to the Clips to match. The interesting part of this is that the Dubs had to take amnesty on Charlie Bell’s $4.1m deal and rescind their QO to Reggie Williams to make this offer. This means that they cannot take amnesty on Biedrins and his 3 year, $27m contract. It will be a helluva note for the Dubs if the Clips match on Jordan, and I think it’s an overpay if they don’t.
4/$21m for Hayes is looking better and better.
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I think Jordan's going to be a big old fat bust
Glad someone else is taking the chance with him.
"If you can’t make a profit, you should sell your team." - Michael Jordan (Owner, Charlotte Bobcats)
Bust in what sense?
I think he’ll be a top 5 defensive center and the 2nd best alley-oop / run the floor dunking center after Dwight.
That’s pretty much all the expect from him, plus 10 rebounds.
" 1 + 1 = 3 " - David Kahn
I disagree
I think away from Griffin, he’s going to be a journeyman center at best. Not the worst of things in the world, but not worth giving a big contract to.
"If you can’t make a profit, you should sell your team." - Michael Jordan (Owner, Charlotte Bobcats)
The Hayes signing looks great.
Also to note, we are a deep team now. This bodes so well for the tough season ahead.
"We're like Tim Duncan and David Robinson. But a younger version. I really feel that." - Charlie Villanueva about himself and Chris Bosh.
Golden State is being very impatient here
It’s likely the Clippers match, and when they do, the Warriors will now have wasted their amnesty on a $4 million expiring contract, instead of saving it for later when it could have been used on Biedrins, or even Lee or Ellis big contracts if they came down with huge injuries or something. Even if the Clippers don’t match, you’ve got a relatively unproven big man locked up for $10 million + a year for 4 years..
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
Are teams able to use the Amnesty option on an injured player?
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
The evaluation of hair mousse in the European athlete, a pictorial
by betweentheeyes on Dec 11, 2011 7:10 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I fail to see
Where this is an objective evaluation, considering there’s only 1 test subject….
...Watching DeMarcus Cousins’ transformation from large human to immortal kill beast...
Was just a tiny bit hesitant at first
because we have so many players who would warrant minutes in this roster, but aside from the fact that AK is an upgrade at the 3, and does so many things well, there are a couple more reasons I like the option of signing him.
You can never have enough depth, especially in this shortened season. Not only does he bring veteran know-how, but he’s still a good defender and with all the additions and potential with some of the young guys, defense will be a priority for this team. That’s a good direction to have.
In terms of his contract and how he’ll fit in the bigger picture for years to come: I think adding him also gives us more options moving forward. The team will now have a good combination of veterans and young players with potential that may be put in a package to obtain a much bigger player down the road. Whether that happens at the trade deadline or next year’s offseason, there might still be one big move for this team that could get us to the next level. With AK47 here, it becomes easier to part with certain pieces and still keep a good team.
It’s been quiet on that front but I’d be great to get him.
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
I agree with having more talent to package later, for more upgrades
But really, If we don’t add anyone else and assuming DMC is our starting Center, I don’t see where we actually have starter talent at either of the Forward positions. Especially, at the SF, where we use 2’s to shot corner 3’s except for Donte.
Hayes is 20 of 78 or 25% from the field on shots outside of 9 ft over the last FIVE YEARS. In the last 3 years, JJ is 151 or 501 or 30% from outside 9ft. JT is 267 of 726 or 36.8% outside of 9ft. And, we have no idea how Hassan will shot. So, if JT is our backup center than we have no one who needs to be defended outside 9 ft at the PF spot. If Chuck is our backup center, then JT is our best shooting PF and I don’t believe many people see JT as starter PF material.
So, from my point of view or our 5 bigs and 3 SF’s (Salmons, Garcia, Donte) we have only one legitimate starter in the frontcourt. Of the guards, I consider Salmons and Tyreke legit starters, and the 3 rookies are still unknowns. So, with only 3 NBA caliber starters on the team, any legitimate starter we can add is a big plus in my eyes. Thornton may be a starting 2 on some teams, but if we had a starting SF & PG, he’d be third in the rotation behind Reke and John because of his defense.
I think the Kings missed the boat in not signing someone like West, Afflalo, Chambers, and possibly working out a sign and trade with Dalembert. And, if AK47 doesn’t sign, I think this FA season is another black mark on GP’s record.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Maybe she can play the point
http://www.maria-kirilenko.net/gallery03/243.jpg
Maria Kirilenko is not related to Andrei but you never know.
getting worried
Really starting to think the Kings have no interest at all in bring in any more FA that are worth talking about. Got Petrie stating we are only 1million away from salary cap floor. Him and PW stating they are happy with the way the team is built. Now we are talking to Reggie Williams. Wow, obviously we are just trying to fill that 1million dollar gap. Looks like Peaches didn’t know what he was talking about. Not that we really need to sign anyone. But it would be nice to see the Franshise live up to their word. OH WELL, SAME OL KINGS!! “We are going to spend money on a top FA” Then bring in a no body worth talking about!! Like Chuck and MT but really, this is the best we could do in the FA market. Now this big FA signing sounds like bunch of crap!!!
ksh
PHUD!
Kirilenko...where art thou?
Any new developments on AK47?
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