Golden State Scouting Report

by HighTops on Apr 9, 2011 2:58 PM PDT

It seems like every series between the Kings and the Warrior has come down to the wire. In the 2008-2009 season, the teams split the season 2-2 with each team winning both games on the other teams' home court. And, each won one game in overtime, GS won 143-141 in overtime and the Kings won 135-133 in triple overtime. Last season, they each won both of their home games. This season the Warriors won the first meeting in Arco 117-109 in overtime and won the first game in Oracle Arena 119-112 also in overtime. Back home on the March 14th the Kings put an end to the Warriors 2 game winning streak by defeating the Warriors 129-119. So, if the Kings are to remain tied with the Warriors over the last 3 seasons they'll need to win in Oracle Arena one more time.

Golden States only trade at the deadline was to acquire Troy Murphy from New Jersey and then promptly waive him 3 days later. They did sign Al Thornton in early March after he was waived by Washington. So, the main change from earlier in the season is the Kings acquisition of Marcus Thornton. Also, the Warriors Center Andris Biedrins has missed ninth straight games because of a sprained left ankle, and it's unknown whether he'll return before the end of the season.

In our lone win Marcus Thornton, in his 10th game with the Kings, scored a career-high 42 points and Samuel Dalembert finished with a career high 27 points and a game-high 16 rebounds. After falling behind 3-0 the Kings answered with 19 straight points for a 19-3 lead. The Kings finished the opening quarter leading 35-20. The Kings pushed the lead 25 points 3:15 into the second quarter, but Golden State cut the Kings lead back to 12 , 71-59, by the end of the quarter. The lead was still 14 with 6:33 left in the 3rd when the Kings started to pull away and finished the quarter on a 14-4 run and started the fourth up by 23, 107-84. Golden States head Coach Keith Smart pulled his starter to start the fourth and went with his reserves for the rest of the game. The lead was still 24 points with 5:18 remaining in the game, when the Warriors went on a 15-0 run to close to within nine with 2:14 remaining. The Kings were able outscore the Warriors 6-5 over the remainder of the game to pull out the 129-119 victory.

All the Kings starters scored in double figures along with Luther Head who had 10 pt/ 5 asts/ 4 rebs off the bench. The Kings out rebounded the Warriors 46 to 24 and 11 to 4 on the offensive glass. But the Kings gave some of those extra possessions back by turning over the ball 19 times to GS's 13 turnovers. Golden States big 3 of Lee, Curry and Ellis played more than 12 minutes below their usual mpg, so it's difficult to determine Marcus' impact in the outcome of this game. We did dominate the boards and we outscored the Warriors 66-38 in the paint, and with Biedrins out that shouldn't change.

The Warriors are out of the playoffs and can only move up in the standings which hurts their odds in the lottery, so basically their playing for pride, and they're playing very well. They're on a 3 game winning streak with wins against Dallas, Portland and the Lakers

The starting lineup for the Warriors should be Dorell Wright and David Lee at the forwards, Ekpe Udoh at Center, and Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis in the backcourt. David Lee, Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright and Stephen Curry have carried the Warriors during the three-game winning streak. Each has played at least 40 mpg over that stretch except Curry who had to sit out a quarter in foul trouble and Wright who got some rest in the blow out win over the Trailblazers. Lou Amundson is seeing almost starter minutes in relief of Udoh and has averaged 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds over the last three games off the bench. And he's made more free throws than any other Warrior in the last two games.

David Lee is averaging 22.0 points and 12.1 rebounds over the last eight games. Dorell Wright is averaging 15 pts/ 5.5 rebs on 40% from the field and 29% from three in the last 10 games which is far below his seasonal average of 38% from three. Ekpe Udoh the athletic 6-10 rookie out of Baylor hasn't taken advantage of his new starters minutes, and is only averaging 6.5 pts/ 4.5 rebs on 45% field since taking over for Biedrins. But the Warriors are all about Ellis and Curry, and their doing fine. Monta is averaging 23 pts/ 6.6 asts/ and 3.6 rebs while shooting 45% from the field and 44% from three point range in 40+ mpg which is slightly better than his seasonal average. Stephen is averaging 17 pts/ 5.7 asts/ 5 rebs on 40% field and 45.7% from beyond the arc, and let's not forget his 90+% from the FT line.

Down the stretch, Coach Smart has cut his rotation down to 9 in close games, with Reggie Williams, Al Thornton and Vladimir Radmanovic joining Lou Amundson off the bench. But, with 4 of the starters playing almost 40 mpg, everyone but Lou is being limited to 15 mpg unless someone gets into foul trouble.

Both teams are seeing good improvement as the season winds down. The last three season series have had 1/3 of the games go into overtime, and both teams have won as many home games as away games; assuming that the Kings can pull out a victory Sunday in Oracle Arena. So, right now I'd guess that there is no sure fire favorite to win this game. The Kings should control the paint, and GS will probably outscore us on the outside jumpers. The Kings bench should be the favorite over the Warriors bench, but the GS starters play so many minutes that it's hard to say how much impact the bench will have in this game. So, in the end it probably comes down to Tyreke and Marcus' defense on Ellis and Curry. On KHTK the other night, Truck Robinson mentioned that the coaches are concerned about the offense with Tyreke and Marcus together because one stands around while the other has the ball. But, I've got to believe that defensively they are our best backcourt. So, in the battle of the best, can the Kings defend the Warriors? We'll find out soon. Get back on defense and go Kings.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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I'm not sure that we can play much "defense".

But we have to play defense in the waning moments of the game, if the game is close.
Rec’d as always.

"Keep a positive outlook, even when things are looking bleak. Remember, nothing is impossible."

by DaT3rmin8r on Apr 9, 2011 7:09 PM PDT reply actions

On paper

The Warriors should win – better record, superior talent, bigger payrool, home court advantage – but the Warriors are faucets – they run hot or cold. They can outscore any team and win, or not, and lose.

The Dubs are still Don Nelson’s team and not much else.With this “new” Kings team, I see a win.

by betweentheeyes on Apr 9, 2011 9:29 PM PDT reply actions

This sounds familiar. When have I heard this before...

On KHTK the other night, Truck Robinson mentioned that the coaches are concerned about the offense with Tyreke and Marcus together because one stands around while the other has the ball.

Reminds me of Tyreke and K-Mart. Wish the coach would add Beno into the starting mix. Unleash the Yeti.

by Slam_Dunk on Apr 10, 2011 9:22 AM PDT reply actions

Respectfully disagree with Udrih as a starter

It’s more important that Evans and Thornton log big minutes together and learn each other’s game. If the future of this team has Beno Udrih in the starting lineup, it’s not much of a future.

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by section214 on Apr 10, 2011 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

The Kings would not have Marcus Thornton if not for the Kevin Martin trade, however

in retrospect, knowing even more of the Maloof’s intentions and financial situation which was less evident, but evident, last season – do you believe that the KMart trade was more directly a $30M savings directed trade than a team chemistry one? I think so.

Just wondering – it makes no difference at this point, but this is a place for opinions…

by betweentheeyes on Apr 10, 2011 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I know that you didn't ask me, but here's my opinion anyways

Tyreke for the biggest rookies since they took over. And, I think that the main reason was because they wanted to put the ball in Tyreke’s hands and escalate his development. The desirable side affect of improving the inside scoring and saving money was secondary. And, one of the reasons that I believe this is that they’re giving the ball to DeMarcus alot in spite of his issues with turning over the ball.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy

by HighTops on Apr 10, 2011 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it was primarily a salary dump,

though Martin’s unhappiness probably played a role. 80% salary dump, 20% mitigating factors?

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by section214 on Apr 10, 2011 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree that Thornton and Evans should log big minutes togather but why not start Beno, Thornton and Evans? I mean, those 3 end of being on the floor togather anyways at the end of halfs. I love Cisco but his 3 point shooting has been off target and Dontes defense has been better recently. After all, If the future of this team has Cisco in the starting lineup, its not much of a future.

Paul Westphal’s arguement would be if they started Beno,Marcus and Tyreke… who would come off the bench that can dribble? And my answer would be JERMAINE TAYLOR. Why not? He can dribble, he can score, he can pass, he can defend and he’s young. The season is nearly over I say we give some time to a possible future prospect.

by ridingthebench on Apr 10, 2011 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

Truck never explained his comment or what they were looking to change

But if you look at the FGA’s in the games before Tyreke came back, Thornton was getting between 19-22 per game. When clearance came for Evans to play 36+ minutes, Thornton dropped to the low teens. In the Houston game they each had 16, in the Spurs game Ty had 15 and Marcus had 11, but against Memphis Marcus had 23 and Tyreke had 19. So, I think they are working things out.

I have to go with Section on this one, but not totally. Beno is not starter material, but than Marcus, Tyreke, and Taylor aren’t great ball handlers yet either. Taylor is a more athletic Tyreke, and is better at slashing to the basket or back cut alley-ops, and moving without the ball. But as far as ball handlers go, I think Thornton is the best especially on the fast break, but maybe not good enough to run the offense.

The league aver. Assist to Turnover Ratio is 2.1, Beno is 2.6, Marcus is 1.8, Tyreke is 1.7 and Taylor is 0.8. The league aver. Turnover Rate is 13.7 ( higher is better),Taylor is 18.4, Tyreke is 14.8, Beno is 13.6, and Marcus is 9.1. The turnover rate compares you FGA’s to your turnovers, and Marcus’ numbers include his time with NOH. The Point being that everyone of the Kings guards except Beno has a worse A/T ratio than the AVERAGE guard in the league. And only Thornton and Tyreke have a better Turnover Rate than the AVERAGE guard in the league.

Looking at all guards in A/T ratio, the top 50 are all PG’s except 9. The majority of the SG’s start to show up around 48 and up. Beno is 19th,Thornton is 73rd on that list, Tyreke is 80th, and Taylor is around 155. There are only 9 PG’s between 50 and 100. So, in A/T ratio, 82% of the top 50 are PG’s and only Beno falls in that range. Of the next 50, 82% are SG’s and that’s where Tyreke and Marcus fall.

So, does one or two stat’s determine your proper position, of course not. But with all stats, it may point out a potential problem. And, the problem as I see it, is that Thornton, Taylor and Evans are more scorers than playmakers, and their ball handling is weak enough that they turn the ball over more than even an AVERAGE PG, not just a starting pg.

PG by all accounts is one of the two hardest positions to master, along with Center. And, both Tyreke and Marcus are only in their 2nd year, so it’s understandable that they aren’t starting PG material yet. And, Marcus didn’t get much PG time, playing behind CP3 or Collison, which makes it even more surprising how good he is. But, I think both have to improve their ball handling skill and playmaking skills over the summer. Plus if a good starting PG becomes available, I wouldn’t pass up the opportunity to pick them up.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy

by HighTops on Apr 10, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

So you're saying we should get Irving if available?

by chenp22 on Apr 11, 2011 3:22 AM PDT up reply actions

If Irving ends up being the BPA, I'd take him.

But, then I don’t believe we need a Derrick Rose either. That’s why I believe Thornton might be able to make the transition to PG. His ball handling is excellent on the fast break and he’s shown the ability to run the pick and roll. Just not great dribbling out of pressure and has one of the lowest Assist Rates of any guard in the NBA.

The big problem is that there are very few FA guards this year with high assist rates and low turnover rates. There are about a dozen or so non-FA that I wouldn’t mind having, but it’s anyone’s guess whether their team is willing to let them go. Or, what they would want in return.

I’ve kind of given up on Beno improving enough to fill the role. He has the low turnover rate and good TS%, but his assist rate is below average and he picks up the dribble at the first sign of pressure, and in spite of his time in the league, he is terrible at using screens. He doesn’t wait for the screener to get set, doesn’t cut sharply off the screen, and it mostly ends in a stop & pop and almost never in a pass to the screener rolling to the basket.

We need more motion without turnovers and that has to start with the Guards. When our bigs turn the ball over 10 times a game, it’s because they aren’t getting the ball where they can finish and are trying to do too much.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy

by HighTops on Apr 11, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Players are like fans: Experience helps.

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by pookeyguru on Apr 11, 2011 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions