FanPost

The Case for Rudy Gay

Andre Iguodala and Danny Granger seems to be a hot debate and monopolized the digital ink amongst most Kings fans on StR over the past few months. However, Rudy Gay's name is starting creep up a bit. The thing that all 3 of these names have in common are that all are considered elite level SF's on rather large contracts. Witthout pulling a ton of stats into this conversation I think the consensus would agree that Iggy is a great passer/playmaker and uber-atheltic, Granger is considered a strong 3 point threat/scorer but that Gay is kind of a hybrid between the two player.

It's interesting to look at Rudy Gay's stats last year:

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/rudy_gay/career_stats.html

They almost mirror those of Danny Granger:

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/danny_granger/

Here's Iggy's stats to compare as well:

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/andre_iguodala/

However, some incentives to Gay are that he's 3 years younger, more athletic and probably has time to continue to improve upon what he's already shown. 

I really want strong defense, ball-handling and strong perimeter shooting from my SF on the Kings.

Iggy provides the D and the ball-handling, but his lack of size is troublesome along with his inability to hit the 3 consistently. 

Granger's more of a Kevin Martin-eque star(with D) in the fact that's he's a tremendous scorer with near unlimited range. However, he's already 28 years old and smack dab in the middle of his prime as a basketball player. What you see is what you get, and that's pretty darn good. 

Enter Rudy Gay. He just signed an enormous Maxed out deal with the Grizz last summer and IMPROVED upon seasons past. He's got the Size and Range of Granger, and interestingly he's got the Defense to go with it. What's the best metric to rate defense? That's debateable. I really don't have the answer for that. However, I do think A good metric is that of Adjusted (+/-).

I found a nice site that helped me to evaluate some of these metrics and use them to compare these 3 players. Here's the link:

http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Best-Wing-Players-in-the-NBA-by-the-Numbers-BBD2766.htm

 

What I found interested was this portion below:

2-year Adjusted +/-: This is Basketballvalue.com's APM calculation.  As I mentioned above APM is so incredibly noisy that a single year (or less) doesn't give conclusive answers (and too often the answers are nonsensical for my tastes).  Even 2 years may be too short for an APM calculation.  I like longer APM calculations, 4 years or more, to really clean up the noise and give a robust effect.  Nevertheless, we're talking about this year so we'll have to make due on both issues with the 2-year compromise.


2 yr APM 2 yr APM SE
LeBron James 15.05 2.71
Kevin Durant 12.38 3.9
Dwyane Wade 11.01 3.27
Luol Deng 7.6 3.62
Gerald Wallace 6.98 3.33
Landry Fields 6.87 4.33
Paul Pierce 4.91 3.44
Manu Ginobili 4.83 2.92
Vince Carter 4.8 3.27
Carmelo Anthony 4.63 3.11
Ray Allen 4.17 3.54
Danny Granger 3.34 3.02
Kobe Bryant 2.86 3.7
Ron Artest 2.83 3.26
Rudy Gay 2.77 3.72

 

Gay is about on par with Granger and Iggy isn't even mentioned in the top 15 wings for this particular metric.

 

The next best part of this find was this mentioned below:

Overall Rank orders: Giving each of our 27 guys a '1' through '27' ranking based on where they ranked in each stat, here is a summary of how each guy did.  I'll add an average across the 5 stats (with standard error) to give us a seat-of-the-pants-advanced-stat-cross-section-view ranking order:


PER WS48 WP48 Roland Rating 2 yr APM
Average Std. Error
LeBron James 1 1 1 1 1
1 0.00
Dwyane Wade 2 2 2 3 3
2.4 0.24
Kevin Durant 4 6 6 6 2
4.8 0.80
Manu Ginobili 6 4 5 2 8
5 1.00
Paul Pierce 9 3 7 4 7
6 1.10
Kobe Bryant 3 5 8 7 13
7.2 1.69
Ray Allen 15 8 9 11 11
10.8 1.20
Eric Gordon 8 9 13 8 16
10.8 1.59
Carmelo Anthony 7 17 12 9 10
11 1.70
Rudy Gay 11 14 11 5 15
11.2 1.74
Kevin Martin 5 7 14 12 26
12.8 3.68
Andre Iguodala 14 10 4 13 23
12.8 3.09
Landry Fields 25 18 3 14 6
13.2 3.99
Luol Deng 20 11 17 19 4
14.2 2.99
Joe Johnson 12 19 16 10 17
14.8 1.66
Danny Granger 13 15 23 15 12
15.6 1.94
Andrei Kirilenko 16 16 10 17 19
15.6 1.50
Gerald Wallace 21 21 15 18 5
16 2.97
Vince Carter 23 20 20 16 9
17.6 2.42
Jason Richardson 18 13 18 22 20
18.2 1.50
Richard Jefferson 26 12 19 21 21
19.8 2.27
Monta Ellis 10 22 21 20 27
20 2.77
Jason Terry 19 23 26 23 18
21.8 1.46
Ron Artest 27 24 25 26 14
23.2 2.35
Michael Beasley 17 26 27 25 24
23.8 1.77
Stephen Jackson 22 25 24 27 22
24 0.95
Tyreke Evans 24 27 22 24 25
24.4 0.81

Conclusions:

Every stat, no matter how it was measured, agreed that LeBron James has been the best wing in the NBA this year.  In fact, LeBron and Dwyane Wade measured out 1-2 overall among wings across the body of stats examined here.

Behind the Miami boys is a group of 4 guys on the next tier: Durant, Ginobili, Pierce and Kobe.  While Kobe and Durant are super-duper stars, it's interesting that Ginobili and Pierce measured right there with them this year.

Ray Allen is right behind Kobe, and highlights the next Tier that features eight guys (down to Luol Deng on the list).  This tier is an interesting mix of big names and guys that may be having a bigger impact than their names would suggest.  New Knick Carmelo Anthony is on this tier with Ray, along with several young scorers (Gay, Gordon, Martin) and a couple of more versatile glue/defensive type players (Iguodala, Deng and Fields).

I'm not going to spend much time with the rest, though it is interesting that guys like Joe Johnson and Monta Ellis are maybe further down the list than you might expect.  The take-away for me is that while Miami (obviously) is built around 2 super-wings, the Celtics (and I guess, now, the Knicks) are the only other teams with two wings from among the top 3 tiers.



So no matter how we compare the players, they're all about neck and neck with each other and Rudy compares favorably with both Granger and Iggy. He's kind of the best of both worlds between the Iggy crowd and the Granger crowd and he's younger than both, which will help as our team matures together.
Overall ranks had Gay at @11, Iggy @ #13 and Granger @ #17.
Now it's just a matter of who's available and at what cost. Iggy IS available, Granger apparently is NOT available(according to Indy fans and their ), and Gay MIGHT be available considering Memphis' financial situation. 
The addition of Gay would give the Kings two top 30 wings on their roster along with Tyreke. We have a future al-star in the making in the front-line in Cousins and we'd have a nice complement of role players in Daly(if re-signed), Thornton(will be re-signed), Beno, Garcia, Greene and Thompson.
So without further adieu I'd like to suggest we deal the #5 pick, Omri Casspi and our cap space to the Grizzlies for Rudy Carlton Gay Jr. doing so would enhance our roster and give us an athletic wing that can D it up, hit the 3 ball and throw down some ridiculously awesome dunks to re-ignite  PBP ARCO THUNDER once again!
Kings roster after the addition of Gay would be:
C: Samuel Dalembert, Hassan Whiteside PF: DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson, Darnell Jackson
SF: Rudy Gay, Francisco Garcia, Donte Greene SG: Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Jermaine Taylor PG: Beno Udrih, Charles Jenkins, Pooh Jeter
Overall salary commitments assuming Daly gets 10 million annually and Thornton gets 6 million annually for next season would be roughly 60-62 million dollars next season after filling out the roster with the Darnell Jackson's, Pooh Jeter's and Jermaine Taylors and adding a 2nd rounder like Charles Jenkins. 

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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