NBA Draft Lottery: But For The Grace Of Fools
by Tom Ziller on May 17, 2011 8:00 AM PDT
in NBA Draft
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PrintThe 2011 NBA Draft Lottery arrives at 5:30 p.m. Pacific on Tuesday. I'd like to think I understand the pulse of Sacramento Kings fans to some degree, and there's simply no question that the run-up to this lotto has been a bit more muted than previous ones. A huge, huge, elephant-on-the-futon part of that is the franchise's tenuous position; we just found out two weeks ago that we will have a team to watch live next season (barring a lockout). That's no small thing. Hard to get excited about a renovation if you might lose your house, nahmean?
So we have a team. We're still less than ebullient about this. Why? My working theory is that we've been beaten two straight years in this thing. Beaten hard. Never underestimate the psychological damage that 2009 disaster did; we suffered through a completely awful season (17 wins! that's Wolves bad!) and fell as far as we freaking could in the lottery. To fourth in a two-player draft. That's no small thing. A year later, another rough season? We fell two spots, to fifth in a four-player draft.
We're sick and tired of wolf tickets, man.
But here's the thing: 2009 wasn't a two-player draft. It was a ... five-, six-player draft? We ended up with the Rookie of the Year, and maybe the second-best player. (We'll see.) We fell hard on lottery night, but we survived. We thrived. Sure, Blake Griffin would have been just lovely. But Tyreke Evans is pretty freaking good. And we got him, because the Grizzlies didn't know what they were missing, and because the Thunder had their star guards.
2010 was indeed a four-player draft (with Greg Monroe looking like a worthy No. 5, frankly). But David Kahn owned one of those four picks. Which means it was a four-player draft in which one of the top four players was likely going to get to No. 5. And so he did. Kahn took Wes Johnson, we landed DeMarcus Cousins.
Is that fortuitous? Yup. Was it unlucky to fall to No. 5 in the first place? Yup. Was Memphis' Hasheem Thabeet pick in 2009 fortuitous? Hell yeah. Was it unlucky to fall to No. 4 in the first place? Yes. So remember that should the Kings hit No. 3 or No. 4 or No. 5 or No. 6 or even No. 7, this is just half of the story. This simply set the stakes for June. In the marathon that is the NBA Draft, this is the opening 10K. The race will be won in the long 20 miles to come. Bunker down, breathe easy and chillax.
(Standard playoff thread at 2. Lotto thread at 5. Reaction after. Prada and I are previewing every lottery team's stakes at the mothership.)
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I'm just not that excited
because there isn’t really any player in the draft for me to get attached to. There’s not even the guy everyone wants that GP doesn’t take because he doesn’t believe in hype. I’m not saying that the players won’t be good, because there is no way of telling for sure, and by all means they probably will be very good. I’m just not enamored by anyone. This year, what I am excited about is what kind of trades GP can pull off when he’s allowed to spend. (Fingers crossed he actually is allowed to spend!)
by prowseinthehouse on May 17, 2011 8:10 AM PDT reply actions
I think most are confident in 1 and 2 being good picks(Kyrie and Williams(
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sold on them either
I’m not going to fall in love with a player who has played in only a handful of games. He’s probably going to be fine. I’m just not excited for anyone is all, which is my guess why excitement for this draft hasn’t really been shown.
by prowseinthehouse on May 17, 2011 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I really don't believe there's a solid top 2, here
There’s a chance Kyrie could drop to #2, or #3 even if a bunch of question marks pop up during workouts. As far as Williams goes, I’ve seen all his highlight reels. They’re either him shooting the three or running straight at the rim for a dunk. I’ve been searching everywhere for a clip where he shows off some play making or a high amount of BBall IQ, but I haven’t found any…mostly just him waiting around under the basket, waiting for a nice pass so he can dunk it.
Players showing high BBall IQ make for a boring highlight reel.
You’ll need to watch actual games to see that. Which I have not, so I can’t comment on his BBall IQ
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Not to mention
waiting for a nice pass so he can dunk it
That sounds ilke a current player down in LA LOL
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I watched a few of his games
he seemed to be a smart player, grabbed some rebounds out of his area, but it did seem to me he had more of a stretch4 game. Though of course, he playing PF in those games so (?) But he was the best player on the floor in the games I watched – no doubt.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this is a big part of it
Ziller’s right that our expectations have been beaten down.
However, there’s also no Blake Griffin sitting at #1. Or a Wall/Turner/Favors/Cousins to pair with Reke if we land in the top 4 (Thank you again to Kahn btw, I really can’t stress this enough).
This year, not only do we have two potential stars, but even if we do get lucky and get the #1 pick, it just doesn’t feel as transformative for the franchise. Would still be extremely helpful and people will be excited if we do. But not quite the same feeling as the last two years.
If the Kings hit No. 4, the draft is rigged!!!!!
Yes. So remember that should the Kings hit No. 3 or No. 4 or No. 5 or No. 6 or even No. 7, this is just half of the story.
I will 100% quit watching Basketball
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 8:44 AM PDT reply actions
Yea I was thinking the same thing
No number 4 this year…I’m pretty sure
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
I'm confused
why is number 4 bad? That would be moving up a spot
by prowseinthehouse on May 17, 2011 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions
it's not bad, it's physically impossible according to how the process works
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree that the "lottery hope hype" is very different this year.
Probably the biggest reason is simply that we’ve had a hell of a lot more to focus on since the end of the season than we have in the past few seasons. But I also think that, as you discuss in this post, the results of the past two lotteries and drafts has sort of trained us, the diehards at least, that the lottery is something to be thrilled about if your team gets lucky, but not something that you should pin your hopes on. In other words, to approach it like an actual lottery (something that you have no control over). In past years, we were gamblers counting on a bailout, throwing bad money after good. This year, with two or three young players (depending on whether or not Thornton has you convinced in a relatively short time) that most of us feel pretty good about moving forward, I think that the desperation factor is pretty much removed. I do think most of us would be friggin jazzed to end up in the top 2 and add another exciting piece to our young core, but the overriding feeling is that we’re more excited about a potential trade right now than who the Kings might draft. Lucking out in the lottery this year would just be gravy.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on May 17, 2011 8:49 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Good points all around ASSN
Although it’d be great to have a higher pick to potentially package into a deal for a star.
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
It also helps
that there isn’t a John Wall or Blake Griffin to make us salivate over either.
More like “Yeah, Irving/Williams/Kanter MIGHT be alright.”
Author of the Pick and Scroll and NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
bastard!
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya, this is more what's killing the excitement for me than anything else
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Also
trading the pick doesn’t really do much either, since there isn’t much value in it this year, so there isn’t even that to hope for.
by prowseinthehouse on May 17, 2011 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the pick still will hold some substantial value if it ends up being 1,2,3, or 5
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
Do you think it would be enough to be worth trading?
What type of offers do you think teams would make to try and move up in this draft?
honest questions
by prowseinthehouse on May 17, 2011 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Little.
That’s why I’m concerned if the Kings are going to make a play for Iggy, it’s going to take this year’s pick, next year’s pick and Casspi.
I know fans don’t want to hear that, but it’s the truth.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Or probably the 2013 pick since you can't trade future 1st round picks in back to back years.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
you're not going to land a big name with anything less than that
You make that trade with the thought that it vaults you up the ladder and by 2013 the 1st is a mid to late round pick anyway.
I’m not sure I’m sold on Iggy, but I am willing to send out those chips in the right scenario.
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
Yep Kangs.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Point perfectly made^
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I hope petrie agrees with you
And I think he does. A draftnik like geoff with a rebuilding roster is not going to trade away next year’s one
by lchristmas on May 17, 2011 10:20 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
We could keep next year's though, which would be the best one to have due to everyone staying out of this year's draft.
You trade this year’s in a down draft, and the 2013 pick that is hopefully not in the lottery. I wasn’t planning on really arguing in favor of it, but now that I think about it I’d trade those two plus Casspi for Iggy. Maybe grab a good SF prospect in next year’s loaded draft as Iggy’s successor. This team isn’t going to get where it needs to be with youth only. You need to add a good vet at some point, it actually makes a lot of sense to try to use this year’s pick, the 2013 pick and Casspi to get that done now. Unless this year’s pick ends up in the top 2.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on May 17, 2011 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
good points
Next years draft should be very, very deep.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep ASSN.
The 2012 pick is probably more valuable than either this pick (wherever it lands) or the 2013 pick especially.
That’s another reason parting with the 2013 pick is not a big deal.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
FWIW
Some Sixer fans on realgm think the pick and Casspi for Iggy and #16 is fair. Of course it doesn’t matter what the fans think, but I think you might be undervaluing how important that salary drop would be for them
That team needs different pieces
they want to mae a play for Gasol or Nene, they need cap space to do that.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
wouldn't be terribly shocked if Al Jefferson or Bargaignidfdsihfsdfhsdf have been discussed
(of course, depending on what happens in the draft)
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Wizards draft pick too
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
They're starting to look pretty good in the back court
and wing positions, real question in the front court. Also, they just don’t have a Star or future Star at any position that I can see.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
ASSN
until you, dalt and nbrans make your picks I’m just wandering in the desert waiting for a clear vision of who the Kings should pick regardless of our lottery position. I’m going to be watching the lottery tonight with the assumption that the pick we get that is closest to the #1 is a good thing. Other than that, I have no face/game to put in with the potential pick.
"It ain't Chinese algebra" - Tony Allen from Basketbawful
I too am waiting for some of the college experts to do their thing
I hardly watched any college games outside of my Boilers.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course, once I've taken it all in -
I’ll disagree with the lot of them!
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
You must be confusing me with someone else, BJ.
dalt and nbrans are the experts, and many other contributors have very educated and insightful contributions. My thoughts are entirely for entertainment purposes only; completely gratuitous and should have no bearing on anyone’s draft hope process. I am the cleavage salt lick to dalt and nbrans’ potent shot of draft knowledge tequila.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on May 17, 2011 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not all that excited...
but thats because for the first time in a long time, I don’t think this team needs a home run in the draft to be competitive.
"The Kings have nothing to lose but their games."
One Western Conference general manager was more succinct in his analysis of this year’s pool of available players.
"It’s horrendous," he said. "Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it."
Perfectly summed up from Mr Spears. It really wasn’t that bad until Sullinger, Jones, Jones and Barnes pulled out. Then it became horrendous.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Did they all drop out because of the potential lockout?
That’s the way it looks on the surface to me
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
kind of off topic
but it is hilarious how all the GMs and scouts cover their ass every year by saying how bad the draft is and over time you start hearing less and less about that. Only this year, it never stopped. Same with the 2006 draft.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Last year was suppose to be one of the worst we've ever had at one point.
I think it turned out just fine
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah and the 2006 draft didn't have guys drop out all over the place.
It just didn’t have an incredible talent base to work off. Which is like most drafts. Most drafts aren’t awash with significant talent in fact.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I don't even think this is all that bad a draft quite frankly.
There’s going to be a LOT of solid NBA players. There are just zero IMPACT players. Quite frankly I don’t see a huge difference in talent between the potential #10 pick and the #40 pick. This draft will easily be better than 2000(probably the worst draft ever) and be closer to that of 2006 where you still had a couple really, really good players in Roy, Gay and Aldridge come out of it.
Rajon Rondo and Tyrus Thomas were in the 2006 draft too.
Andrea Bargnani as well.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Hoping for
Tre Dingchip
Perhaps no player in the 2011 draft has as much upside/potential as Tre Dingchip. This player could conceivably fit in with most rosters. Should be a solid pro for years to come, with his value perhaps highest with rebuilding teams. His value increases the higher the draft slot, so lottery teams are crossing their fingers for the #1 pick to get him. Likely won’t remain with the team that drafts him. Look for him to be moved by draft day for a veteran and/or later picks.
by IamPurple on May 17, 2011 9:06 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Bush is a big fool
Great post ziller but bush?my son fought in his war.any way we take a point guard,i hope it is no.1 pick iving.GO KINGS!!
by cowboyron96@yahoo.com on May 17, 2011 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 14 recs
amusement aside
I cringe every time I think that this country made that guy the most powerful man in the world.
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
We must have all been drunk
That’s how I explain most of my bad decisions.
Burklemaniac
by otis29 on May 17, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks to your son for his service
And congrats on your newfound celebrity status!
Burklemaniac
by otis29 on May 17, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Be Happy
How is your wife and my kids doing?have a nice day.GO KINGS!!
by cowboyron96@yahoo.com on May 17, 2011 9:33 AM PDT reply actions 8 recs
Lol!
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on May 17, 2011 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
The odds and how they play out are just whacked
So, what should happen is that the worst team should win the lottery more often than other better teams. Not so…
The worst team has only won 3 times, or 4 if you include a year there was a tie, and the 2nd place will win next (nope – have won 4 lotteries) and henceforth. But in the small sample of 16 lotteries it is the third and fifth worst team that win the lottery the most.
Between 3rd and 5th worst teams the lottery has been won 10 our of the 16 times, with 5 a piece and that is just damned odd… Given the probabilities of doing this hundreds of times it would likely balance out along the weighted percentages of balls, but in the short run I hope this bodes well!!!
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
By the time we've had about 500 of these or so, the odds should even out.
Isn’t that great Mustang? I mean, we’ll all long be dead and buried, but the draft lottery will be shown to be completely fair.
Burklemaniac
Yeah, the Kings only have to get screwed 499 more times. Wonderful...
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
technically
I think it’s a bit more than 500 times isn’t it?
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Most likely so
I was just kind of spit-balling David Stern’s tenure as NBA commisioner.
Burklemaniac
by otis29 on May 17, 2011 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
WOOO! We are 5th!!
The worst team has only won 3 times, or 4 if you include a year there was a tie, and the 2nd place will win next (nope – have won 4 lotteries) and henceforth. But in the small sample of 16 lotteries it is the third and fifth worst team that win the lottery the most.
by HeuristicLineup on May 17, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Amazing
I’m going to put a lid on this from this point moving forward in the thread. I don’t think that there was anything particularly political about Ziller’s post, but it appears that something as benign as this still leads to some wishing to enter into a political discussion. Not having it. Anything posted with a political bend to it after this will be deleted, and repeated political posts could lead to warnings and/or banishment. Additionally, I don’t wish to discuss this in the thread, so if you have a reponse to this, email me off line – do not respond in the thread.
Simply, take the political commentary to other sites. We don’t do well with it here. Thank you.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on May 17, 2011 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It's the same thing - haven't you heard? ;p
OK, shutting up now . . . . .
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
by lietothegirls on May 17, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you guys got it all wrong...
He is a cross between the Secret Service, non-political and willing to take a bullet for his boss, and the God Thor, cause he swings a mean hammer.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Wiggum: He won't bend your Wookie
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
by kangsfan on May 17, 2011 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
My bad about the comment from 11:52.
I just saw your post and I am finished. :)
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on May 17, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
We’re sick and tired of wolf tickets, man.
Still remember when I had no clue what this phrase meant back when I read it the first time.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
I don't understand it now.
And I read the link you gave. Amazing that the talk about Anaheim started back in 2005.
I know we're gonna lose but I still think we're gonna win.
It started before the Maloofs actually took controlling interest in the organization around 1998ish
Pretty sickening.
HERE WE STAY
THIS IS OUR TEAM
Guy I know used to work for the Maloofs
Said they wanted to move to Anaheim as soon as they became team owners. That he heard them talking about it back then.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Here's a fun pie chart for the festivities. From GSoM.
Live every week like it's Shark Week.
by wallywagon11 on May 17, 2011 2:03 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Market Sizes and My Prediction
For you conspiracy theorists, I thought I would take a look at the market sizes of each participating team.
Minnesota Timberwolves- 16th Media Market
Cleveland Cavaliers- 18th Media Market
Toronto Raptors- 6th Media Market
Washington Wizards- 12th Media Market
Sacramento Kings- 21st Media Market
Utah Jazz- 25th Media Market
Detroit Pistons- 14th Media Market
Charlotte Bobcats- 23rd Media Market
Milwaukee Bucks- 26th Media Market
Golden State Warriors- 9th Media Market
Phoenix Suns- 15th Media Market
Houston Rockets- 13th Media Market
The Raptors and the Warriors are the only two teams in the top 10 media market, which allows the conspiracy theorists to point out that the NBA has done a good job keeping the large market teams in relevance in order to make the most money. The Kings are the 9th best media market size in the lottery, but let’s take a look at the lottery winners of the past 10 years.
2010 Washington Wizards- 12th Media Market
2009 Los Angeles Clippers- 4th Media Market
2008 Chicago Bulls- 5th Media Market
2007 Portland Blazers- 22nd Media Market
2006 Toronto Raptors- 6th Media Market
2005 Milwaukee Bucks-26th Media Market
2004 Orlando Magic- 20th Media Market
2003 Cleveland Cavaliers- 18th Media Market
2002 Houston Rockets- 13th Media Market
2001 Washington Wizards- 12th Media Market
2000 New Jersey Nets- 2nd Media Market
This list contains large market teams as well as small market teams. The average Media Market for the past 10 years to win the #1 pick is 14, therefore my guess is that the Detroit Pistons win the 2011 NBA Lottery. But the truth is that none of this data matters, because as much as everyone wants to believe, the NBA is not out to get us and the lottery is randomized.
Tyreke Evans for MVP!
by sac-townz finest on May 17, 2011 3:12 PM PDT reply actions
On a side note, if the Kings do get the #1 pick
should KJ announce he’s running for Governor immediately afterward? Forget party affiliation or any political stances, this isn’t meant in that way. However, if he saves the Kings and gets us the #1 pick, he might just start his Presidential bid.
I think Anaheim's voters may out vote us at the ballot.
"I think this can be a good line-up for us and we’ll see how it works." - PW on replacing Casspi and Beno with JT and Head in the starting lineup (Nov. 18, 2010 Sac Bee)
I think they are too apathetic to care
though KJ might have to watch out for the 4 posters on Anaheim Royalty
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