2011 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS

Thanks everybody for your patience and (hopefully) interest in my system findings.

Sorry again for the delay. No matter how hard I try I can't seem to get the post finished each year before June 21st! Well, it's been an especially busy year for me, preparing for my first marriage in three months, and fixing up my house. I am just happy to have a home team to continue to root for!

My scoring system ranks players from 0-105. It’s based on a ton of factors, mostly statistical, and I have produced a system score for just about EVERY other player to come out of college since 1982. By comparing how the recent crop of college players match up to how past players fared in the NBA, the score is a guide to show the probable POTENTIAL of each player. Each season is different, with different schools being more or less talented than last year and different conferences being stronger or weaker than last year. I have to incorporate all of that into the scoring. It's a unique system that I don't think anyone else has incorporated in this way.

 

European players are also scored on how they performed statistically, but I am not able to incorporate the strength of schedule or team talent into the scoring in anywhere close to a comfortable level. Also many European players play sparingly, very few games or for several teams per season, so their scores have a much larger "margin of error". Enes Kanter for instance is a total mystery. He had a poor four game showing in the Euroleague (scored below 75) but was an absolute monster in nine games with Turkey, scoring an unbelievable 103 on my system. I mean, the dude averaged 26 points and 23 rebounds per 40 minutes for goodness sake! I ended up using the stats from his five game stint with Instanbul since it seemed more realistic. So yah, Euros can be a crapshoot.

 

PLEASE forgive any spelling or puncuation errors...

OK, here they are. My 2011 NBA draft player scores. After the scores will be my thoughts and findings on a few key players in this draft in regards to OUR Sacramento Kings!

 

Player-Class	School/Country	Pos.	Score
Kyrie Irving-F	Duke	PG	99
Derrick Williams-So	Arizona	PF	95.5
Jonas Valanciunas-E	Lithuania	C	95
Markieff Morris-J	Kansas	FC	94
Kemba Walker-J	Connecticut	G	92
Marcus Morris-J	Kansas	F	92
Alec Burks-So	Colorado	SG	91
Brandon Knight-F	Kentucky	PG	89.5
Bismack Biyombo-E	Spain	PF	89
Klay Thompson-J	Washington St.	GF	89
Enes Kanter-E	Turkey	PF	89
Darius Morris-So	Michigan	PG	88.5
Jimmer Fredette-Se	Brigham Young	PG	88
Jordan Hamilton-So	Texas	SF	88
Tobias Harris-F	Tennessee	F	88
Jereme Richmond-F	Illinois	SF	88
Iman Shumpert-J	Georgia Tech	SG	87.5
Laurence Bowers-J	Missouri	F	87.5
Isaiah Thomas-J	Washington	PG	87
Marshon Brooks-Se	Providence	SG	86.5
Jamine "Greedy" Peterson-J	D-League	F	86.5
Kawhi Leonard-So	San Diego State	F	85.5
Jan Vesely-E (J)	Czech Republic	F	85.5
Jordan Williams-So	Maryland	FC	85.5
Demetri McCamey-Se	Illinois	PG	85.5
Nikola Vucevic-J	USC	FC	85
Nikola Mirotic-E	Spain	PF	85
Josh Selby-F	Kansas	G	84.5
Tristan Thompson-F	Texas	FC	84
Tyler Honeycutt-So	UCLA	SF	84
Mickey McConnell-Se	Saint Mary's	PG	84
Rick Jackson-Se	Syracuse	FC	83.5
Nolan Smith-Se	Duke	PG	83
Cory Joseph-F	Texas	PG	83
Brad Wanamaker-Se	Pittsburgh	SG	83
Donatas Motiejunas-E	Italy	FC	82
Travis Leslie-J	Georgia	SG	82
Ben Hansbrough-Se	Notre Dame	PG	82
Bojan Bogdanovic-E	Bosnia	GF	81
Josh Slater-Se	Lipscomb	G	81
Kyle Singler-(Se)	Duke	SF	80.5
Diante Garrett-Se	Iowa State	PG	80.5
Kenneth Faried-Se	Morehead State	PF	80
Elias Harris-So	Gonzaga	F	80
Julyan Stone-Se	UTEP	GF	79.5
Trey Thompkins-(J)	Georgia	PF	78.5
Matthew Bryan-Amaning-Se	Washington	FC	78.5
LaRon Dendy-(Se)	Iowa State	PF	78.5
Jeffery Taylor-J	Vanderbilt	SF	78
Shelvin Mack-J	Butler	G	78
E'Twaun Moore-Se	Purdue	G	78
Andrew Goudelock-Se	Charleston	PG	78
Travis Franklin-Se	Colorado State	SF	78
Jon Leuer-Se	Wisconsin	PF	77.5
Justin Harper-Se	Richmond	F	77.5
Scotty Hopson-J	Tennessee	SG	77.5
Jacob Pullen-Se	Kansas State	PG	76.5
David Lighty-Se	Ohio State	G	76.5
Chandler Parsons-Se	Florida	F	76.5
Keith Benson-Se	Oakland	FC	75.5
Jon Diebler-Se	Ohio State	GF	75.5
Papa Dia-Se	SMU	PF	75
Charles Jenkins-J	Hofstra	G	74.5
Michael Dunigan-(J)	Oregon	C	74.5
Damian Saunders-(Se)	Duquesne	F	74
JaJuan Johnson-Se	Purdue	PF	73.5
Justin Holiday-Se	Washington	GF	73.5
Chris Singleton-J	Florida State	F	72.5
Greg Smith-So	Fresno State	FC	72.5
Tracy Smith-(Se)	NC State	PF	72.5
Talor Battle-(Se)	Penn State	PG	72.5
Denzel Bowles-Se	James Madison	FC	72
Malcolm Thomas-Se	San Diego State	PF	72
Luke Sikma-Se	Portland	FC	71.5
Tai Wesley-Se	Utah State	PF	71
La'Shard Anderson-Se	Boise State	PG	71
Jerai Grant-Se	Clemson	PF	70.5
Willie Reed-J	Saint Louis	FC	70
Malcolm Delaney-(Se)	Virginia Tech	PG	68.5
Chris Long-Se	Elon	PG	68.5
Ryan Rossiter-Se	Siena	FC	68
Kalin Lucas-Se	Michigan State	PG	66.5
Cam Long-Se	George Mason	G	66.5
Gilberto Clavell-Se	Sam Houston	F	65
Chris Wright-Se	Dayton	F	63.5
Frank Hassell-Se	Old Dominion	FC	63
Chris Warren-Se	Mississippi	PG	62.5
Andy Ogide-Se	Colorado State	FC	62.5
James Beatty-Se	Rutgers	PG	58.5
Jeremy Hazell-(Se)	Seton Hall	SG	58
Matt Howard-Se	Butler	PF	57
Brandon Moore-Se	Mercer	F	53

 

 

Position Overview (per my statistical scoring system)

POINT GUARD - What I look for when statistically comparing a current college point guard to all the point guards of the past are 4 main things. I call them the "Gold Standards":

1. FG%. Most decent point guards in college today fall into the 40% to 45% range. That is about average. To be a true prospect in my eyes, I look for a point guard with a FG% over 45. To be a possible future star, I prefer to see 50% or better with at least 13.3 FG attempts per 40 minutes.
2. Assist Score. It's not as important to have a high assist total as it is to have a good assist total with a good scoring average. I call it an Assist Score. Basically, what I do is take their points per game total and average it out to 40. Then I do the same with the assist total, double it, then add that assist total to the point total. If they add up to 34 or greater, that's a prospect to look closer at. 37 is the Gold Standard however.
3. Assist/Turnover Rate. In college, it's rare for a point guard to have an A/TO rate of 2.0 or above. In the NBA, 3.0 is the gold standard. Many of the college future star point guards have a 2.0 A/TO rate or better. For freshman, somewhere around 1.75 seems to be the gold standard.
4. Steal Rate. Many of the best point guards to play in the NBA were fantastic thieves in college. Chris Paul snagged almost 3.0 a game per 40 minutes. Jason Kidd, 3.6/40. John Stockton, 4.1/40! Over 2 steals is impressive but 2.5 or higher per 40 minutes, is elite.
5. All the Above. OK, this is kind of an obvious one, but if a player has a FG% over 50, an assist score of 34 or higher, an A/TO rate of 2 or better AND a steal rate of over 2.5 per 40 minutes, this is not only a player to check out, but one to remember as it's RARELY happened. Who was the college player to rate best in all four areas in the same season? None other than what I consider to be the quintessential point guard, Mr. John Stockton. His senior year at Gonzaga he shot 57.7% from the field on 15.1 shots per 40, had an assist score of 37.6, A/TO rate of 2.16 and 4.14 steals per 40 minutes. He went on to the NBA to have average 2.77 steals per game for his career (including 2 steal titles) as well as an A/TO rate of 3.75, and shot 51.5% from the field.

To conclude, a point guard doesn't have to have the "gold standard" in all four areas to become a great player nor do they have to have any! However, it IS rare to find a star PG in the NBA that didn't have 1 or 2 of the above standards when they played in college. Freshman and sophomores are given a little slack though, since I have never seen a player in his freshman year come close to having all four of the above criteria...including John Stockton.

 

Kyrie Irving -

My opinions: Looks like the Real Deal here. Fantastic body control when finishing at the basket. For his size, he is an excellent finisher at the rim though he favors his right hand considerably. Kyrie is never afraid of contact. Not extremely athletic but he is quick and determined. Deadly outside shooter but not fantastic yet at the dribble and pull-up from 15 feet and out.

Statistically speaking: Irving gets to the FT line at a phenomenal rate of 9.3 attempts per 40 minutes. For a rookie point guard that is near unmatched, though it is in only 11 games of action. That shows that he will drive the ball and is not afraid at all of contact. 6.3 assists per 40 is very good considering he is also putting up 25.5 points per 40! Proving his great shooting touch, he shoots an outstanding 52.9% from the field, 90% from the FT line and over 45% from three. 2.1 steals per 40 minutes is very acceptable. A/TO rate of 1.7 for a freshman is better than average. Solid in almost every area.

 

Derrick Williams -

My opinions: Super athletic 6'8" power forward that can dunk almost as flashy as Blake Griffin. Not a huge leaper standing still (29" vert) but with a head start and due to his 7'1" wingspan, he can dunk over just about anybody. Surprisingly fast and crafty on the perimeter, he surprises people off the dribble drive and gets to the basket fairly well. Not a jump shooter off the dribble but is a scorer and is ferocious inside as well as hitting open outside shots from 15' all the way out to the three point line.

Statistically speaking: Free throws. That's right, free throws. 11.6 attempts per 40 minutes show that he is a beast down low. Anytime a power player has more free throw attempts per game (8.7) than rebounds (8.3), you are almost guaranteed to have a player who is an inside force. Due to his athleticism he can grab rebounds away from taller players with his quick reactive abilities. He grabs 11.1 boards per 40 mins which is not overly impressive but is by no means inadequate. He is not an outstanding defender statistically (1.3 steals/40 and 0.9 blocks/40) but due to his quickness and strength should end up being at least a good defender. His impressive FG% of 59.0 is mostly because he doesn't take many bad shots (only 13.3 FGA per 40 mins) and knows his limitations offensively.

 

Kemba Walker -

My opinions: 6'1" junior. Here is a player that could be at #7 when the Kings pick. His best asset is his big heart and competitive fire. Made a lot of big shots for Connecticut and was never shy to take those shots. Similar to DeMarcus Cousins in that he plays with his emotions on his sleeve, however he can keep his head and knows how to channel those emotions to get the best out of himself. I am not sure how well he will do in the NBA at setting his teammates up. He is a true scoring point guard but if he can do something similar to what Russell Westbrook has done with his passing, Kemba could turn out to be better than he scores on my system. He is no future star it seems but could end up being a solid starter in a few years.

Statistically speaking: What jumps out to me at first glance is his scoring average of 25 ppg/40 minutes. His scoring average went up considerably from last season (16.5/40 PPG). That number is inflated a bit due to his very good ability to get to the free throw line 8.2 times per 40 and make them at an 82% clip. His other shooting stats are a bit less impressive, especially for a junior. He only shoots 42.8% from the field and 33% from three. I am not so concerned with his FG% due to the fact that he took over 19 shots per game. In the NBA he will be a bit more discerning which should help his percentage. Even still, he takes a bit too many threes (5.5 per game) than he should. He will have to get better at the deep shot if he is going to be taking that many attempts. His assist total is below average at 4.8/40, however his A/TO rate of 1.98 is actually very impressive considering he controls the ball as much as he does. That bodes very fairly well for him moving into a point guard role in the NBA. 2.0 steals/40 is a product of his instincts and quickness.

 

Brandon Knight -

My opinions: Very quick and athletic. Good leaping ability (37.5" max vertical) off the dribble. Good shooter that can hit set shots, shots off the dribble and off screens from about any distance 23 feet and in. Crafty and confident, Brandon seems to have an idea of what he wants to do out on the court. Very fluid game. His score is a bit lower than I thought it would be and since it is only his freshman year and he seems to have a high basketball IQ, I expect him to exceed his score by the time his career is over but his freshman year was somewhat inconsistent.

Statistically speaking: He scores so seemingly low not because any specific stat is terrible but because he doesn't excel in any area. Let's look at how he stacks up on the "Gold Standard" for point guards that I detailed above.

1. FG% - 42.3%. Well below the 50%. Kemba Walker shot only 42.8% but that was on 19 FG attempts (including 5.9 threes) per 40 minutes. Kyrie Irving (another freshman) shot a fantastic 52.9% from the field (5.2 3-pt attempts/40), though he only averaged 13.8 shots per 40. Brandon shoots 42.3% on 15 FGA/40 with 6.8 shots via the three. If he cut down his 3-pt attempts a bit, he could easily reach the upper 40 percent range from the field.
2. Assist Score - 28.6. Not a big deal to be under 34 as a freshman, though over 30 is preferred, especially for a player that played as many minutes as he did. For comparison, Derrick Rose scored a 33.2 A.S. as a freshman. Likewise Chris Paul scored a 31.7, John Wall scored a 34.0 and Tyreke Evans scored a 34.3 as freshmen. Brandon's main competition Kyrie Irving, scored a fantastic 38.0 as a freshman and Kemba Walker scored 34.8 as a junior.
3. Assist/Turnover rate - 1.33. Well below the 2.0 gold standard for a "pure" point guard. This is even below the norm for a freshman high draft prospect at the point guard position. Fellow recent freshmen John Wall had a 1.61 A/TO rating and Derrick Rose had a 1.77 rating. Kyrie Irving has a 1.74 rating. Junior Kemba Walker, 1.98.
4. Steals - 0.7/40. Miles below the 2.5 gold standard. There are many factors that could be at play here such as poor defensive instincts or lack of effort on defense. On certain teams, the coach tells his guards to not be overly aggressive and play a more controlled defense, so players have a lower steal total than they normally could get. Not so at Kentucky. In fact last year, John Wall averaged 2.1 steals/40 at Kentucky and in 2005 Rajon Rondo at Kentucky averaged 4.1/40 steals as a freshman!

  The statistic I like the best about Knight is his 3-pt percentage. No, 37.7% is not going to knock anyone socks off (wow, how old is that saying anyway? Mental note: learn some sayings post 1980) but as a freshman point guard who took 6.8 threes per game, that's very respectable. He easily has NBA range as well. He is also a good FT shooter at 79.5%.

 

Marcus Morris - (Click on his name to see a YouTube highlight clip and click HERE for a draft workout video)

My opinions: I like this player. A lot. If I were Petrie, I would take Morris with the 7th pick unless Irving, Williams, Walker or maybe Knight was on the board. I don't know enough about Valanciunas or Kanter to pick them above Morris. I leave that to the expert European scouts. The Kings will not pick him since I don't even think he worked out for them, but Morris in the Kings starting line-up at small forward (as the Kings are right now) would make them the best rebounding five in the league. Morris is the type of player the Kings look for:

Toughness? Check

Rebounding? Check

Fundamentals? Check

3-pt shooting? Check

Mid-range shooting? Check

Intangibles? Check

About the only thing Marcus is not is a superb athlete or great passer though he does show flashes of having that nugget in his game if he works on it. He is extremely solid with his back to the basket, even better than most big men. He has all the tools in the post: Great footwork, a drop step, mid-range face-up jump shot, turn around fade away jump shot, one-hand runner, hook shot, patience and craftiness. On the perimeter he can shoot a set shot, or shoot off the dribble. He is not the best defender in the world due to his 6'9", 235 lb frame and would have a tough time guarding small forwards the likes of Carmelo Anthony or Lebron James but against smaller forwards, he could take them into the post and have his way with them on the offensive end. He reminds me very much of Corliss Williamson if Corliss was 6'9", had 3-pt range, a fantastic mid-range jump shot and a better post game. Not too shabby if you ask me.

Statistically speaking: Very little to not like. Scoring? 24.3 points per 40 minutes is outstanding. 10.7 rebounds/40 including 3.7 offensive rebounds/40. 57.0 FG% on 15.7 shots/40. 34.2% 3-pt shooter on 2.8 attempts/40. 8.0 FTA/40. Low turnover rate. Average foul rate. 57.0 FG% puts him in league with past college junior small forwards such as LaPhonso Ellis (57.3%), Clyde Drexler (53.5%), Scottie Pippen (55.6%) and Grant Hill (57.8%). FT shooting is his biggest statistical weakness at only 68.8%.

 

Jimmer Fredette -

My opinions: Hmm, who does he remind me of? Minus the fancy ball handling and passing flair...Jason Williams anyone? Well OK, more like Stephen Curry really. This guy LOVES to put it up as soon as it hits his hands. He has range out to 30 feet and will shoot from there if he feels hot. High volume shooter. Playing for a mid-conference, his statistics are a bit skewed though not by a large margin. He is a decent ball handler but nothing special. He is no Tyreke Evans at getting to the hoop but he is quicker than he seems and can break down his man to kick out to open teammates. He needs a lot of shots to get his points. Has a tendency to get ahead of himself witch causes unforced turnovers.

Statistically speaking: Well, let's compare him with recent similar high volume shooting college player Stephen Curry:

Jimmer: FG%-45.2, FGA/40-23.1, 3-pt%-39.6, 3-pt attempts/40-9.5, Assists/40-4.8, FTA/40-8.5, PPG/40-32.3, A/TO-1.22, Steals/40-1.5

Stephen:FG%-45.4, FGA/40-24.0, 3pt%-38.7, 3-pt attempts/40-11.7, Assists/40-6.6, FTA/40-8.8, PPG/40-33.9, A/TO-1.50, Steals/40-3.0

The FG% is very similar as is the FG attempts and 3-pt% but Curry has Jimmer beat in every other category and by a wide margin in assists and steals. Also, Curry was a scoring machine straight out of high school while Fredette came into his own in his junior year. I think that Jimmer will be a very good NBA player. Whether it's as a full-time starter or not I am not sure but there is no doubt that he can shoot the basketball. If the Kings take him, I won't be too upset. I remember the Kings picking a point guard in the past that likes to pull up on the break and shoot from 27 feet off the dribble...that didn't turn out too bad. Are they going to be trading for a 6'10" power forward?