While we all agree that better defense, and outside shooting are critical success factors still missing from this team, there is still a consensus that another player to initiate the offense and complement Tyreke's game is essential to bringing the Kings back to prominence and should be our focus in the upcoming NBA Draft.
As a result many here at STR wish for us to select Knight/Walker/Fredette. The reality is the first two may not be available at #7. As for Jimmer, Petrie does like to take a flyer on someone with an outside shot. J-Will liked to jack em up early in his career from downtown and was drafted earlier than expected, Stojakovic with his dead aim was a surprise pick at 14, Martin and Douby also were great beyond the arc coming into the league and picked ahead of perceived value. Because of that nobody should be surprised if Jimmermania comes to Sacramento.
However, Petrie typically surprises us and as such we should start resetting expectations now if Jimmer is not going to become a member of the Sacramento Kings.
So assuming Knight and Walker are off the Board and Fredette is not selected at seven, we will still be in need of someone to complement Tyreke and become a starting floor general.
We all remember how much debate was had over the draft of '09 where 10 players were taken with the first 21 picks and 12 in the first round that could play point guard.
Last year I compared Tyreke to the other PGs drafted in the 2009 Class, posted stats and made comments on a few different criteria exclaiming who was most valuable to their team, who was the best value given their draft position and who had the best star potential. I was curious how this deep class has developed with two years under the belt. I was not surprised that Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings have legit games but I was surprised at the success of the others drafted around them.
Then it came to me: The Kings maybe better off making a deal that lands them one of these other point guards than trying to draft any of the coveted guards in this year's draft.
After the break I will provide some stats and analysis on all of the point guards after their first two years in the league. I hope you enjoy.
height - 6'2" / weight - 182 lbs / Birthday 02/24/88 / Drafted 25th
Height - 6'1" / Weight - 165 lbs / Birthday 08-23-87 / Drafted 21st
Height - 6'3" / Weight - 185 lbs / Birthday 03-14-88 / Drafted 7th
Height - 6'1" / Weight - 196 lbs / Birthday 03-16-88 / Drafted 29th
Height - 6'5" / Weight - 220 lbs / Birthday 09-19-89 / Drafted 4th
Height - 6'0" / Weight - 172 lbs / Birthday 02-06-89 / Drafted 6th
Height - 6'3" / Weight - 185 lbs / Birthday 06-12-90 / Drafted 17th
Height - 6'1" / Weight - 170 lbs / Birthday 09-23-89 / Drafted 10th
Height - 6'0" / Weight - 195 lbs / Birthday 11-03-87 / Drafted 18th
Height - 6'2" / Weight - 175 lbs / Birthday 06-11-87 / Drafted 20th
Height - 6'4" / Weight - 180 lbs / Birthday 10-21-90 / Drafted 5th
height - 6'2" / weight - 180 lbs / Birthday 06-10-88 / Drafted 19th
Quick Stats: This compares the whole class in terms of their basic production over the last two seasons. I deleted the other members of the class but was unable to delete the rows so sorry for the bad spacing. Since Ricky Rubio didn't play in the NBA over the last two seasons I combined his two euro league teams stats to give a some context to how he has fared
|4||SAC||Tyreke Evans||University of Memphis||129||4784||2462||655||733||.436||.273||.756||37.1||19.1||5.1||5.7|
|6||MIN||Jonny Flynn||Syracuse University||134||3322||1373||268||538||.405||.343||.817||24.8||10.2||2.0||4.0|
|7||GSW||Stephen Curry||Davidson College||154||5385||2772||642||904||.470||.439||.911||35.0||18.0||4.2||5.9|
|17||PHI||Jrue Holiday||University of California, Los Angeles||155||4668||1732||523||810||.445||.375||.803||30.1||11.2||3.4||5.2|
|18||MIN||Ty Lawson||University of North Carolina||145||3419||1475||333||580||.507||.406||.762||23.6||10.2||2.3||4.0|
|19||ATL||Jeff Teague||Wake Forest University||141||1682||589||169||260||.420||.313||.808||11.9||4.2||1.2||1.8|
|20||UTA||Eric Maynor||Virginia Commonwealth University||163||2469||730||250||504||.411||.353||.725||15.1||4.5||1.5||3.1|
|21||NOH||Darren Collison||University of California, Los Angeles||155||4469||1985||417||835||.467||.364||.862||28.8||12.8||2.7||5.4|
|29||LAL||Toney Douglas||Florida State University||137||3058||1337||352||356||.430||.378||.800||22.3||9.8||2.6||2.6|
Advanced Stats: I believe there are different ways to evaluate how effective each of these players have been. As such I am not advocating that the stats I selected are completely fool proof nor the best but are at least relevant to evaluating a player who is chartered with playing point guard in the NBA. Here are some stats that I think help determine how effective a point guard is.
Player - PER / efg% / assist % / steal % / Hand's Rating (refer to Hollinger or 82games.com for definitions)
RB - 15.6 / .544 / .200 / .021 / 12.8
DC - 16.0 / .493 / .308 / .019 / 18.9
SC - 17.7 / .543 / .263 / .024 / 18.6
TD - 15.1 / .522 / .185 / .022 / 16.2
TE - 16.5 / .455 / .256 / .021 / 18.0
JF - 11.3 / .448 / .256 / .017 / 13.7
JH - 14.3 / .492 / .273 / .022 / 19.9
BJ - 15.0 / .436 / .279 / .022 / 19.7
TL - 17.4 / .555 / .267 / .019 / 21.6
EM - 11.7 / .453 / .309 / .016 / 26.0
RR - 17.4 / .445 / NA / NA / NA
JT - 13.1 / .444 / .241 / .025 / 16.8
Interpreting the Numbers:
While most of us have tracked Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings it may come as a surprise that Ty Lawson leads the pack in PER, effective field goal percentage, and second in Hand's rating. Eric Maynor also tops the list in Assist Percentage and Hand's Rating. Most of all there is a pretty tight pack in terms of overall production and a few of these guys can certainly be a very cost effective side kick to Tyreke.
In conclusion, While I do like the idea either Knight, Walker or Fredette being on our roster I like them less with the seventh pick and if we could deal the pick and a SF to land a bona fide 3 plus a pass first, take care of the ball point guard, I think we will be better off in the long run.
In just a day away, I guess we will all find out.