FanPost

John Salmons vs. Player X

This is a head to head comparison of two players, John Salmons and the infamous Player X.  Player X is a player Kings fans have expressed interest in, and is a small forward.  John Salmons is...well...John Salmons.  He's been mostly a shooting guard in his career, but has played some small forward.  Given that Player X is a player that Kings fans have wanted in the past, the purpose of this post is to see if Salmons is a suitable substitute for Player X.  Disclaimer:  time frames for statistics are not selected for any particular reason and are extremely arbitrary.  Anyway, here we go:

One of the more important qualities Kings fans want in a small forward is the ability to not demand the ball.  Let's use USG% to see how many possessions each of the two players has used:

Salmons

Season  USG% 
2007-08  19.2
2008-09  21.3
2009-10  19.9
2010-11  20.9

 

Player X

Season  USG% 
2007-08  23.8
2008-09  22.3
2009-10  21.8
2010-11  19.2

 

Player X has put up a slightly higher USG%.  Common sense would say that the reason for this is because Player X is a superior offensive player.  Let's take a look then:

Salmons

Season  TS%  eFG% 
2007-08  0.556 0.501
2008-09  0.580 0.530
2009-10  0.553 0.501
2010-11  0.510 0.462

 

Player X

Season  TS%  eFG% 
2007-08  0.543 0.495
2008-09  0.560 0.507
2009-10  0.535 0.485
2010-11  0.530 0.486

 

Salmons and Player X are similarly efficient.  I will tell you that Player X has a higher PER, but a lot of it is because Player X is a much better rebounder and assist-getter:

Salmons

Season  TRB%  AST% 
2007-08  8.2 13.4
2008-09  6.5 14.5
2009-10  5.4 12.9
2010-11  6.1 17.5

 

Player X

Season  TRB%  AST% 
2007-08  8.2 20.3
2008-09  8.6 22.4
2009-10  9.8 23.7
2010-11  9.0 26.4

 

So it appears that Player X is a superior offensive player overall, but Salmons is a comparable shooter.  They also use (or have used) a similar amount of possessions over the past four years.  Let's see how often they turn the ball over:

Salmons

Season  TOV% 
2007-08  15.7
2008-09  11.7
2009-10  9.9
2010-11  12.0

 

Player X

Season  TOV% 
2007-08  12.5
2008-09  13.9
2009-10  14.3
2010-11  13.4

 

Player X turns the ball over more often than Salmons.  Good to know.

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Another important quality Kings fans want in a small forward is defense.  Let's take a look at some defensive stats:

Salmons

Season  STL%  BLK%  DRtg 
2007-08  1.9 1.0 110
2008-09  1.4 0.6 115
2009-10  1.8 0.7 106
2010-11  1.5 0.9 105

 

Player X

Season  STL%  BLK%  DRtg 
2007-08  2.8 1.2 105
2008-09  2.1 0.9 108
2009-10  2.3 1.4 109
2010-11  2.1 1.2 104

 

Though DRtg has its flaws, Salmons is similar to Player X (though not quite as good).  In terms of steals and blocks, Player X holds a clear edge, but Salmons is no slouch either.  Salmons seems like the "poor man's" version of Player X in this regard.

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Kings fans seem to desire a small forward that can shoot three-pointers to help the Kings spread the floor.  Let's take a look at these players' outside shooting:

Salmons

Season  3P  3PA  3P% 
2007-08  39 120 0.325
2008-09  126 302 0.417
2009-10  118 309 0.382
2010-11  83 219 0.379

 

Player X

Season  3P  3PA  3P% 
2007-08  101 307 0.329
2008-09  80 261 0.307
2009-10  94 303 0.310
2010-11  61 181 0.337

 

Salmons holds a clear advantage over Player X in terms of three-point shooting with the exception of 2007-2008.  Salmons seemed to become a much better three-point shooter after that season.

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Overall, though Player X is clearly the superior player, I honestly don't believe Salmons' stats are a whole lot worse. Salmons seems like a "poor man's" Player X to me.  Now take into consideration that Salmons cost the Kings a heck of a lot less to acquire than Player X would have, and it seems that Geoff Petrie had similar thinking.  Who is Player X?

http://bit.ly/playerx

Given their statistics, do you believe Salmons at the price he cost is an acceptable substitute for Player X given what it would have cost to acquire Player X?  I don't believe Salmons is as good of a player, but I believe they can fill relatively similar roles.  Given their USG%, Salmons doesn't seem any less likely to have trouble filling a lesser-scoring small forward role than Player X.  Let me know what you think.  Salmons is obviously not as good of a player, but I also don't believe he was a wasted acquisition.

 

I apologize if the tables don't line up very well; I had trouble making them align correctly.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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