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Like Herod

Soundtrack.

It's hard to explain to skeptics what we see in DeMarcus Cousins. Those who get it, get it. Those flashes of dominance, those tools refined and raw. The passion. If you're not a fan of unfinished potential and an unkempt garden, DeMarcus Cousins may not be for you. 

We, of course, believed in the potential of Spencer Hawes, too, but that was different. We can see now that praying for beanpoles to toughen up to NBA standards is like, well, praying. You don't drop to your knees and find yourself rewarded with eternal life. It's a prayer for a reason: you are putting your faith in that which cannot be achieved without divine intervention. 

Nothing about DeMarcus Cousins feels like church, lest you hail from the north and believe that he is Odin's avatar.

Star-divide

Putting your finger on the it that speaks of Cousins' unspeakable promise is difficult, but I think I have a lead on the riddle. At the mothership, I've been doing some work on shot creation. Shot creation is the method by which shots are created. That might sound dumb on first listen if you aren't heavy into stats circles. But it goes like this: anyone can take a shot, but it takes a certain type of player to consistently create shots. While the Kings offense of the past five seasons has often resembled a random sequence of players firing up jumpers or making adventurous forays toward the rim, offenses do need to actually function to thrive. To thrive, most offenses -- let's discount the Gil-Hughes Wizards or the post-Baron Warriors -- need to feature at least one shot creator: a player who can get himself or a teammate a decent look at the hoop. Usually this is a point guard. Sometimes, it's a two-guard or a small forward.

Occasionally -- and only that -- it's a big man.

Creation Ratio, which I wrote about a bit ago, is the rate of shots created to used shots that were create by others. Assists and unassisted own attempts are shots created. Assisted shot attempts are shots used. Free throws count too, but Creation Ratio adjusts for the lower rate at which free throws are assisted compared to field goals. 

A quick example: if Jimmer Fredette throws a halfcourt alley-oop to Donte Greene on the first possession, feeds J.J. Hickson on the break with Hickson earning a trip to the line on the next and takes a pass draw-and-kick pass from Tyreke Evans for a made three-pointer on the third, Jimmer will have created two shots (the assist to Té and the assisted FTs to J.J.) and used one shot (the assist from 'Reke). At that point, Jimmer's Creation Ratio would be 2.0.

You get a low Creation Ratio if you are set up on most of your shots, and if you don't create many shots for yourself or your teammates. You get a high Creation Ratio if you set up your teammates or create your own shots frequently, and if you don't rely on teammates to set you up. It's not a good-bad thing necessarily: Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant have low Creation Ratios, while Derrick Rose and Steve Nash have high ones. It tends to sort out by position, where most high-CR players are point guards.

This is where DMC comes in.

Beno Udrih's Creation Ratio last season was 2.07. (So he created two shots for every one he used.) Tyreke Evans was at 4.08. (That was 21st among all point guards who played at least 800 minutes.) The average for that set of point guards was 3.6. Marcus Thornton was at 1.69 with the Kings. WIth the Bucks, John Salmons was at 2.08. Carl Landry was at 1.37; Jason Thompson was at 0.85. Samuel Dalembert was at 1.03. (Offensive rebounders tend to be higher than expected due to heavy unassisted FGA numbers.) 

DeMarcus Cousins led all power forwards and centers with 2.37. Higher than a Michael Beasley without a point guard (1.58). Higher than Zach Randolph (1.43). Higher than Andrew Bynum (1.54) and Al Jefferson (0.99) and even Dwight Howard (1.35). Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh, Greg Monroe, Kevin Love, of course Blake Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge. ALL OF THEM. When it came to getting shots last season, DeMarcus Cousins created them himself more frequently than all of the rest.

In fact, only two small forwards (LeBron James and Hedo Turkoglu) and five shooting guards (the gunnerific Jordan Crawford, Dwyane Wade, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant and Brandon Roy) had Creation Ratios higher than DMC. Isn't that something?

It's something. But what? Here's my read: DeMarcus Cousins did not flourish within the offense as a rookie. At Kentucky, he was ordered to dominate under the rim, 100 percent of the time. In Sacramento, he had freedom from Day 1 ... in Vegas! Mario Elie let him wear himself out taking jumpers, executing post move 15 feet from the basket, running the ball up the court. That carried over, as Cousins tried to do too much consistently as the season began. He calmed down for stretches -- January was his best run in terms of doing what he was capable of instead of what he inspires to be capable of -- but was overall on a much looser offensive leash than he'd been at UK. He showed nice touch on the long jumper ... but not nice enough to be taking so many. He showed beautiful passing instincts ... but not so beautiful to be trying to thread the needle so often. He was a kid who'd been locked up too tight as a teenager and had to prove he could wild out. He proved it. (I'm talking about offense here, not choke signs and Donte Greene fisticuffs.)

The Kings' offense was not great with DeMarcus, and it wouldn't have been great without him. It was the sum of its parts: a gunny Beno Udrih, ice-cold Greene, ice-cold Omri Casspi, some discouraged Carl Landry, an unshackled Samuel Dalembert (not a good thing), a Jason Thompson in the mire, an injured and shot-still-broken Tyreke Evans, a quick burst of Marcus Thornton and DeMarcus Cousins, who insisted on doing his own thing. The Kings' offense ranked No. 25, and that was about right. Had the shooters shot or the focal point been 100 percent or the rookie big man have taken a more appropriate role, things could have been a bit better, like No. 20 or so. But this was the offense. This is what was constructed.

But it gets better. Cousins had an awful shooting percentage, he was terribly inefficient. But that will change. High-usage players almost universally see their efficiency improve early in their careers. Part Two: Cousins will almost assuredly create a smaller ratio of his shots going forward. Whether it be through pinpoint passes from Fredette or laser deliveries from Evans, or just a calming of the personal frenzy for DMC himself, Cousins will not lead all big men in Creation Ratio again. If he does, let us pray (there's that sticky concept again) that it is because he is unstoppable, and because Paul Westphal has deemed the offense DeMarcus' to run.

When Cousins finds his place and the guards pick up more of the slack and Hickson and Salmons and the woodwinds and the orchestra and the galaxy and the universe all find their order, DeMarcus will be right where we see he will be: at the center of it all. He is a Sun without a system, but that's all coming together now, and we'll see it evolve into something wonderful. Soon.

(In case you're wondering, Herod The Great created a number of incredible things while in power. Then he killed his family and a number of priests. I swear that I don't mean anything by it.)

Comment 41 comments  |  11 recs  | 

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A super long post with a musical soundtrack?

Guys, I think Pookey hacked into Ziller’s account.

(Great post btw)

Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.

by Aykis16 on Sep 17, 2011 5:12 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Naw, only one musical interlude

not Pookey enough. There is only one PookeyGuru.

by betweentheeyes on Sep 17, 2011 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

where the hell

is that guy, anyway? Haven’t seen him in months.

formerly "what_the_crap"

by Dub_TC on Sep 18, 2011 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

double secret probation

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Sep 19, 2011 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thought the same thing

Ha!

formerly "what_the_crap"

by Dub_TC on Sep 17, 2011 6:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

With Jimmer, Salmons, and Thornton hanging out on the perimeter

I think his shot creation may stay similarly high if the kings focus on an inside out game. And Reke happens to shoot decent from three with his feet set too.

Prediction: Kings lead the league next year in attempted 3’s. Notice I did not say anything about percentages.

A brief comparison between Mormonism and Historic Christianity
http://carm.org/comparison-between-christian-doctrine-and-mormon-doctrine

A former atheist's (me) appeal: Creation Science
http://creation.com/creation-answers

by sac_faithful on Sep 17, 2011 5:31 PM PDT reply actions  

Give me a guy

with a big heart, great passion and skills and I’ll give you a future All Star. That’s what I see for Cousins. His development will be fun to watch.

by nohops on Sep 17, 2011 6:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Interestingly, for DMC to be a better creator

he needs to be more dominant near the rim. The minute he’s dominant near the rim, teams will start to double him, leaving teammates open. He can then use his good passing skills to find open teammates for a catch-and-shoot opportunity.

But with JJ Hickson alongside Cousins, wouldn’t it just be paint congestion if both stayed under the rim? So is this an indication that PW won’t rein DMC in and DMC won’t be around the rim, or that JJ is DMC-lite and his replacement off the bench (meaning JT starts)?

This.

by elfboy_ on Sep 17, 2011 9:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Well JJ Hickson is by no means at his best as a low-post player

he’s someone you pass to when he’s cutting, or as a catch-and-shoot midrange guy. Letting him iso in the low-post is NOT a good recipe.

" 1 + 1 = 3 " - David Kahn

by Shizzo on Sep 17, 2011 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah great thing about Hickson is that he doesn't need the ball to be effective

I really think he’s going to be great alongside Cousins, particularly because of Cousins’ skill set. He also seems to run the floor very well. I’m expecting a lot of huge put back dunks.

by amack10 on Sep 18, 2011 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's also the bad thing about JJ.

He isn’t a creator for himself or others. He going to make his shots off assists from others and from clearing the glass. And, like DMC he has a very poor shooting percentage.

Unless some changes are made to create shots for DMC and JJ, we could have the poorest shooting bigs in the league.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy

by HighTops on Sep 18, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cousins will be a better player than Tyreke

There, I said it.

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Sep 19, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ziller+Mogwai=Heaven.

Great article.

It makes perfect sense to me that you would be a Mogwai fan, being that you are clearly awesome.

"Cousins is the Blaster to Evans’ Master, the Hammer to Evans’ Sickle"- HP

by tomroadrunner on Sep 17, 2011 9:52 PM PDT reply actions  

I wish that I could write like this,

but I am grateful that I can read. Rec’d.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Sep 17, 2011 9:53 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

Ziller displays his dominance.

Nice read, man. Way to tie it all up, too. Rec’d.

"Put Kobe or Lebron in a wheelchair, and I can GUARANTEE Tyreke would demolish either. You might want to rethink what you just said." - MarcusC.

"I never read those trade threads. They seem to be mainly populated with the sports equivalent of people who think the Rapture is imminent." - andy sims.

"I regularly sacrifice good taste for great laughs." - Section214 (speaking of which, check out my comedy website, where you can access video clips of my stand-up @ here

by PhutureKings on Sep 18, 2011 2:17 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Just a curious ?

Is the “flaws” in DC’s rookie season similiar to the “flaws” that were found in Webber’s rookie season in Golden State?

by Fredman on Sep 18, 2011 5:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Apples and Oranges

But no. C. Webb was ROTY and dominated.

A brief comparison between Mormonism and Historic Christianity
http://carm.org/comparison-between-christian-doctrine-and-mormon-doctrine

A former atheist's (me) appeal: Creation Science
http://creation.com/creation-answers

by sac_faithful on Sep 18, 2011 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was referring to more to attitude/maturity comparision of the two during their RS

“Webber had an outstanding first year, averaging 17.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game and winning the NBA Rookie of the Year Award. He was instrumental in leading the Warriors back into the playoffs. However, he had a long-standing conflict with his coach, Don Nelson.5 Nelson wanted to make Webber primarily a post player, despite Webber’s superb passing ability and good ball handling skills for someone his size at 6 ft 10 in (2.08 m) tall. Webber also disliked playing a substantial amount of time at center, given Nelson’s propensity towards smaller, faster line ups. In the 1994 off-season, the Warriors acquired Rony Seikaly so that Webber could play primarily at power forward. However, at the time, the differences between Webber and Nelson were considered to be irreconcilable. Webber exercised a one-year escape clause in his contract, stating he had no intentions of returning to the Warriors. With few alternatives, Golden State agreed to a sign and trade deal, sending Webber to the Washington Bullets (now the Wizards) for forward Tom Gugliotta and three first round draft picks.”

by Fredman on Sep 19, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Webber played three years at Michigan in an NBA style offense

with very good teammates

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Sep 19, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ziller's articles converted into NBA stats..

I say he would average about 24-10. All-Star material

Bleeding Black and Purple 6710 miles South East of Sacramento.

by ZenBaller on Sep 18, 2011 6:34 AM PDT reply actions  

StR Editors comparison -

TZ is the Dirk Nowitzki of Basketball blogging. A maestro.

Section214 is Shane Battier, a respected veteran and our best defense against the trolls. Always brings the funny.

Rbiegler is Kevin Martin… missing for large periods of time, but when he’s on you know he’s gonna be good. Super efficient in his comments/rec’d ratio.

Exhibit G is Pooh Jeter, doesn’t always post much, but when he does its a nice change of pace.

I’ll leave it up to you guys to make a comparison for me. As long as its not a Natting Laker.

Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.

by Aykis16 on Sep 18, 2011 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Love the rbiegler comparison!

" 1 + 1 = 3 " - David Kahn

by Shizzo on Sep 18, 2011 1:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'll go Marc Gasol

Good all around game – skills in the post, knows how to rebound and assist, gets some blocks in when he has to, can quietly but convincingly control a game, but still young and upcoming and getting better every season (and has a some Euro flair to him and no red flags).

by betweentheeyes on Sep 18, 2011 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

My other choice was Russell Westbrook

Fast, can come out of nowhere and make you marvel, though young, already a recognized star – I skipped on Westie becfuse of the flak he took during the playoffs – though change TZ to Durant and Section to……. the hilarious Kendrick Perkins, no, no, no – Section is the Thabo Sefolosha of StR (I have no idea what that means either but said out load in a crowded room and people will look away from you and shake their head, trust me on that) – I know! Section is Serge Ibaka only Sergei is slightly taller and an iota more muscular funnier.
Uhmmm. when does the lockout end?

by betweentheeyes on Sep 18, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're Demarcus Cousins.

So much skill and potential, we’re just waiting on you to grow up and be an all-star.

by glazier_25 on Sep 18, 2011 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Brandon Jennings

Shoots first but still creates for others, quick, and you never know what he’s going to say next.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Sep 19, 2011 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great read, Tom

Still, I think DeMarcus’ potential is capped by his work ethic. Much remains to be seen in that regard.

by otis29 on Sep 18, 2011 8:38 AM PDT reply actions  

We're talking about a guy who dropped 6 lbs of fat in his first month following the draft.

From what I’ve seen, Cousins listens to the criticism, knows his shortcomings, and has demonstrated that he works to improve those shortcomings.

"Where hope goes to die"

by napg on Sep 18, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's the very least he could do

The rest is a matter of opinion, I suppose. Perhaps Cousins listened to the criticisms, but there were times during the season he was exactly the guy that was criticized before the draft.

All that matters to me is what kind of shape he shows up when (if) the season starts.

by otis29 on Sep 18, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Mogwai and the Kings? You sir, are awesome.

Looking forward to seeing DMC mature into the player we all know he can be.

by M4L on Sep 18, 2011 11:52 AM PDT reply actions  

Don't want to create a separate fanshot on this so I'll just throw it here

Spain won Eurobasket 2011 today… Rick Rubio played backup to Jose Calderon, average 1.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 15.5 MPG over 11 games. He shot 23.3% overall and that’s mainly because he went 1/15 from 3P over the whole tournament. From 2 he was 6/15. Oh I guess I should mention his 1.4 steals too.

Ricky looks like he’ll be good for some assists and solid d and that’s about it. His offense is terrible. We’ll see if that changes in Minnesota and the NBA.

Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.

by Aykis16 on Sep 18, 2011 4:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Whoa.

OK, Ziller, you are doing God’s work here. And by God I mean Odin.

Why does STR kick so much ass?

It’s the sublime flavor of the foundation built by its creators.

This made my day. And my day’s are darkened by the lockout.

Thanks!!!

by yokosolo on Sep 18, 2011 4:43 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I'm pretty late to join the conversation here,

but I wonder if Cousins’ high creation ratio might have more to do with how the statistic is defined than Cousins’ ability to create shots.

See, if you’re a high usage player (which DeMarcus is), your only way to have a low shot creation ratio given its current definition is to take a lot of assisted FGAs. As High Tops pointed out (over and over again) a little while back, the Kings have been exceptionally bad lately at giving our bigs assisted baskets near the rim. So, unless our bigs become catch-and-shoot players (players receiving assisted FGAs away from the rim), it will be impossible for them to have low creation ratios (because they have no chance to take assisted FGAs at the rim).

So all that Cousins’ high creation ratio says to me is:
-He’s a high usage player (meaning he takes a lot of FGAs and collects a couple assists per game),
-He plays on a team that’s extremely bad at setting up its bigs (meaning he doesn’t get easy assisted FGAs), and
-He’s not a catch-and-shoot player (meaning he doesn’t take a lot of difficult assisted FGAs)

If we signed Steve Nash and Cousins started getting a lot of good attempts at the rim, his shot creation ratio would go down (because more assisted FGs would be added to the denominator), and that would be a good thing.

Am I glad we have Cousins? Yes. Am I super impressed that his shot creation ratio is a good thing? Not exactly. I guess my biggest take home is that even if he might spend a little much time on the perimeter, he seems not to be playing too much of a catch-and-shoot game.

Am I being too harsh on the player? On the statistic?

by twasserm on Sep 19, 2011 4:19 AM PDT reply actions  

Top Blog

Great to be back talking kings basketball an..

by ukca375 on Sep 19, 2011 6:37 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

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