Advanced Stats: Looking At Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette And Kings' Guards
by Aykis16 on Jan 17, 2012 10:00 AM PST
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PrintStatistics are a valuable tool when analyzing how a player is performing on the court, but at their most basic, statistics don't tell the whole story. Advanced Statistics help broaden the narrative a bit and provide a more accurate reading of how a player is performing on the court. Ideally when analyzing a players play, you don't want to use just statistics or just your eyes, but a combination of both.
As Kings fans, we've watched almost every game this team has played. Most of us have an idea of what our players do well and what they don't. In this post, I'm going to go more in-depth by providing some complementary advanced statistics to analyze our players. This first post is on the guards, with posts on the wings and the bigs coming Wednesday and Thursday respectively. I'll be doing these analyses approximately once a month, so that we can track our teams' progression and regression.
I will be using several sources for my analysis. First, I'll be using the Advanced Statistics found on Basketball-Reference (PER, TS%, AST%, etc.). I will also be using Synergy Sports Technology's data to give a more in-depth look at how our players perform each possession, both offensively and defensively. Synergy Sports uses PPP (Points Per Possession) to track individual players. They track individual play types on both ends of the court and I will be provding samples of each players major play types. Finally, I'll be using HoopData's shot location statistics to see how our players shoot from certain locations.
The following statistics were compiled as of January 16th, 2012, before the Minnesota game. If you would like some explanations of the following statistics, Basketball-Reference has explanations here.
Tyreke Evans
PER: 18.0
TS%: .514
ORB%: 2.0
DRB%: 12.1%
AST%: 20.7%
STL%: 2.2%
BLK%: 1.1%
TOV%: 13.9%
USG%: 25.0
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.84
- Isolation (27.6%): 0.81
- Transition (23.3%): 1.15
- P&R Ball Handler (17.2%): 0.5
Shot Locations
- At Rim: 4.5 FGM / 6.9 FGA (65.1%)
- 3-9 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 1.9 FGA (11.1%)
- 10-15 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.4 FGA (20.0%)
- 16-23 Feet: 1.3 FGM / 3.8 FGA (35.0%)
- Threes: 0.5 FGM / 2.2 FGA (22.7%)
- Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.45
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.81
- P&R Ball Handler (29%): 0.62
- Spot-Up (26.9%): 1.08
- Off Screen (15.9%): 0.78
- Isolation (14.5%): 0.62
Analysis:
Tyreke is playing similarly to his rookie year, with some deviations. He's still scoring inefficiently for a high usage player, posting a poor True Shooting percentage. As Synergy denotes, the majority of his possessions come in Isolation, and he's not scoring at a high rate there. He is scoring very well in transition, which isn't any surprise. Tyreke is once again attacking the rim like a mad man, and he's converting at the highest clip of his career, while also getting to the line a bunch. Unfortunately, he also takes way too many jumpers for having such a poor percentage, although his percentage from 16-23 feet is a career high. Tyreke also isn't assisting on as many buckets this year, but that's a team problem, combining poor ball movement with horrendous shooting. I suspect the next time I do this, that Assist Rate will be more in line with what we've seen in the past.
Defensively, Tyreke is playing the best ball of his career, and it is in part because he has finally learned how to deal with screens a little better. The majority of his time on defense is spent guarding the Pick and Roll ball handler, and he only allows 0.62 points per possession. He also does well guarding an opponent coming off a screen, and is killer in Isolation. He needs to do a better job of closing out on spot-up shooters however, as he's getting killed there, with that being a major part of his defensive possessions. That speaks to Sacramento's poor team defense.
Marcus Thornton
PER: 16.8
TS%: .528
ORB%: 4.5%
DRB%: 7.0%
AST%: 7.9%
STL%: 2.3%
BLK%: 0.2%
TOV%: 10.4%
USG%: 23.4%
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.92
- P&R Ball Handler (26.3%): 0.89
- Spot-Up (21.5%): 1.00
- Transition (20.5%): 1.52
- Isolation (13.2%): 0.52
Shot Locations
- At Rim: 2.0 FGM / 3.6 FGA (56.3%)
- 3-9 Feet: 1.1 FGM / 2.8 FGA (40%)
- 10-15 Feet: 0.4 FGM / 1.2 FGA (36.4%)
- 16-23 Feet: 1.1 FGM / 2.6 FGA (43.0%)
- Threes: 2.1 FGM / 5.7 FGA (36.8%)
- Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.23
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.87
- P&R Ball Handler (40%): 0.79
- Spot-Up (33.3%): 0.97
Analysis:
Marcus is playing very differently from last year, where most of his offensive possessions came from Isolation plays. This year he has been asked to handle the ball more, and he hasn't been doing a great job of it. His assist rate is the lowest of his career, and he's also turning it over more. Offensively, Marcus likes to shoot from anywhere, but particularly from three, where he's hitting a good percentage but not a great percentage. Marcus has scored the best on Spot-up and transition opportunities, another sign that this team needs to run more and stagnate less. Marcus also isn't getting to the line very much for a guy who is aggressive as he is, which is in line with his career.
Defensively, he's done a good job on guarding the Pick and Roll Ball handler, but has done poorly in other areas. Again, on spot-up shots, that's a team defense thing.
Overall, Marcus is in a bit of a slump right now, and we know he can and has played better. He's young and this is a weird season, so I'm not too worried.
Jimmer Fredette
PER: 8.4
TS%: .440
ORB%: 3.2
DRB%: 4.4
AST%: 16.6
STL%: 1.3
BLK%: 0.0
TOV%: 16.1
USG%: 19.1
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.75
- P&R Ball Handler (30.6%): 0.68
- Spot-Up (28.4%): 0.92
- Isolation (12.7%): 0.76
Shot Locations
- At Rim: 0.6 FGM / 1.1 FGA (53.8%)
- 3-9 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 0.8 FGA (33.3%)
- 10-15 Feet: 0.4 FGM / 1.3 FGA (31.3%)
- 16-23 Feet: 0.6 FGM / 1.4 FGA (41.0%)
- Threes: 1.2 FGM / 3.8 FGA (31.6%)
- Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.13
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.85
- P&R Ball Handler (25%): 0.96
- Isolation (16.7%): 0.56
- Off Screen: (12.5%): 1.08
- Hand Off (11.5%): 1.09
Analysis:
There's no two ways about; Jimmer is playing terrible basketball right now. He's shooting the worst out of any of our guards despite supposedly being the best shooter in the past draft. He's assisting almost as much as he's turning it over, and he barely gets to the line at all. Right now about the only thing he's doing well offensively is as a spot-up shooter, and even there he's not doing amazing or anything.
Defensively he's better than expected. He has trouble fighting through screens, but in isolation possessions, he does a good job staying in front of his man and getting a hand in his opponent's face.
All rookies have to adapt to the NBA, and Jimmer is currently experiencing a rough learning curve on a team with terrible offensive cohesion. Hopefully the shots begin to fall for Jimmer soon, because right now all the playing time he's getting is hardly justified.
Isaiah Thomas
PER: 15.6
TS%: .504
ORB%: 2.3
DRB%: 9.1
AST%: 21.9
STL%: 2.3
BLK%: 0.8
TOV%: 17.0
USG%: 23.5
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.85
- P&R Ball Handler (33.3%): 0.9
- Spot-Up (24.7%): 0.78
- Isolation (20.4%): 0.58
Shot Locations
- At Rim: 0.6 FGM / 1.3 FGA (46.7%)
- 3-9 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 0.4 FGA (40%)
- 10-15 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.3 FGA (25.0%)
- 16-23 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 0.7 FGA (38.0%)
- Threes: 0.8 FGM / 2.3 FGA (33.3%)
- Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.47
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.83
- Isolation (25%): 0.38
- P&R Ball Handler (32.8%): 0.71
- Spot-Up (18.8%): 1.58
Analysis:
Statistically, Isaiah is one of the best backup guards in the NBA right now. He's no great shakes offensively, where his height hurts him, but he's very aggressive and gets to the line a bunch. He's assisting at the highest rate on the team, although he also turns it over a tad much. He's a great rebounder for a guy his size, which helps the team get its offense going early.
Defensively he's very effective guarding individual players, but has a problem closing out on shooters, especially due to his height. That will always be a problem, but if the team defense were better, he'd get more help in that area.
Isaiah is showing a lot of promise as a lead guard in the NBA, perhaps not as a starter, but definitely as a change of pace, energy guy off the bench.
Coming Tomorrow: The Wings
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Warning!
When Aykis posts his “Wings” edition, don’t look right at it. Cut a hole in a piece of cardboard and view the shadow instead. It’s the only way that you can assure that you won’t burn your retinas.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jan 17, 2012 10:03 AM PST reply actions 16 recs
This is sound advice.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
by Aykis16 on Jan 17, 2012 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
DO NOT READ ABOUT KINGS WINGS IF
Especially for the pregnant women. This is no way to bring a child into this world.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 17, 2012 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 9 recs
I heard Stephen King's going to read it to get some ideas for his next novel
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
by otis29 on Jan 17, 2012 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 6 recs
Anything about wings
makes me think of bloody Hell
35 and 31. I'm calling it now. Reke and Cousins 1-2 in most improved award both All-stars. Jimmer leads rookies in scoring, passing and Ole's. Make 2nd round of playoffs and Salmons is not here by seasons end.
Just for shits, I went out this morning and shot 30 NBA three pointers at the gym.
I made 12. Salmons sucks so bad.
by VenomySnicket on Jan 17, 2012 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Science!
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 17, 2012 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 6 recs
Nice
but to be fair, I really think you can pretty much cut in half shooting stats of unguarded versus guarded. Peja use to shoot in the 80s unguarded, 40s in real life.
35 and 31. I'm calling it now. Reke and Cousins 1-2 in most improved award both All-stars. Jimmer leads rookies in scoring, passing and Ole's. Make 2nd round of playoffs and Salmons is not here by seasons end.
That means Venomy is still shooting better than Salmons.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
by Aykis16 on Jan 17, 2012 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
That was a given
35 and 31. I'm calling it now. Reke and Cousins 1-2 in most improved award both All-stars. Jimmer leads rookies in scoring, passing and Ole's. Make 2nd round of playoffs and Salmons is not here by seasons end.
And I bet Venomy had a smile on his face while he was doing it
And no chin boobs, most likely.
SIGN HIM ALREADY!
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
by otis29 on Jan 17, 2012 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Amazing. Great work.
I think you highlight some invidual areas for improvement, but also show that there are some team issues that relate to team defense, ball movement and off ball movement.
I am hopeful that Smart is slowly addressing these. It seems like we are playing better team defense and seeing more movement for stretches.
I did find it interesting that people here hail IT as a point guard and Evan’s as NaPG and their A% are 1% point different.
I did find it interesting that people here hail IT as a point guard and Evan’s as NaPG and their A% are 1% point different.
You can’t just assess their pointyness from their individual stats you also need to know how many assists the team as a whole got when each was playing as ball movement leads to assists on the 2nd or 3rd pass and not just the first.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 17, 2012 2:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think both players are hampered by the offense as a whole (lack of system under PW)
But assist % is the number of possessions the player uses that ends in an assist. Right now Evans is at a career low, partially due to the early season struggles and is still identical to IT.
I think both players are capable passers who still tend to be scorers first. Nothing wrong with that. Just interesting.
Yes and IT is doing it in mop up time with mop up players most of the time…I see Isaiah as more of a pass first kind of guy, and honestly i think he sees the floor better then reke and the spacing for passing, not just driving to the basket..And just remember..Assists are based off 2 people, not just the pointy guy
Founder of team Omté Caspeen
It's pretty much a confirmation of what I've been seeing
As I have said when we started Jimmer and Salmons we were playing 3 on 5. If I were coach neither player would see action ina game at the moment unless there was an injury. Aside from Outlaw, Jimmer and Salmons are the worst players on the team and for some reason have been getting ample minutes to prove it.
Hopefully if Smart adjust his rotation for next game these two players will be cheering more than playing. Hopefully.
Salmons is a known quantity
I think you have to give Jimmer minutes to see if he catches up to the speed of the game over time.
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
I'd target him for more like 12
and if he plays well expand it for that game
35 and 31. I'm calling it now. Reke and Cousins 1-2 in most improved award both All-stars. Jimmer leads rookies in scoring, passing and Ole's. Make 2nd round of playoffs and Salmons is not here by seasons end.
I don't think you give Jimmer anything
Why would you “give” Jimmer minutes? Let him earn them in practice. IT has out played Jimmer in every facet of the game and as far as I’m concerned earned the minutes with production. The problem of “giving” Jimmer minutes is that you are taking a more productive player off the court for that 12 minutes and “hoping” Jimmer “catches” on. That is a good way to keep loosing games. I’m tired of seeing our team run like some developemntal league team where we play guys and “hope” they develop or “hope” they snap back to the form they had two years ago (Salmons sucked last year too, which was a big reason why the Bucks did not make the playoffs).
Play guys that hussle and earn minutes and all of us who has watched the team this season know who those players are.
agree with this assessment
I think this team needs a complete change of rotation.
1) Start Donté over Salmons. Heck, I’ll take Garcia starting over Salmons
2) JT ahead of JJ in the rotation
3) IT as the first guard off the bench ahead of Jimmer
by garylicious on Jan 17, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, Synergy! Finally somebody has it.
Okay on to Jimmer
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.85
•P&R Ball Handler (25%): 0.96
What percentage of Pick and Roll situations does Jimmer shoot? Also, what is his shooting percentage because after the first week he was using the P&R a ton (34.5% of the time versus the 25% now) and was shooting 37.5%. Also, what is his turnover % in the pick and roll now (please tell me it has dropped from the dreadful 20%)?
Another interesting thing to use (particularly for point guards I suppose) is NBAStatCube given it helps give you a team’s ORtg/DRtg, TS%, and team shooting numbers when a player is in a game versus out of a game. For instance
Isaiah ThomasORtg: On Court – 94.3; Off Court – 93.2
DRtg: On Court – 107.9; Off Court – 105
TS%: On Court – 48.8%; Off Court – 47.3%
Hot Spots: Corner Three Pointer – On Court 31% (8-26) – Off Court 25% (12-49)
Cold Spots: Mid Range – On Court 31% (18-59) – Off Court 36% (83-232)
Jimmer Freddette
ORtg: On Court – 91.7; Off Court – 95.2
DRtg: On Court – 107.3; Off Court – 104.4
TS%: On Court – 47.1%; Off Court – 48.3%
Hot Spots: Mid Range – On Court 40% (54-136) – Off Court 30% (47-155); Corner Three Pointer – On Court 31% (12-39); Off Court 22% (8-36)
Cold Spots: Above the Break Three – On Court 23% (26-111) – Off Court 28% (27-96)
Although could have put this in the “cold” for Jimmer thought I’d make special mention of the scoring in the paint. Currently the NBA average FG% and attempts in the paint is 54% wtih 406 attempts. Currently while Jimmer has been in the game the Kings have been making 50% of 193 shots versus when he is out it’s 58% of 213 shots. Meanwhile while Isaiah is on the floor the Kings have shot 55% in the paint off of 111 shots while with him off the floor the Kings have made 54% off of 295 shots.
Interesting, those cube stats certainly make a case for some of Jimmer's minutes to shift a bit to IT
Also, I’m confused by your blockquote and following P&R questions, since you quote the defensive stats and then ask about Jimmer’s P&R offense. In any case, that 0.96 P&R Defensive PPP for Jimmer is ugly, and when you match that with IT’s 1.58(!) Spot-up Defensive PPP, I think it really shows how tough it is right now for both of those guys trying to guard the better guards of the league and why having either of them in the Starting Lineup could be a tricky proposition.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 17, 2012 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Also, I’m confused by your blockquote and following P&R questions, since you quote the defensive stats
I just accidentally blockquoted the defensive stats and not the offensive is all. I was still accurate about Jimmer’s offensive P&R stats from the first week of play.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Figured it was probably that, brought it up in case I was missing something.
Wasn’t questioning your accuracy on your own stats, though wondering if that means you had Synergy access for the first week but lost it?
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 17, 2012 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
I'll get back to you on the P&R stats later today.
They’ll be updated from the Minnesota game, so a little different but not much.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
Ok here are the things you wanted re: Jimmer
He’s shot 13 of 38 as the P&R Ball Handler (34.5%). He also turns it over 15.6% of the time as the P&R Ball Handler.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
gotten better in the turnover department
that’s at least a start.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 2:19 PM PST up reply actions
And 6 more shots go in, and he's a 50% shooter
Small sample size is a bitch.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
speaking of bitches
really wanted to a fanshot of this but given the NSFW langage, not quite sure if it is okay to the mods. Would be hilarious in a quote fanpost link though. Really curious how Daulerio will do there.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Curious to see how Craggs will do at Deadspin, as well
He’s been my favorite of their longform, actual reportage style guys (except possibly Leitch, and that’s millennia ago in internet terms). I wonder how much of that will permeate the site, and how it’ll affect their almighty pageviews.
How do You Conclude Tyreke is Playing the Defense of His Career?
Who has he shut down? I don’t recall anyone. Rarely if ever so far has Tyreke appeared inspired defensively. I like his anticipation for steals but a lot of times he looks sluggish, passive and too generous to surrender space on the floor, though since start of season he looks a little slimmer (2-3 pounds lighter). I think you may be putting too much emphasis on P&R defensive.
Let’s put this is in a proper broad context:
The Kings have second worst point differential and opponent eFG% in NBA. If we want to hold the lead guard responsible for how offense runs, and we do, then we should hold him partially responsible for setting a defensive tone too. Tyreke is not playing the best defense of his career, or the Kings would not be at the bottom of these primary benchmarks for team performance.
Smart Era, y'all.
he did as good a job on Kobe as anyone has this season when he was guarding him.
Who else was he supposed to shut down? OJ Mayo? Jarrett Jack?
by VenomySnicket on Jan 17, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Tyreke is not playing the best defense of his career, or the Kings would not be at the bottom of these primary benchmarks for team performance.
I dunno if you’ve witnessed what this team has done so far during Tyreke’s career.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Saying Reke is playing the best defense of his career
is kind of a low threshold at this point
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
That doesn't make his conclusion accurate
Tyreke did great job vs. Hornets and Chris Paul in his rookie year; there was that pick vs. Gilbert Arenas, and games that have been competitive down the stretch in his first two seasons, which have been few do far this year, require a player to focus and exert more energy and effort defensively. Tyreke seems to turn it up on defense only under these circumstances, instead of consistently, and in first and second quarters. To say he is playing the best defense of his career is to be deceived by stats.
Tyreke will impress defensively when he wins individual match-ups versus other top flight guards, harasses them for 40 minutes and forces low shooting %, which he is highly capable of doing, not because he fought through a baseline screen.
Smart Era, y'all.
by bench_blob on Jan 17, 2012 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree
“Compared to what?” is always the best question.
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
As Wally said
Just because he is playing the best D of his career, doesn’t make him a stellar defender or anything. Also his career has been 3 years, one rookie year, one injury plagued. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t playing the best D of his career.
Individually he’s a solid defender, but as you can see from the fact that our guards are having to defend a lot of spot-up shots, they’re getting lost in the team defensive schemes, particularly on bad switches.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
I can see why people get frustrated watching him on defense
There are times he’s exceptional out there, and there are times he gets extremely lazy. Twice last night I watched him just lazily ease down into the paint while his man drifted around to the three point line and he wasn’t even close to getting back.
For him, defense is all about effort.
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
by otis29 on Jan 17, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
He has the tools to be one of the best defenders in the league. Now he just needs the mindset, which he doesn’t have yet.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
I keep checking StR
hoping to find an exciting post about a trade for Andre Miller.
Instead I get a depressing look at how bad our current guards have been.
"DeMarcus pounds, like the hammer. Tyreke slashes, like the sickle.
For the good of the proletariat!" - tomroadrunner
Sec. 214 has it right: Maloofs must go first
No single player could bring much at this point, regardless of position
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Can we just start sending letters to them en masse?
"DeMarcus pounds, like the hammer. Tyreke slashes, like the sickle.
For the good of the proletariat!" - tomroadrunner
Maybe if we all include a dollar with our letter, we can buy them off?
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 17, 2012 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
As I see it, this is the only hope we have in keeping the team in Sacramento, so it has become my hope that it comes to pass:
When the downtown arena plan falls flat on its face, which it most certainly will do, the Maloofs will then re-start efforts to get NBA approval for relocation, because Sacramento has proven that it cannot get it done. The NBA starts considering the request, and gets substantial pushback from Buss and others who cite the negative effects on big market teams, tv contracts, etc, not to mention the (marginal) concessions and accommodations made to small-market teams in the new CBA. As the pressure builds and moving appears likely, Burkle steps in, offers to purchase the Kings, promising to keep them in Sacramento as long as the new arena is constructed in Natomas, adjacent to the current one.
The deal would be contingent on the City of Sacramento excusing the loan owing by the Maloofs and conveying title to the land, the parking lot, and the arena building out there in Natomas. At that point, the NBA agrees, forces the Maloofs to accept a similar deal or walk away, meaning they will be forced to give up control to Burkle, who takes control of the team, continues to use PBP during the planning and construction of new arena, continues (forever) to be entitled to all of the parking revenue out there, all of the concessions, and continues to use the training facility he now also owns.
In order to make the deal more advantageous for himself, Burkle may, if he was interested, obtain development rights (and perhaps ownership) for nearby parcels, so that office buildings, retail, perhaps a hotel, and the like can be built in the area.
I can see very little possibility of having the team remaining here past May, 2012 without something quite similar to this falling into place.
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
If that is the only scenario where you think it is possible the team stays
Then I see why you’re pessimistic.
Personally, I believe an effort with a lot of positive momentum, public support, and mayoral support is the more likely way to keep the team in town. That’s all I’m going to say about that, since this thread has nothing to do with the arena efforts.
Never forget, I'm a complete idiot.
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Author of Inside-Out Game
point well taken about this not being an arena thread. Shouldn’t have said anything here.
I wish I could share in your optimism, but I am obviously a worrier pessimist by comparison.
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
I'm sorry
exciting post about a trade for Andre Miller.
is an oxymoron.
Never forget, I'm a complete idiot.
Follow me on Twitter
Author of Inside-Out Game
by Exhibit G on Jan 17, 2012 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Hahaha, rec'd
"DeMarcus pounds, like the hammer. Tyreke slashes, like the sickle.
For the good of the proletariat!" - tomroadrunner
Different team. Different system.
Miller forcing his way into the lane while 4 guys stand around would be very unproductive. Evans kicking to Miller for a jumper would be like kicking to Hickson for a jumper.
Just don’t see him fitting. Especially when you consider we would have to give up something to entice Denver to trade him.
Looking at the stats the guard play doesn't look so bad
Some good guard play, nothing spectacular. There is a warning message up top about the “wings” if you want to start a conversation about exciting trades. Otherwise you got a long argument to go to convince anyone Andre Miller will make John Salmons, Travis Outlaw, Francisco Garcia or Donte Greene … well ummm make them anything but the horrible they have been.
the point play from IT and Jimmer ain't good
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
15.6 PER from a backup PG isn’t bad either. A team can live with it, especially from a rookie. However, I will put a disclaimer on the IT23 stats. He has had his moments but also at times he’s been a bit of a garbage collector which are mixed in with these stats. He and Jimmer have gotten their minutes at different levels of competition. If IT was starting his stats would be worse, if Jimmer were coming in when the team was down 30 and the opponent now relaxed than Jimmer’s stats would be better.
The stats confirm some things seen visually:
- Tyreke stats appear to give confirmation that he is playing a lot like his rookie year.
- Thorton’s stats look better than I would have expected, but I agree with your assessment that he is being asked to handle the ball more, which hasn’t working out too well.
- Isaiah’s stats seem to bear out what most of us have been seeing, with the most assists on the team. (I can only hope Smart gives him more minutes)
- Jimmer stats seem to bear out, “Ball Don’t Lie.” He hasn’t been playing good basketball, which is what everyone has been witnessing.
What you didn’t include on here is what we had in Beno last year. I know it is this season, but his absence has undoubtedly had an effect on the performance of the guards. Thornton is being asked to handle the ball more, because of Beno’s absence. That hasn’t worked well. Also, I would expect Reke’s overall shooting percentage to be a little higher, if we had a good facilitator on the floor. IT’s numbers suggest he should be on the floor more, to help facilitate and Jimmer should be getting fewer minutes.
Nice job, as always, Akysis. Look forward to the Wings edition.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
I think Thornton is showing exactly why he is 6th man material
Thornton is very good at finding his own shot and carrying the offense for stretches. But he really does get into a scoring zone when he gets the ball. That’s great off the bench, but long-term I would love to see another option next to Evans in the starting lineup.
Still hoping that Jimmer adjusts to the speed of the NBA and can be that person. But that remains to be seen.
I'm all for Thornton being the 6th man, but...
Who do you start in his spot? IT? Jimmer? Cisco?
I would reward Cisco at this point for his good play lately, as well as his ability to move off the ball and hit the 3.
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by Wonderchild on Jan 17, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Agree. For now, I don't think anyone has stepped up enough to warrant it.
Hoping that changes in the somewhat near future. If Jimmer improves like other rookies have during the season, he could start by the end of the year. But too early to say if that will happen.
If not, we may need to pursue other options this offseason.
Future Advanced Stats project
I think that the “guard performance” questions regarding this team are still primarily about “what to do with Tyreke”. Do you think we have enough evidence yet to start looking at where ‘Reke is performing best (on both sides of the ball)? What kind of shots is the team getting with the ’Reke-MT backcourt as opposed to ’Reke-Jimmer and ’Reke-IT? How does Tyreke’s role change on each end when his backcourt mate changes? What about in a “three guard” lineup (‘Reke at the 3)? My eyes saw Isaiah Thomas and Tyreke Evans in Toronto in the backcourt together running the most fluid offense I’ve seen from this team in years (for most of one game). How many minutes have those guys had together outside of that game?
An additional project would be to look at how each guard combination affects the performance of DeMarcus Cousins. In fact, that could very well be the most important question of all. So….yeah. Goodluck. I’ll be waiting.
"If you're going to lead the orchestra, you have to turn your back on the audience." -Geoff Petrie
by AnotherStupidSN on Jan 17, 2012 11:47 AM PST reply actions
I tend to agree with you, ASSN, at least in terms of considering a possibility.
I think we pretty much have a good idea of what Reke can do, based on his rookie season and this season. (I’m not even going to count last season.) I would also like to see Isaiah (PG) and Reke (at the 3) on the floor together, with MT (SG). I think that is worth a shot, with IT being the facilitator for these two guys.
I also like your idea of an additional project, which looks at each guard combination affects DMC. You could do that analysis, ASSN.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
Good questions, but too early
I was taking a look at 82games.com and their 5-man Unit breakdowns. Still seems to be too small of a sample to draw any conclusions at this point. It’s also too early to draw conclusions on pairings since the team is still meshing, only has a couple of games with Coach Smart, and limited practice.
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Other than the 3-back court lineup I don't think the rest is relevant.
This is a bad offensive team. Although ball movement is a problem the main problem is personnel with ball movement being apart of the symptom. The team has three scorers and when you take their best nights combined Demarcus (20pts) + Tyreke (25pts) + Thorton (25pts) its 75 points. The rest of the roster can still struggle to score the remaining 25 points, given teams best three scorers are hardly ever all clicking the same night.
Even with better ball movement who are the guards moving the ball to? JT, JJ, Hayes, Salmons, Greene, Outlaw, Cisco. The offensive returns are marginal in this group. Jimmer has to start playing much better. Put IT23 on the court and you are taking shots away from Reke and Thorton, who are better scorers. Better ball movement still means passing the ball to wing players that cannot hit open shots at NBA level and PFs with very limited offensive skills.
Offensively I’d argue they are getting 90% max production now running ISO with their three top scorers. Until they get scoring talent at other positions ball movement isn’t going to improve the team that much. Also this isn’t a defensive team. As soon as they lost Dally they lost the ability to hold opponents to 90 points and play defensive battle games.
I think that all of the guards would benefit from a total restructuring of the offense. I know that Smart has stated that he wants to make this a running team, but the glaring issues seem to me to arise when they are in the half – court offense. Perhaps it is naive, but I think that if Smart were to strictly enforce a pass first-run without the ball-set screens policy, then the performances each of the front court players would improve.
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 11:59 AM PST reply actions
Low Collective Basketball IQ
I just don’t see many players on this team with high or even decent basketball IQ and court awareness (see Paul, Chris, and Rubio, Ricky, for high end examples of this). The only ones I see who are better than average in that area are: Chuck Hayes (on defense), IT, and glimpses of it in DMC. But you need it in your guards especially. The bulk of the guard play (Tyreke and Thornton) seems utterly lacking in that area. I think Jimmer might have it, but he’s not up to the speed of the NBA game yet.
To look at it another way: Championship teams have several very high IQ players. Lakers had Kobe/Pau/Fisher/Odom. Bulls had MJ, Pippen, Cartwright, Kerr, Ron Harper, and even Rodman. I don’t see the potential for even an average level of basketball IQ with this group, much less championship caliber play from them, ever.
by kinglet on Jan 17, 2012 12:01 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Agree with the first half, not the second
I think our team has a lot of room to grow in BBall IQ. It’s low right now. But it can be coached. I haven’t seen anything from our players to show they cannot learn or don’t have the capacity.
Looking at past champions – guys like Terry, Kobe, Odom, Chandler, Marion, Perkins, Pierce, etc. grew exponentially in their BBall IQ over their careers.
This is where coaching is going to be very important for this team. The talent is there, but knowledge is missing.
Players can grow in IQ, you're right
Sean Marion is your example that stands out in that regard. But I don’t have a lot of hope for this team’s collective IQ the way it stands now. They need an on-court teacher, like a veteran point guard – even a good back up. Beno Udrih, for example…..
Agree they need coaching - be it a good coach & or veteran leadership
Think Perkins fits as one of your examples of the latter. Played stupid, stupid basketball up until the Big 3 arrived. Then learned from vets and became a much smarter player.
Not sure Beno qualified as a high IQ player though.
For the Bucks he showed up to camp out of shape and has played abysmally. Not trying to defend the trade, as Salmons has been horrific, but I feel like people are quick to romanticize Beno when he’s a shoot first combo guard who play zero defense. I really appreciate the effort he gave us the last two seasons and the strides he made here, but he’s absolutely not what this team needs.
Poor Jimmer
He was such a volume shooter in college, now he doesnt know when to shoot and when not to. I think he’s too nice and he is just trying not to ruffle feathers a bit. It feels like he doesn’t get any love from the other players. I wonder if they like him or are annoyed with the marketing and hype that has surrounded him. I don’t think it helps his cause with his mates if he has his own section in the team store so to speak.
And it also seems like this team never practices, they look so uncomfortable with each other. With the lockout and hardly any practice time with a compacted season, it will be an uphill battle.
Bottom line, he’s a shooter, and if he makes a couple more shots a game, then he’s ok, but right not, he’s not, and so he stinks.
by dinnertim on Jan 17, 2012 12:30 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Jimmer would have been better in New York
The Knicks would have been perfect for Jimmer because he would be handling the ball 90% of the time. He would have the greenlight to shoot or dump the ball to Amarie or Carmelo.
The Kings don’t know what they want to be and Jimmer is passing up open shots. Maybe Jimmer is just doing what Coach Smart wants him to do when he’s on the floor. He’s more productive on the floor now and if he was shooting better, he would be doing great. His shot is way off and he’s open on some of these 3 pointers.
by Polomontana on Jan 17, 2012 12:44 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree we handed him a little too much responsiblity too soon
Tried to make him a primary facilitator. But he also just needs to adjust to the speed of the game. That’s not uncommon for rookies, especially those that rely on craftiness and intelligence over athleticism (think Curry, Harden, Turner, etc.).
It’s just one game, but I did like what I saw from Jimmer more in the MN game. Hopefully he starts to adjust and plays more instinctively. We really need him to help fill our shooting void and spread the floor.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 17, 2012 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm sorry but
if one wants to claim Jimmer is having a difficult time here adjusting … come on now, this about this for 3 seconds.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 1:31 PM PST up reply actions
*think about this for 3 seconds
and I will follow my own advice and perhaps proofread for 3 seconds :)
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 1:31 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure I understand the overall point here Wally.
What am I supposed to be thinking about? Not challenging you, just not sure where you are going with this.
I think he's saying New York wouldn't exactly be a panacea to what ails Jimmer
And that it presents it’s own unique challenges.
Don’t be upset though, I’ve become fluent in wallyese.
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
by otis29 on Jan 17, 2012 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think he's saying New York wouldn't exactly be a panacea to what ails Jimmer
for sure, NY fans are not the sweethearts that Sac fans are.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 17, 2012 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
Really...
With him jacking up 20 shots per game instead of Shumpert?? No question.
However on the other side of the ball, Shumpert is beyond good.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jan 17, 2012 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Confidence
Jimmer has lost confidence. He has no rhythm. His teammates have no interest in seeing him do well. But don’t think for a minute he can’t shoot, he can, he’s lethal which only indicates the pain he must be in playing with this awful group of selfish jealous players.
by bankers hours on Jan 17, 2012 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
Weak Sauce
Every great player takes ownership. If it is truly everyone else’s fault, then he is not the player that you perceive him to be. The great players find a way.
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by section214 on Jan 17, 2012 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
come on
this is getting ridiculous
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The Weakness of Isaiah Thomas
I think Thomas is great and he should get more minutes but Rubio would have destroyed him.
When they played Dallas, they kept isolating Delonte West playing against Isaiah. That’s the problem. There’s a lot of big, fast guards in the NBA the Thomas will have problems with and when he was driving to the hole on Dallas he was running into to trees and losing the ball.
I don’t think that a 5’7" guard can ever be a starter in the NBA.
by ExPFCWintergreen on Jan 17, 2012 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
Then you don’t know what you are talking about ..
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/boguemu01.html
And he was 5’3"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/webbsp01.html
5’6"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/boykiea01.html
5’5" granted He is not a starter- But does hold record for most points in 1 OT period at 15
Founder of team Omté Caspeen
Curious what Synergy shows
When they played Dallas, they kept isolating Delonte West playing against Isaiah.
I didn’t watch the game but according to popcornmachine Delonte and Isiah were both on the court at the same time for a fearsome 4 minutes and 41 seconds in the second quarter. Given Synergy shows every possession I am wondering how accurate this is.
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
I think you're being pretty generous with Thomas
He has the highest t/o ration of any of our guards and he is shooting 33% from the 3. I don’t know that I will call that starting PG stats. he just looks amazing compared to Jimmer’s lousy numbers. And despite his speed, his defense is week. At this point, I’d rather have Beno starting than either IT or Jimmer.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 17, 2012 2:56 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Everybody would.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jan 17, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, but actually it hasn't really been
And despite his speed, his defense is week.
At least not to this point.
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
I don't know where I said that he should be starting at PG
And yes, of course I’d rather have Beno starting over IT or Jimmer. But we don’t have Beno anymore.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
One of the best back-up PG's in the NBA
Sounds like you are pretty high on the guy. Maybe I read too much into your comments, and maybe I’m combining it with TZ’s piece on player movement where moving Evans to SF brings in IT at the PG. But there seems to to be a lot f people wanting IT to at least play many more PG minutes and possibly start. I just don’t see that with his numbers. I see a high energy guy who comes in off the bench for 10-15 minutes per game and does his thing. The fact that he has a higher t/o ratio than Evans,Jimmer, and Thornton (none of which are known as great ball handlers) seems to have been glossed over with your statement,, “he also turns it over a tad much.”
Right now the best PG we have on the floor is Evans and that is a really bad thing in my opinion. I don’t see IT as the answer.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
Oops
Statistically, Isaiah is one of the best backup guards in the NBA right now.
Forgot a word.
I do agree with you that he’s better suited as a bench player, and will most likely suffer (as do all rookies) when the league starts to figure him out. Whether he has the ability to expand his game and stay a viable rotation player remains to be seen.
"I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!" - Michael Scott
I'm not hating on him at all
I think he was a great pick for where we got him. And he is a lot of fun to watch. I just think he looks amazing to a lot of people because Jimmer is sucking so bad right now.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
I am high on Isaiah
I’m also still high on Jimmer. I just think Isaiah has earned the right to more minutes than Jimmer at this point.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
Agreed
But that’s kind of my point. Compared to Jimmer lately, he looks great. But compared to Jimmer lately, almost anyone looks great.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
I'm not exactly sure what we're arguing about haha.
Author of NBA Mashups. Follow me on Twitter here.
I take it to mean what people are saying about the SF
no one is actually winning the right to start. They are just the lesser of two evils. Right now people want Garcia or Donte to start over Salmons. But if you had to really bet who would work out best in the long run, you’d have to go with Salmons based on past history.
It’s similar with the PG, in that Jimmer has played poorly so IT gets the nod for not playing as poorly. But, based on their college careers and placement in the draft, the odds are that Jimmer would be better in the long run.
So, the question comes out to, are we in it for the long run, or do we have to win now.
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Thanks
That’s exactly what I was trying to say, but not nearly as concisely.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
So, the question comes out to, are we in it for the long run, or do we have to win now.
It doesn’t have to be one or the other, the changes will come at their own pace. If guys continue to outplay salmons the floor time will adjust, as jimmer learns to play at NBA speed his time will increase. Smart has been around long enough to know these things take the time they take.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 19, 2012 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
Jimmer
I’m praying that the Kings trade Jimmer to NY or somewhere else where the other players will actually try and have him fit in. This is a young team void of leadership and character. I’ve seen numerous times Jimmer is wide open for three’s and he’s intertionally avoided. You can stick all the stats you know where. Jimmer’s problem is a jealousy from young teammates that have absolutely no interest in having him do well. He’ll never do well with this dysfunctional group. I’m praying he does poorly and the Kings trade him and get out of this hell hole he’s in. Imagine the Kings coaching staff can’t figure a way to have the concensus player of the year contribute, pathetic. The next time Jimmer’s on the floor with Evans and Thornton see how many times they look for Jimmer to get his shot, the answer is NEVER. Until the Kings develop a better attitude they’ll always be losers. Watching Cousins, Thornton, and Evans hog the ball and makes me sick. This is the worst passing team I’ve ever ever seen.
This is baloney. Jimmer is his own problem
I’m not worried about him, because the offense has been inefficient and rookie’s often take time to adjust to the league.
But there is no conspiracy. No one is ignoring Jimmer. Right now he needs to move better without the basketball. Play more instinctively and take advantage of the opportunities he is getting. That’s on him.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 17, 2012 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm praying you decide to stop commenting
this is over the top ridiculous nonsense
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The sad thing is
that I’m almost praying for Fredette to get traded, too. And that’s a shame, because I think that he can be a solid contributor in the league (I stand by my original comparison to J.J. Redick). But all of this Jimmer jock riding has worn thin…and through.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Jan 17, 2012 6:45 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I like Jimmer
but his fans suck donkey balls
by wallywagon11 on Jan 17, 2012 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
hahaha
The biggest problem that Jimmer’s fans have is that they come from watching a fluid, well-defined basketball scheme. I think most Kings fans have become jaded to the street ball they have going on in SacTown.
Really? BYU's offense was pretty much all Jimmer, not a fluid machine at all
I think some Jimmer fans expected him to come into the pros and quickly become an impact player. Right now he’s going through normal rookie struggles, but I think for some of his fans with unrealistic expectations they are looking for an excuse to explain why he isn’t dominating from day 1.
Our offensive system is a mess and he is a rookie who had 0 summer league and a short training camp. Both the Jimmer lovers and haters need to take a deep breath and revisit this in another two months.
Yeah, really
I am in no way expecting Jimmer to come in and dominate the way he did in college ball from Day 1. All I was saying is that the problem many “Jimmer fans” (read: BYU Fans) have is that they generally watch 1-2 games a week of Dave Rose’s very efficient offensive machine – Yes, outside of Jimmer there is still life in our program, and then they turn on the Kings and it’s like watching Pick-up ball at Gold’s Gym.
Personally, I am disgusted by the fact that so many people here are throwing him under the bus (Isaiah Thomas…REALLY?). Jimmer has, and always will be like the fine wine of basketball, he’ll take time and as he does he’ll learn and get better and better. It’s the same as with him in college.
by herehere on Jan 18, 2012 8:24 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m praying that the Kings trade Jimmer to NY
I don’t think god rules NY city, that’s the devil’s territory. he’ll probably hafta settle for okla or indiana.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 17, 2012 8:51 PM PST up reply actions
I am still pining for Brandon Knight.
Jimmer will get better but he’s another not really a point guard. IT I think is the best the Kings have but he’s only 5’7’. Petrie keeps trying to build the 2002 Kings with passing big men but I don’t see it with Chuck Hayes. Brandon Knight is smart and works hard plus has plus size which keeps Tyreke’s big guard advantage. He will keep getting better. Passing makes everyone look better. Petrie too into exotics.
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by bringbackbuddytrees on Jan 17, 2012 5:39 PM PST reply actions
Brandon Knight a real PG?
Do you get that from his 10.6 FGA/game or his 3.0 assists to 3.1 turnovers per game?
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