Advanced Stats: Looking At Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette And Kings' Guards

Statistics are a valuable tool when analyzing how a player is performing on the court, but at their most basic, statistics don't tell the whole story. Advanced Statistics help broaden the narrative a bit and provide a more accurate reading of how a player is performing on the court. Ideally when analyzing a players play, you don't want to use just statistics or just your eyes, but a combination of both.

As Kings fans, we've watched almost every game this team has played. Most of us have an idea of what our players do well and what they don't. In this post, I'm going to go more in-depth by providing some complementary advanced statistics to analyze our players. This first post is on the guards, with posts on the wings and the bigs coming Wednesday and Thursday respectively. I'll be doing these analyses approximately once a month, so that we can track our teams' progression and regression.

I will be using several sources for my analysis. First, I'll be using the Advanced Statistics found on Basketball-Reference (PER, TS%, AST%, etc.). I will also be using Synergy Sports Technology's data to give a more in-depth look at how our players perform each possession, both offensively and defensively. Synergy Sports uses PPP (Points Per Possession) to track individual players. They track individual play types on both ends of the court and I will be provding samples of each players major play types. Finally, I'll be using HoopData's shot location statistics to see how our players shoot from certain locations.

The following statistics were compiled as of January 16th, 2012, before the Minnesota game. If you would like some explanations of the following statistics, Basketball-Reference has explanations here.

Tyreke Evans

PER: 18.0

TS%: .514

ORB%: 2.0

DRB%: 12.1%

AST%: 20.7%

STL%: 2.2%

BLK%: 1.1%

TOV%: 13.9%

USG%: 25.0

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.84

  • Isolation (27.6%): 0.81
  • Transition (23.3%): 1.15
  • P&R Ball Handler (17.2%): 0.5

Shot Locations

  • At Rim: 4.5 FGM / 6.9 FGA (65.1%)
  • 3-9 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 1.9 FGA (11.1%)
  • 10-15 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.4 FGA (20.0%)
  • 16-23 Feet: 1.3 FGM / 3.8 FGA (35.0%)
  • Threes: 0.5 FGM / 2.2 FGA (22.7%)
  • Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.45

Overall Defensive PPP: 0.81

  • P&R Ball Handler (29%): 0.62
  • Spot-Up (26.9%): 1.08
  • Off Screen (15.9%): 0.78
  • Isolation (14.5%): 0.62

Analysis:

Tyreke is playing similarly to his rookie year, with some deviations. He's still scoring inefficiently for a high usage player, posting a poor True Shooting percentage. As Synergy denotes, the majority of his possessions come in Isolation, and he's not scoring at a high rate there. He is scoring very well in transition, which isn't any surprise. Tyreke is once again attacking the rim like a mad man, and he's converting at the highest clip of his career, while also getting to the line a bunch. Unfortunately, he also takes way too many jumpers for having such a poor percentage, although his percentage from 16-23 feet is a career high. Tyreke also isn't assisting on as many buckets this year, but that's a team problem, combining poor ball movement with horrendous shooting. I suspect the next time I do this, that Assist Rate will be more in line with what we've seen in the past.

Defensively, Tyreke is playing the best ball of his career, and it is in part because he has finally learned how to deal with screens a little better. The majority of his time on defense is spent guarding the Pick and Roll ball handler, and he only allows 0.62 points per possession. He also does well guarding an opponent coming off a screen, and is killer in Isolation. He needs to do a better job of closing out on spot-up shooters however, as he's getting killed there, with that being a major part of his defensive possessions. That speaks to Sacramento's poor team defense.

Marcus Thornton

PER: 16.8

TS%: .528

ORB%: 4.5%

DRB%: 7.0%

AST%: 7.9%

STL%: 2.3%

BLK%: 0.2%

TOV%: 10.4%

USG%: 23.4%

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.92

  • P&R Ball Handler (26.3%): 0.89
  • Spot-Up (21.5%): 1.00
  • Transition (20.5%): 1.52
  • Isolation (13.2%): 0.52

Shot Locations

  • At Rim: 2.0 FGM / 3.6 FGA (56.3%)
  • 3-9 Feet: 1.1 FGM / 2.8 FGA (40%)
  • 10-15 Feet: 0.4 FGM / 1.2 FGA (36.4%)
  • 16-23 Feet: 1.1 FGM / 2.6 FGA (43.0%)
  • Threes: 2.1 FGM / 5.7 FGA (36.8%)
  • Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.23

Overall Defensive PPP: 0.87

  • P&R Ball Handler (40%): 0.79
  • Spot-Up (33.3%): 0.97

Analysis:

Marcus is playing very differently from last year, where most of his offensive possessions came from Isolation plays. This year he has been asked to handle the ball more, and he hasn't been doing a great job of it. His assist rate is the lowest of his career, and he's also turning it over more. Offensively, Marcus likes to shoot from anywhere, but particularly from three, where he's hitting a good percentage but not a great percentage. Marcus has scored the best on Spot-up and transition opportunities, another sign that this team needs to run more and stagnate less. Marcus also isn't getting to the line very much for a guy who is aggressive as he is, which is in line with his career.

Defensively, he's done a good job on guarding the Pick and Roll Ball handler, but has done poorly in other areas. Again, on spot-up shots, that's a team defense thing.

Overall, Marcus is in a bit of a slump right now, and we know he can and has played better. He's young and this is a weird season, so I'm not too worried.

Jimmer Fredette

PER: 8.4

TS%: .440

ORB%: 3.2

DRB%: 4.4

AST%: 16.6

STL%: 1.3

BLK%: 0.0

TOV%: 16.1

USG%: 19.1

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.75

  • P&R Ball Handler (30.6%): 0.68
  • Spot-Up (28.4%): 0.92
  • Isolation (12.7%): 0.76

Shot Locations

  • At Rim: 0.6 FGM / 1.1 FGA (53.8%)
  • 3-9 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 0.8 FGA (33.3%)
  • 10-15 Feet: 0.4 FGM / 1.3 FGA (31.3%)
  • 16-23 Feet: 0.6 FGM / 1.4 FGA (41.0%)
  • Threes: 1.2 FGM / 3.8 FGA (31.6%)
  • Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.13

Overall Defensive PPP: 0.85

  • P&R Ball Handler (25%): 0.96
  • Isolation (16.7%): 0.56
  • Off Screen: (12.5%): 1.08
  • Hand Off (11.5%): 1.09

Analysis:

There's no two ways about; Jimmer is playing terrible basketball right now. He's shooting the worst out of any of our guards despite supposedly being the best shooter in the past draft. He's assisting almost as much as he's turning it over, and he barely gets to the line at all. Right now about the only thing he's doing well offensively is as a spot-up shooter, and even there he's not doing amazing or anything.

Defensively he's better than expected. He has trouble fighting through screens, but in isolation possessions, he does a good job staying in front of his man and getting a hand in his opponent's face.

All rookies have to adapt to the NBA, and Jimmer is currently experiencing a rough learning curve on a team with terrible offensive cohesion. Hopefully the shots begin to fall for Jimmer soon, because right now all the playing time he's getting is hardly justified.

Isaiah Thomas

PER: 15.6

TS%: .504

ORB%: 2.3

DRB%: 9.1

AST%: 21.9

STL%: 2.3

BLK%: 0.8

TOV%: 17.0

USG%: 23.5

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.85

  • P&R Ball Handler (33.3%): 0.9
  • Spot-Up (24.7%): 0.78
  • Isolation (20.4%): 0.58

Shot Locations

  • At Rim: 0.6 FGM / 1.3 FGA (46.7%)
  • 3-9 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 0.4 FGA (40%)
  • 10-15 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.3 FGA (25.0%)
  • 16-23 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 0.7 FGA (38.0%)
  • Threes: 0.8 FGM / 2.3 FGA (33.3%)
  • Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.47

Overall Defensive PPP: 0.83

  • Isolation (25%): 0.38
  • P&R Ball Handler (32.8%): 0.71
  • Spot-Up (18.8%): 1.58

Analysis:

Statistically, Isaiah is one of the best backup guards in the NBA right now. He's no great shakes offensively, where his height hurts him, but he's very aggressive and gets to the line a bunch. He's assisting at the highest rate on the team, although he also turns it over a tad much. He's a great rebounder for a guy his size, which helps the team get its offense going early.

Defensively he's very effective guarding individual players, but has a problem closing out on shooters, especially due to his height. That will always be a problem, but if the team defense were better, he'd get more help in that area.

Isaiah is showing a lot of promise as a lead guard in the NBA, perhaps not as a starter, but definitely as a change of pace, energy guy off the bench.

Coming Tomorrow: The Wings

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