Advanced Stats: Sacramento's Wings Are Barely Functional

Yesterday we took a look at our guards' advanced statistics, and today it is the wings turn. Sacramento has received very little quality production from its wings so far this season, and as you probably guessed, the stats are going to back it up. A lot of the Kings struggles on offense can be attached to the lack of production from the wing position. That is because a major part of the Kings offensive gameplan is to draw attention in the middle and then kick it out to a wing for an open shot. The unfortunate part of this for Sacramento is that every single one of their wings is in a shooting slump right now. Spot-Up shots are usually high percentage shots (since they're mostly wide open), but the Kings are shooting a league worst 29.5% in those situations. Nearly 40% of those spot-up opportunities have gone to the four wings listed in this post.

If you have a heart condition, do not read the rest of this post. It's for your own good.

I will be using several sources for my analysis. First, I'll be using the Advanced Statistics found on Basketball-Reference (PER, TS%, AST%, etc.). I will also be using Synergy Sports Technology's data to give a more in-depth look at how our players perform each possession, both offensively and defensively. Synergy Sports uses PPP (Points Per Possession) to track individual players. They track individual play types on both ends of the court and I will be provding samples of each players major play types. Finally, I'll be using HoopData's shot location statistics to see how our players shoot from certain locations.

The following statistics were compiled as of January 17th, 2012. If you would like some explanations of the following statistics, Basketball-Reference has explanations here.

John Salmons

PER: 7.8

TS%: .412

ORB%: 2.0

DRB%: 12.2

AST%: 10.9

STL%: 2.0

BLK%: 0.4

TOV%: 10.9

USG%: 15.5

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.73

• Spot-Up (28.8%): 0.71
• Isolation (26.7%): 0.69
• Transition (11.6%): 0.88
• P&R Ball Handler (11%): 1.13

Shot Locations

• At Rim: 1.0 FGM / 1.1 FGA (93.3%)
• 3-9 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.9 FGA (7.7%)
• 10-15 Feet: 0.6 FGM / 1.4 FGA (45.0%)
• 16-23 Feet: 0.9 FGM / 2.3 FGA (38.0%)
• Threes: 0.6 FGM / 3.1 FGA (18.2%)
• Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.13

Overall Defensive PPP: 1.06

• Spot-Up (39.4%): 1.24
• Isolation (18.3%): 0.95
• P&R Ball Handler (14.4%): 0.67
• Post-Up (13.5%): 1.14
• Off Screen (10.6%): 1.00

Analysis:

You don't need these statistics to tell you that John Salmons is playing the worst basketball of his career. Almost all of his numbers are career lows, and his shooting has been especially atrocious. Offensively he's been inefficient almost everywhere, although he's done alright in limited opportunities as the P&R Ball Handler. Most of John's shots however come from spotting up, a trend you'll notice in this post. John stands out among the other wings for how many of his possessions involve Isolations, and he scores at a low rate from them. John also isn't drawing fouls at near the rate that he's used to for his career, with his Free Throw rate more than halved.

Defensively, he's also been terrible (another trend with our wings), allowing over a point a possession. The Spot-Up number is huge, and he's also struggling guarding players in Isolation situations and when being posted up. There is some issue with John's size (he's more of a two guard and is asked to guard bigger and stronger threes) as well as with the Kings' very poor team defense.

For the current Kings offense to work, they need to get some production from their wings, and John Salmons gets the majority of the wing minutes. So far, Salmons has been a net negative.

Francisco Garcia

PER: 10.2

TS%: .465

ORB%: 0.6

DRB%: 11.7

AST%: 7.6

STL%: 2.0

BLK%: 2.3

TOV%: 6.4

USG%: 13.1

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.87

• Spot-Up (52.2%): 0.71
• Transition (17.4%): 1.00
• Hand Off (10.9%): 0.8

Shot Locations

• At Rim: 0.5 FGM / 0.5 FGA (100%)
• 3-9 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.1 FGA (100%)
• 10-15 Feet: 0.0 FGM / 0.2 FGA (0%)
• 16-23 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 0.9 FGA (33.0%)
• Threes: 0.6 FGM / 2.4 FGA (25.0%)
• Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.17

Overall Defensive PPP: 1.25

• Spot-Up (32.5%): 1.92
• P&R Ball Handler (20%): 0.88
• Isolation (15%): 1.17
• Off Screen (12.5%): 1.2

Analysis:

Cisco is also in a shooting slump. He gets most of his opportunities in Spot-Up situations, and he hasn't been converting. He's only 5 for 20 from three in those situations, and 6 for 24 from three overall, not good for someone who is supposed to be a knockdown shooter.

Cisco is a phenomenal weakside shot blocker for someone his size, but that's about the only thing he is doing well on defense this year. Small Sample Size hurts Cisco here, as opponents have made 9 of 11 spot-up shots against Cisco, which results in almost 2 PPP against in those situations. Still, Cisco isn't showing good defensive PPP in almost any category. Like John, he struggles guarding bigger SFs since he's more of a two guard.

Donté Greene

PER: 10.8

TS%: .466

ORB%: 3.1

DRB%: 22.0

AST%: 2.8

STL%: 0.8

BLK%: 2.2

TOV%: 9.0

USG%: 18.5

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.84

• Spot-Up (42.9%): 0.96
• Transition (17.9%): 1.1
• Isolation (8.9%): 0.8

Shot Locations

• At Rim: 0.7 FGM / 1.1 FGA (66.7%)
• 3-9 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 0.4 FGA (50%)
• 10-15 Feet: 0.2 FGM / 0.3 FGA (66.7%)
• 16-23 Feet: 0.1 FGM / 0.5 FGA (20.0%)
• Threes: 0.5 FGM / 2.0 FGA (22.7%)
• Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.22

Overall Defensive PPP: 1.16

• Post-Up (31.8%): 1.21
• Isolation (22.7%): 1.4
• P&R Roll Man (18.2%): 0.75
• Spot-Up (13.6%): 1.33

Analysis:

Donté has steadily upped his playing time this year, from nearly none in Paul Westphal's time, to a rotation player under Keith Smart. He's still struggling with his outside shot, but he's been very good from 15 feet in. One thing Donté has really improved on is his defensive rebounding, almost doubling the rate at which he grabs them. Obviously this jump is Small Sample Size Institute approved, but just from watching the games it does seem like he is making a concerted effort on the glass.

Defensively his numbers aren't as good as you would expect, and like with Cisco and Salmons, I believe it is because of mismatches due to size and strength. Donté has played a lot of minutes at the 4 this year, and while he's tall and long enough to play the position, he's not strong enough. Most of his defensive possessions are post-ups, and he allows a big number here. He's also not done well in Isolation situations, although it should be noted that he is routinely brought in to guard some of the best SFs in the game, which can skew those numbers a bit.

Travis Outlaw

PER: 4.1

TS%: .309

ORB%: 3.6

DRB%: 10.8

AST%: 2.4

STL%: 1.5

BLK%: 2.6

TOV%: 7.2

USG%: 17.5

Overall Offensive PPP: 0.58

• Spot-Up (49.1%): 0.59
• Isolation (18.2%): 1

Shot Locations

• At Rim: 0.2 FGM / 0.5 FGA (40%)
• 3-9 Feet: 0.4 FGM / 0.5 FGA (66.7%)
• 10-15 Feet: 0.0 FGM / 0.4 FGA (0%)
• 16-23 Feet: 0.3 FGM / 1.2 FGA (23.0%)
• Threes: 0.2 FGM / 1.5 FGA (11.8%)
• Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA): 0.28

Overall Defensive PPP: 0.89

• Spot-Up (36.8%): 0.71
• Post-Up (18.4%): 1.29
• Isolation (18.4%): 0.57
• Off Screen (13.2%): 1.8

Analysis:

There is not a word in the English Dictionary to properly describe just how awful Travis Outlaw has been offensively. He's shooting 23.9% overall from the field, and less than half that from three point range. Almost half of his shots have come in Spot-Up opportunities and he's converting them at a really low rate. Those are essentially wide open shots he's missing. He is coming off of a broken hand injury, so that could have something to do with it, but he also shot very poorly in New Jersey all last year.

Defensively, he's statistically been our best defensive wing, mainly because the guys he's guarded in Spot-Up opportunities have missed their shots more often than the other wings. Part of that is luck, although Outlaw does have great length and athleticism, which allows him to recover and contest more quickly. He's been worse on Post-Ups, where like Greene, he doesn't have the strength to really guard fours, even though he's asked to sometimes.

Coming Tomorrow: The Bigs