How improbable was a Sacramento Kings win on the road against the San Antonio Spurs?

Entering the game, the Spurs were 9-0 at home with an average points margin of +13.3. The Spurs had been needing late heroics of late, with two overtime wins at the AT&T within the past week. But that margin is massive and daunting.

The Kings came in 1-7 on the road with an average points margin of -19 against a mixed but generally tough schedule. If the Kings held to their normal road performance and the Spurs held to their normal home performance, we would expect the Kings to ... lose by 32. Seems about right based on that last road trip, no?

Instead, the Kings won by a bucket 88-86, relying on solid defense and that sizzling first quarter of offense to pull out the victory. The Kings' offense is still very much a work in progress, as the second and fourth quarters were bad on that end and the stellar assist rate from the first fell apart almost instantly in the second. (The Kings finished with 16 assists on 36 makes, about par for the course for Sacramento.)

But on the road? A victory like that is incredibly commendable for this team. For the Kings, no victory should be taken for granted, and to reverse fortunes against a good team away from Sacramento is a real highlight.