How Bad Are the Kings Really Doing This Year?
by SavageBeast on Jan 26, 2012 5:53 PM PST
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PrintOkay, I'm going to keep this pretty short. Mostly because it's hard to argue with what people think they see. And what we are seeing from the Kings right now is pretty pathetic. 27th in offensive rating. 29th in defensive rating. 24th in PPG. Last in opponent's points per game. It is definitely ugly.
Now you could argue that we are a very young team, that we had a coaching change, that we've had our starting center out for a good chunk of the season. All very good points, and I think most would agree they have had some impact. But let's step past all that for a moment and look at wins and loses. How many games should we have won to this point compared to how many we have actually won?
It turns out this is a pretty easy number to figure out. Let's start by looking at our winning percentage last season. Okay, close your eyes, this is going to bring back painful memories. Last year we finished with a dismal .293 winning percentage. We had to improve over that, right? Right! But by how much? Would a ten percent improvement be good enough? Twenty? What if we improved by 25%? Would that make us feel a little better about life? I'll tell you what, let's go for broke here. Let's improve by a whopping 30%. Any company that improved it's performance by 30% would be doing awesome.
So, in order to accomplish that, we have to play .380 ball. Some of you are rushing off to check the stats right now. Don't bother. We aren't there. We're at a measly .316. But what if we were to compare the .380 we are shooting for with the winning percentages of the teams we have faced so far. Forget about road/home. Forget about injuries. Forget about youth. Bottom line, let's compare the winning percentage of the teams we have faced so far to our goal of .380. How many games should we have won? Ten? Eight?
The actual number is 2. So far, we have played exactly two teams with a record below .380. And one of those team was on the road where they should have an advantage. Realistically, we should be looking at a team with one or two wins at best. This is not my opinion, this is based on strength of schedule.
And yet we have won six games. Four more than we should have. With struggling shooters, with injured players, facing a nasty home road schedule, we are doing better than we have any right to expect. I won't say this will continue if we don't get our act together. But I will say that the glass is not nearly as empty as it looks. If we can keep improving and working, if some players get their numbers even back up to normal, the schedule will be much kinder to us in the second half.
So don't throw away those season tickets just yet. The light at the end of the tunnel might not be a train.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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I see those stats...
I see those stats and think, “Damn, they’ve been incredibly lucky to get any wins.”
Strength of schedule is the one silver lining so far, and the numerous injuries the Kings have suffered through haven’t made things easier.
Wasn't going to post this on it's own, but seems to fit here
No excuse for how we have been playing, but it seemed we had a very hard schedule, so I looked at some of the numbers and:
NBA Home Win Percentage: 60%
NBA Road Win Percentage: 40%
Home Win % of Kings’ Road Opponents: 73%
Road Win % of Kings’ Home Opponents: 50%
Home Win % of Kings’ Road Opponents (under Smart): 70%
Road Win % of Kings’ Home Opponents (under Smart): 56%
And via ESPN’s Expanded Standings:
Kings’ Record Against Under .500 teams: 3-2
Kings’ Record Against Over .500 teams: 3-11
This isn’t an excuse for some of the pathetic blow outs. But should give some contest to the season. The team has very real issues (no NBA caliber SF, youth, “emerging” BBall IQ, 2 coaches), which have been exacerbated by what is a legitimately brutal schedule so far. Poor Smart hasn’t exactly gotten many cupcake teams to let the Kings practice new concepts against. If he’s lucky he’s gotten one practice and then the team’s had to execute against the league’s best teams. The results…… vomit inducing.
It doesn’t get any easier Saturday playing at Utah (8-3 at home), but February has more winnable road games and March/April bring more home games. If Smart can keep coaching and the team can make legitimate strides, they will have a chance to finish the season strong.
I agree with SB that the team is not as bad as they have been playing. That’s not high praise. That’s not even a complement. But let’s also not hit the self-destruct button just yet.
by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 26, 2012 7:40 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
Exactly
No excuses for how bad we are getting beat. But at least putting the numbers into context. We are playing teams we should lose to. That also helps explain some of the numbers. We have played 14 games against over .500 teams, while Utah has played 9 and Philly has played 6. And we actually have a better record against .500 teams than eight other teams. It’s actually quite likely that as our schedule eases off, our numbers will improve on both sides of the ball.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
Thanks for posting the numbers
I knew our early-season schedule was brutal, but all of a sudden I feel a lot better about only having 6 wins.
The blowouts suck, but the teams that are blowing us out are generally teams that we should be losing to anyway. Not that that’s an excuse. The only blowout loss that I thought going into the game that we should’ve won was at home versus the Amare-less Knicks. If you want to count any double-digit loss as a blowout, then I would say add Houston and Minnesota to that list as well.
Not trying to make excuses, just trying to help talk people down from ledges.
The devil is dryhumping the details - Tom Ziller
This is basically how I feel
Nothing to celebrate. Trying to feel good about getting blown out would be pure spin.
However, this season has been a sort of a Murphy’s Law year so far. Assuming we have the talent I think we do and Smart is a decent coach, things should start getting much more competitive in February.
Even more so if Petrie still has a pulse and can get us a halfway competent SF and/or another veteran who can be a good influence/mentor. Kind of an anti-Salmons.
It doesn't look good
Even more so if Petrie still has a pulse and can get us a halfway competent SF and/or another veteran who can be a good influence/mentor. Kind of an anti-Salmons.
None of the current SF’s have any trade value, unless you’re working them into a much bigger deal. And the recall of Honeycutt indicates that the team is desperately hoping he’ll be able to shore up that position down the road.
Can you imagine if they picked up another SF? You’d have “anonymous SF” starting with Garcia/Salmons/Outlaw/Honeycutt coming off the bench? That’s a ridiculous amount of payroll outlay to try to fill one position on the floor.
Sacramento Kings - helping feed NBA fans across the country since 2011
Well, teh alternative is keep sucking
Salmons can at least be amnestied at season’s end. If he shows a pulse, a contender may even bid on him for 1-2 mil, shaving off some of the Maloof’s financial liability.
Garcia isn’t terrible for a bench player. It’s easy to be frustrated with him now since he simply can’t fill the starting void we have. But a semi-competent, if inconsistent player who can hit some 3s and have the occasional hot night isn’t bad off the bench until Honeycut is ready.
I'm fighting the idea of reality here
It’s so hard for me to fathom the Kings using the amnesty provision, although I suppose the fact that it would count towards the cap minimum offers a glimmer of hope.
And I agree on Garcia. I’m fine with him getting the majority of the minutes at the 3 until they figure out what they have in Honeycutt.
Sacramento Kings - helping feed NBA fans across the country since 2011
Yeah, well, that's a different depressing scenario
I don’t imagine moves or make statements based on the presumption that our owners will spend like Mark Cuban.
However, if they won’t even pay a reasonable amount of money to create a winning team (which would make them more money back), then this is all pointless and the team will stink in perpetuity.
In fairness to them, they were willing to spend this offseason. There just wasn’t a player available to us worth spending 10+ million on (sure, Nene & Gasol, but we weren’t getting a RFA). There weren’t any rumors of Petrie wanting to make a move that the Maloofs nixed.
Damn, where do I buy those rose-colored glasses?
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
I'm afraid to. I might start predicting we will make the playoffs this season.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
So *Glug glug*
We don’t have a chance?
Claremont Mckenna College
Forbes #3 in the West, #12 in the Nation
"Crescit cum comercio civicas"
Throw it around the back so it look fly when I pass//
Just to avoid the block go high off the glass//
I'm killing them out there they gon' have to bring caskets//
This all I hear after the baskets *swoosh*//
by HarveySpecter on Jan 26, 2012 11:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How much of an improvement?
Here’s Sections’s post on in-season coaching changes here.
The compressed schedule makes it more difficult. This team just needs time to grow together,
and I’m looking small forward to this next draft.
by getPGwithbounce on Jan 26, 2012 8:33 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Let's keep it simple here
It’s not the number of losses that has up on the ledge, it’s the WAY in which they’re losing-historically bad and in a way that has long time, faithful to a fault fans like me disgustedly turning off a game in the third quarter for the first time EVER.
No doubt about it.
Not justifying how badly we have been losing. Just that we have been winning more than we should have. And our current numbers may not accurately reflect growth in our players.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
I call this spin.
Just that we have been winning more than we should have.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
How is that spin?
Even if we were a .400 team, we have only played three sub .400 teams. Could we have one more games? yes. But, based on winning percentages, we should not have. Spin would be to say that we should be winning half our games. I’m talking about hard numbers, not opinions.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
The Kings are at the bottom of their Pacific Division, at the bottom of the Western Conference Division save for New Orleans, are 29th out of 30 on Hollinger’s Power Rating, rank 22 on the NBA Power Ranking, given the home win against the Pacers and road win against San Antonio, but they have an average point differential of -12.2, which is easily the largest negative point difference in the league. You can look at these numbers through rose-colored lenses, but at the end of the day the team sucks right now. Even if they win a few more games than may have been predicted, they still suck.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
Also doesn't help that the West is 12 teams deep this year...again
and the East is 7 deep….again
And because of the lockout shortened season, we only play those shitty Eastern Conference teams once each.
"First we get jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the chicks."
by Wonderchild on Jan 27, 2012 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
True, it doesn't help.
I don’t want to be the poster contrarian, as I tend to take a realistic position. No matter how anyone wants to spin our situation, the reality is not good for the Kings this season. And, it is highly doubtful that it is going to have a Cinderella ending this season.
It is hard to find any silver linings, although there are a few. Perhaps it is the human condition to try to look for any glimmer of hope; perhaps we want to take a negative situation and re-frame it in a positive light; or perhaps that is part of our survival as a species, coded within our DNA.
A few unanticipated wins don’t exactly make me want to get on the phone to buy some home game tickets, although the upcoming game against the Thunder is a possibility.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
And they have the 5th highest strength of schedule according to ESPN
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 27, 2012 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
What is your point?
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
My point
Is that you are focusing on how bad our numbers, rankings, and standings are. That’s not in question. I am not arguing that we are playing good ball right now. But I believe those numbers are artificially deflated. By contrast, Philly looks amazing right now. But they have played the fourth weakest schedule in the NBA. Their numbers are artificially inflated by the weak schedule they have played.
We know we are not playing well. But we really won’t have a true view of where we rank until our schedule balances out later this year. Once are SOS in toward the middle of the pack, we can say, yeah this is how bad/good we really are.
Our point differential for example is the worst in the NBA. But at least part of that can be attributed to the fact that we are playing extremely good opponents and mostly on the road.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 27, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
I'll give you all that, SB
This has been a dreadful disappointing season, so even the possibility that some numbers could be artificially deflated don’t have me jumping for joy. I can only hope that as the season progresses we will see an upward progression for the team. The schedule may help, Smart’s presence may help, player cohesiveness may improve, Petrie might pull off a trade, etc. Despite the current state of affairs, there is the hope some improvement will occur. At this point, I am not holding my breath that we are going to see a remarkable turnaround. As you say, it is a wait and see situation.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
I wouldn't say they're winning more than they should have.
In fact, if you look at the roster, just on paper, i’d say they should have have two or three more wins than they do.
it’s the WAY in which they’re losing-historically bad and in a way that has long time, faithful to a fault fans like me disgustedly turning off a game in the third quarter for the first time EVER.
don’t get disgusted, watch them and learn what the problems are so you will recognize when things are turning around.
hopefully the kings have a first round draft this year? If so that makes a losing season a lot easier to swallow. Add a new top of class rookie to the Cousins/Evans duo and things will get better faster than you think they could.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 26, 2012 9:54 PM PST up reply actions
Wins and losses only looks at the surface
The deeper and much more daunting issue is HOW they’re losing. 12 of their 13 losses have been by double digits and seven of those have been by 20 or more points. They’ve been blown out by 25+ five times. That’s putrid, disgraceful, and inexcusable.
But it doesn't affect the win loss column,
Not in any way excusing the blowouts. But until we start losing to sub 400 teams, we won’t know how bad/good we really are.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
I completely agree with this, and the context of your whole fanpost, but...
…when this team gives full effort, they have generally won the game, or at least been on par with the team. Look at Toronto, SA, NO, the first half against Houston, first 3/4 of the Orlando game, etc.
That is most frustrating to me. When teams go for the jugular in the 2nd quarter (like Philly, Portland x2, Denver x2, Memphis x2, Chicago) the team stops being aggresive on offense, and stops moving around, and seems to give up too early. It frustrates me when I see the team doing the exact same things wrong every game (like the bigs continually not showing on pick and roll defense to check the guard coming off the screen). Some of this is the team’s youth, and most of the rest is due to the lack of practices and time off between games. This season will be a test of patience.
"First we get jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the chicks."
It will definitely be a test of patience
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
A test of patience? You should have been a minister, SB.
“Patience (or forbearing) is the state of endurance under difficult circumstances, which can mean persevering in the face of delay or provocation without acting on annoyance/anger in a negative way; or exhibiting forbearance when under strain, especially when faced with longer-term difficulties. Patience is the level of endurance one can take before negativity. It is also used to refer to the character trait of being steadfast.” from Wikipedia
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
Ha!
Tell my kids that.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 27, 2012 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
There something about that list of teams, what is it?
Oh yes, they’re all top 4 playoff teams from their conference. We know the Kings have problems that haven’t been addressed for over 2 yrs. They’re not going away in 3 weeks just because PW is gone.
Yes the offense and defense need a lot of work, but your ignoring the improvements since Coach Smart took over. And, it’s happening without Hayes and with an injured Thornton. And, he’s done it without hardly any practice time.
Tyreke is showing improvement under Smart in his ability to get open shots inside the 3pt line for his teammates. Donte is showing improvement and the ability to rebound at the PF position. Jimmer is getting more comfortable. JT has been better all season.
Don’t let the blow outs convince you that there aren’t improvements happening. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Things will be looking up by the All-Star break.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Jan 27, 2012 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
You're right HT..my comment wasn't supposed to be a negative one, but I do see how it can be interpreted that way.
I do see flashes of great play, and a semblance of an identity out there. The injuries have not helped things any either. I do think Jimmer and Tyreke are starting to compliment eachother very well, especially since Jimmer’s shot is starting to fall.
I also think DMC is making a conscious effort to play defense without fouling, which is one reason why he is getting beat more often right now, and taking less charges. This will be helped more when Hayes comes back, as Cousins will not feel like he has to do everything out there.
"First we get jobs, then we get the khakis, then we get the chicks."
Based on strength of schedule, and new roster I had the Kings at 33% thru Jan
which is 7-14 but probably 6-15. With two games to go in Jan. they have a chance of ending at 8-13 which is the magical .380 winning percentage. It will be tough but it’s not out of the question considering that the Kings will have had 2 days to prepare for Utah.
Also, the Kings are 4-4 at home, which is the first step for a developing team. Win the games you should win at home, win most of your home games, and them start winning the games you should on the road.
I like to view improvement on different scales than win/loss. Coach Smart said the team needed to improve defending and running the fast break. So how well has he done that.
In games under PW: Opponent’s FB PTs 134; King’s FB PT’s 103 average deficit 4.5 per gm
In games under KS: Opponent’s FB PTs 179; Kings FB PT’s 197 average advantage 1.6 per game. The Kings have gone from giving up 19.1 pts to 14.8 per game while at the same time improving their FB PTs from 14.7 to 16.4. That’s a 6pt improvement in just 12 games under Coach Smart. That also plays a factor in PT’s off TO’s, where the Kings are currently just a -2 compared to their opponents under Coach Smart.
And, on an individual improvement, Cuz has 13 double doubles in 18 games; has had 10+ pts in 17 of his 18 games and has had 10+ rebounds in 14 of 18 games.
Maybe the most interesting individual stat involves Jimmer. He has had 7 games with 10+ pts and 1 with 20+ pts, and he has lead the team in scoring 3 times and in ASSISTS 5 times. This is a rookie within any Rookie Summer League, Training Camp, Preseason Games, and who some say isn’t a PG.
If Jimmer can continue to run the team as he has the last 3 games, If Tyreke can add a consistent short and mid range jumper to his repetrior, and if Cuz can add a baby hook and stop rushing his put backs, that is going to be one impressive trio to build around. And, I anticipate some big home wins later in our schedule. And, .380 may be the low end of the potential even with the roster we have now.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Jan 27, 2012 11:13 AM PST reply actions 8 recs
I <3 you, HT.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jan 27, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Nice assessment. You've really got this game analysis thing going for you.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
Do I trust you? Or my lyin' eyes?
"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower
You can't hide your lyin' eyes
But my smile is a thin disguise
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why do people ask rhetorical questions?
by lchristmas on Jan 27, 2012 1:05 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Does anybody really know what time it is?
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
by SavageBeast on Jan 27, 2012 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Does anybody really care?
If so I can’t imagine why, we’ve all got time enough to cry.
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
A different way to calculate expected winnings.
There is another way to calculate expected winnings. Let say the BBall team is an average, 50% winning, team. When BBall is playing at home against a team that wins 65 % on the road, BBall’s probability of winning is 1 – .65 or .35. When BBall plays at home against a team that wins 40% of its road games, BBall’s probability of winning is 1 – .4 = .6. Add up all the probabilities of a 50% winning team playing the King’s schedule to date and their expected win total would be 7.04 of 19 games. The Kings have won 6 of 19 games and are only one game behind despite their many lopsided losses. Two wins or three out of four would bring the Kings back up to a respectable record.
Of course BBall may have a particularly hard schedule this year and thus may be as good as the average 50% winning team and win less than 50%.
Carlji
by Carlji on Jan 27, 2012 5:33 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I'm moving into this thread...
unrolling the sleeping bag and putting my pillow here. Wake me up when we get to the easy part of the season.
You might want to check out some cryogenic services first.
Asked if the Kings had any intention of trading Cousins, basketball president Geoff Petrie said, "No."
really?
I almost never post on here as this is my second comment( I’ve trolled for about three years) but what is up with the .380 win percentage and strength of schedule etc etc. ever hear Bill Parcells quote “you are what your record says you are.” The Kings suck and they suck hard! lets quit with the support at all cost and be happy with an improvement over a .293 win percentage. I want a team that if they suck they’re makin some a changes. Fired the GM, get a new coach(done thank god),amnesty players, bench em, blow it up do something. Being happy with a win percentage .120 under .500 is shit. I want wins not excuses. Looking at the glass half full is ok if its half full but this one is about three quarters empty with holes in it and no liquid is getting poured back in.
by they lost again? on Jan 30, 2012 10:20 PM PST reply actions
Welcome to the forum
I can understand your frustration, but I think that the general point here is that being a small market team, the most likely path to success involves developing young talent, since no big stars will sign here.
This comes with ups and downs and patience can be key. Imagine if the Thunder had blown things up shortly after they fired PJ, when Scott Brooks had the team progressing, but still losing and even getting blown out in a number of games.
The coach needed to go. The GM might. Salmons is ripe to be amnestied in the offseason if he doesn’t improve his play (you cannot amnesty mid-season, there are set time frames when it is allowed). However, the phrase “don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater” applies here. There are good elements to this team. And right now, we are trying to evaluate what they are.
The points a few of us have made is that the schedule has been insanely difficult. This means that installing new concepts are harder. It also means that as the team grows and the schedule gets easier (which it does), we will have a better opportunity to asses the team and understand what changes we hope they make either before the trade deadline or in the off season.
Right now I think the glass is half full, it’s just that some of it is Grey Goose Vodka and some is Pig’s Eye Beer. Hopefully we can separate the two as the season continues and continue to build a tasty, completely full beverage that makes us drunk in our fandom.
tried to respond to this five different times
When the keyboard began to smoke, I realized it was pointless. I’m sure your plan of firing everyone, blowing everything up, and starting over will get you the winning team you so desire.
It comes down to reality
And it's fine with me 'cause I've let it slide
"you are what your record says you are."
you are what you are at the end of the season. The argument was that the schedule makes the team look worse than it really is. The upcoming game against the warriors should tell a lot as they have their own problems.
Mirror on the wall
Here we are again.
by Skeptic con Urquell on Jan 31, 2012 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
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