FanPost

How Bad Are the Kings Really Doing This Year?

Okay, I'm going to keep this pretty short. Mostly because it's hard to argue with what people think they see. And what we are seeing from the Kings right now is pretty pathetic. 27th in offensive rating. 29th in defensive rating. 24th in PPG. Last in opponent's points per game. It is definitely ugly.

Now you could argue that we are a very young team, that we had a coaching change, that we've had our starting center out for a good chunk of the season. All very good points, and I think most would agree they have had some impact. But let's step past all that for a moment and look at wins and loses. How many games should we have won to this point compared to how many we have actually won?

It turns out this is a pretty easy number to figure out. Let's start by looking at our winning percentage last season. Okay, close your eyes, this is going to bring back painful memories. Last year we finished with a dismal .293 winning percentage. We had to improve over that, right? Right! But by how much? Would a ten percent improvement be good enough? Twenty? What if we improved by 25%? Would that make us feel a little better about life? I'll tell you what, let's go for broke here. Let's improve by a whopping 30%. Any company that improved it's performance by 30% would be doing awesome.

So, in order to accomplish that, we have to play .380 ball. Some of you are rushing off to check the stats right now. Don't bother. We aren't there. We're at a measly .316. But what if we were to compare the .380 we are shooting for with the winning percentages of the teams we have faced so far. Forget about road/home. Forget about injuries. Forget about youth. Bottom line, let's compare the winning percentage of the teams we have faced so far to our goal of .380. How many games should we have won? Ten? Eight?

The actual number is 2. So far, we have played exactly two teams with a record below .380. And one of those team was on the road where they should have an advantage. Realistically, we should be looking at a team with one or two wins at best. This is not my opinion, this is based on strength of schedule.

And yet we have won six games. Four more than we should have. With struggling shooters, with injured players, facing a nasty home road schedule, we are doing better than we have any right to expect. I won't say this will continue if we don't get our act together. But I will say that the glass is not nearly as empty as it looks. If we can keep improving and working, if some players get their numbers even back up to normal, the schedule will be much kinder to us in the second half.

So don't throw away those season tickets just yet. The light at the end of the tunnel might not be a train.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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