Kings vs. Jazz Preview: MANIA

Utah is 7th in the West with a record of 10-7, somewhat due to a favorable schedule. They have played 11 home games (8-3) and only 6 road games (2-4) primarily against the West. Their home victories came against Philly by 3, New Orleans by 4, Milwaukee by 12, Memphis by 9, Cleveland by 8, the Kobe’s by 3, New Jersey by 13, the Clippers by 29, and Minnesota by 10. They are 6-3 when they score 100pts or more, and 1-4 when their opponents score 100+ pts. They have lost both of their overtime games including their last home game against the Raptors, and they are only 2-2 in games decided by 3 or less pts. And, while the Kings are only 3-9 against plus .500 teams; Utah is only 3-2 against sub-.500 teams.

What does all that mean? Well, the Kings best chance is to keep the game close and hold Utah under 100pts, or score over 100pts themselves. That won’t be easy since Utah scores over 100pts in 53% of their games and holds their opponent to under 100pts in 70% of their games.

As with most teams in the league, Utah would seem to be better than the Kings both offensively and defensively, although it is closer than one might guess based on their records. Both teams try to score around the rim at the same rate (25 attempts per game), and from 3pt range they shot similar percentages (42%). The Kings have the advantage in Off Reb Rate while Utah holds a sizable advantage in Def Reb Rate hopefully the return of Hayes can turn that advantage around. The Jazz have the advantage in FG% and Blocks per game. Both teams are quite similar in FT%, FT rate, Steals, and Turnover Rate.

Utah’s starters are Devin Harris and Raja Bell in the backcourt, Al Jefferson at Center, Gordon Hayward at SF and Paul Milsap at PF. Enes Kantar and Derrick Favor are the backups at 4/5, CJ Miles at 3, and Earl Watson and rookie Alex Burks in the backcourt. Jefferson returned for last night’s game in Dallas after missing the previous game with an inflamed right ankle so he should be available for the Kings game, but if he’s out I’d expect Favors to start at Center.

The Kings went 1-3 against the Jazz last season, with the win coming in April against basically the same Utah starters except Watson was at Point. The Kings starters, Garcia, Cousins, Dalembert, Thornton and Evans scored 75 of the teams 106 pts. The remaining 31 bench pts came from Beno, Thompson, Jackson and Greene. The Kings shot 52% from the field, 40% from three and 82% from the FT stripe. Sac had 29 assists and only 13 turnovers. What ever happened to that team?

This season Jefferson has been the leading scorer and rebounder 8 times. Milsap has lead in scoring 7 times and rebounding 6 times. They are one and two in scoring and rebounding so it’s imperative that the Kings come up with help and rotations in the paint to slow those two down. Watch for guards and wings to set screens and back picks on whoever is covering Millsap to get him free in the paint. Bell is the only real threat from 3PT range but Harris, Hayward and Miles are known to put up a few.

Utah had to fly back from Dallas last night, and is playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while the Kings will have had two days to practice and rest. I like the front court matchups of Cuz and Jefferson plus Hayes and Millsap. If Jimmer can continue his steady stream of 3pt shots and Donte is allowed to get back to SF where he should be a good match against Hayward, I see the Kings being very competitive after 2 days of practice.