How do we turn this thing around? Part 2

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 12:04 AM PST

So, in my opinion, we have two good starters that have the potential to be all-stars, and some solid rotational players in Marcus Thorton and JT that ideally would complete a 3 man guard and big man rotation. We also have a lottery pick this year, some intriguing young players in Jimmer Fredette and JJ Hickson, and a fair amount of cap space.

The next important question is the following: What do we need? Obviously, if we agree on the assessment above, we have holes at the 1, 3, and the 4/5. However, as we have seen this year, we need a specific type of player to complement the ones we currently have or the team will remain unbalanced and painful to watch.

For the point guard position, we need someone that would offset Tyreke’s weaknesses, so I would look specifically at a more traditional pass first player and someone that can stretch the defense with their outside shooting. Because the draft this year seems limited in point guards, I would look for the answer here in free agency. Top on my list would be DJ Augustin. First and foremost, he is good shooter. He can run the pick and roll with DeMarcus (which we are badly needing as we get very little in the way of assisted baskets close to the rim) and he will move the ball. Also, with Kemba Walker playing well, it is very likely that Charlotte might not want to match a big offer for him, so he is a player that we could realistically get.

Small forward is our greatest need at this point. John Salmons is playing out of position and looks as if he has lost a step, making him much less effective than he was during his first go-around. Worse, he has an awful contract. The only saving grace here is that we had to add contract dollars simply to make it to the minimum floor level for the cap, and his contract comes off the books about the same time Tyreke and DeMarcus will be getting a big pay raise. That being said, it sure would have been nice to get some production for the cap money being spent, and we are getting nothing at this point.

Good news is this draft is loaded in small forwards and two specifically, Michael Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes, would both provide a dramatic upgrade at the position. Because Barnes is the better shooter, he is my favorite of the two. On the free agency front, Nic Batum is a restricted free agent, and Portland already has Gerald Wallace at the 3, so it is likely he will be available. In this case, if we completely luck out and get the first or second pick in the draft, I would go hard after Batum and sign him to a big deal. This is the ideal scenario as he is a great defender, moves well without the ball and knocks down the open shot, strengthening all of our teams' current weaknesses.

At the 4/5 position, this draft also has several players that would be instant upgrades. Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond would be wonderful complements next to DMC. Ideally, the player we put next to DeMarcus would be an athletic shotblocker that also can score, and they both fit the bill. If we draft lower, I would look to fill the 3 spot in the draft and try to land Ryan Anderson in free agency. Again because Orlando is going all in for Howard, I doubt they are going to tie up a lot of cap space on Anderson. He also works well because he can stretch the floor with his outside shooting. Lastly, as a local kid, he might actually look at Sacramento as an attractive destination, which would be a refreshing change.

Adding any combination of these players next year with our cap space and draft picks should markedly improve the team, and I feel like with a little luck, we could make a big leap.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Good write up

A couple of thoughts:

1 – I wouldn’t mind DJ, but he may not be necessary. Jimmer could be the guard you pair with Evans. Both can pass and Jimmer’s shooting can space the floor. If you sign DJ, you are basically committing to Jimmer as a backup. DJ would get about 30 minutes a game and Evans 36. That leaves 30 minutes at PG/SG for both Jimmer and Thornton. Maybe 35 if you run 5 minutes a game with a smaller lineup. So now we’ve spent 8 million and the #10 pick on two players getting 17-18 mpg. Plus, you have no true backup SG. In certain match ups or if Evans gets hurt, we would be at a big disadvantage. And when Evans gets his extension, you would be spending about 28-20 mil a year on your guards. If Jimmer continues to progress, I’m not sure that’s a wise move.

2 – I agree about the draft for PF. For SF we may have to get lucky. I think we will wind up picking in the 7-10 range. We already have a better record than the Bobcats, Wizards, Hornets, and Pistons and we are tied with the Raptors. I think when our schedule gets easier, we end up passing the Raptors, Cavs, Suns, and one of the Bucks or the Nets. That would give us the 9th pick. I think both Barnes and MKG are gone by then. So we would have our pick of several SGs and PFs.

3 – I think we are going to have to sign or trade for a SF. Batum & Dudley would top my list of players we could potentially get for a reasonable cost. Thought it largely depends on their current team’s roster plans.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 29, 2012 12:53 AM PST reply actions

I wouldn't be against giving up Jimmer for a Batum sign and trade

Jimmer and JJ are pieces that are valuable, but I’m not sure how they fit long term with our team.

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 10:00 AM PST up reply actions

I disagree with trading Jimmer at this point.

He is looking to be a good compliment with Tyreke in the back court. The FO needs to stop getting rid of pieces that compliment our two budding stars (Dalembert, Beno, Casspi) and start building around these guys. Hayes looks to be a good start, as well as JT, Jimmer, and IT.

Thornton I am not sure about because Evans and Thornton have not had a whole lot of playing time together yet.

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by Wonderchild on Jan 29, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

Great write-up

however, why not go out and sign Wilson Chandler to man the 3 with the lion’s share of our remaining cap space. Use the remaining portion of this season as ‘training’ camp. Amnesty Salmons over the summer, draft the best big available and re-sign THompson to reasonable deal(5-6 million annually?)

C: Cousins, Hayes, Whiteside
PF: (2012 1st rounder), Thompson
SF: Chandler, Garcia, Honeycutt
SG: Evans, Thornton
PG: Jimmer, Isaiah, 2012 2nd rounder

I’m of the opinion that Jimmer’s gonna be a very good POINT guard. I think his playmaking has been the strongest part of his game. His shooting is just now starting to come around. I wouldn’t be opposed to signing a vet pg on the cheap for this roster either.

by Smills9133 on Jan 29, 2012 5:58 AM PST reply actions

Would love it if you were right about Jimmer

…but I just don’t see it.

He is a sniper from the outside, but he hasn’t shown much else.

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 9:57 AM PST up reply actions

He's shown good court vision

He needs to keep improving his handles, but he’s made some very nice passes. And he’s shot both open shots and off the dribble. I agree with Smills that he can mature into a good complement to Evans and Cousins.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 29, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions

I think Jimmer is LIGHT YEARS ahead of where Nash was as a rookie

and I’m not saying Jimmer will be the NBA’s MVP or Nash in the future. But the kid is a lights out shooter, shown great court awareness, made some pretty good passes, and as his shots continue to go down, that’ll open up more opportunities for passing lanes etc. The Kid has a Kevin Martin like work ethic and a very high basketball IQ. Give him an off-season to work with NBA professional level trainers, get the offense down pat and I promise you Jimmer at worst will be a solid starting PG level player in the NBA.

by Smills9133 on Jan 29, 2012 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

I agree with you.

I’ve said for a couple years that Curry would be the perfect complement for Evans. I think that Curry is a more gifted passer than Jimmer, but they appear to show a lot of the same qualities.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 29, 2012 2:27 PM PST up reply actions

I agree with you completely.

At worst I see Jimmer being comparable to a young Mike Bibby. He is about the same size and I’d say more athletic (and a better shooter).

by DWeissbart on Jan 29, 2012 2:32 PM PST up reply actions

In my opinion there is ZERO in his playmaking that reminds me of Bibby

Bibby as a young PG was a masterful playmaker. I just havent even seen flashes of that from Jimmer. He gets lost when he drives the lane at times, and leaves his feet to pass. I would say comparing him to an older Mike Bibby is better at this point as he does have a solid outside shot, and lacks defense but can definitely still draw the attention of a defense by sitting outside. Just my opinion.

I do think he fits better besides Evans than any other guard on this roster. Unfortunately I do not think he is ready to be a starter but realistically they dont have a choice when Thornton is out.

by WebberDynasty on Jan 29, 2012 4:19 PM PST up reply actions

Starter is more long term

I agree. Bibby at this stage of his development was a much better passer. He averaged over 9 assists a game with the Grizzlies.

I think when most people think of Bibby, they think of how the Kings used him as a part of the offense to spread the floor and run the P&R with Webber.

I think Jimmer can develop into the type of player the Kings used Bibby as. And that’s really what we need from him as a complementary player to Evans & Cousins.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 29, 2012 4:42 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry, I disagree

I am really pulling for Jimmer, but comparing him to Nash is delusional. First off, it’s hard to compare them as rookies because when Nash was drafted, Phoenix was a veteran team with loads of talent. I believe he was stuck behind both KJ (who was nearing the end) and Jason Kidd (and they might have even had Sam Cassell), so he understandably got no run whatsoever as a rookie.

That being said, Nash never picks up his dribble and Jimmer often picks up his (often in midair). Both are white and good shooters, but that’s where the comparison ends in my book.

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 6:46 PM PST up reply actions

I do like Chandler though.

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 9:58 AM PST up reply actions

I don't know how exactly you turn it around

but if things aren’t looking a lot better by the end of February, then the Kings need to do something before the March 15th deadline. Lots of trade opportunies out there this year.

by deadenddude on Jan 29, 2012 6:30 AM PST reply actions

My 2cents

How to turn things around?

Sac will never be able to compete as a big market All Star loaded basketball team. Super stars are not going to choose to come to the Kings. In fact, I think it would be safe to assume that you and I have about the same chance of suiting up for the Kings next year as does any top tier free agent. Getting super stars pick SacTown over LA, New York, Chicago, Boston, Miami, etc is something that really can’t be controlled.

What we can control is style of play, and team chemistry.

I thinking outside of the box and using a boxing reference. Does anyone remember the first Pacquiao vs Marquez fight from the early 2000’s? Marquez was far more talented but Pacquiao’s tireless aggression helped him earn a draw. That is my opinion on how the Kings should play. Fresh legs on the court at all times, and trying to wear down the opponents other players. Molding the Kings style of play after todays Nuggets, and the Nellie Ball Warriors would give our current roster a better chance of competing. Depth=Fresh Legs and Aggression

As for team chemistry. Keeping the same players around, resigning draft picks, and developing talent think OKC. I am in favor of resigning Thompson and Greene as a part of our core. Those two plus Jimmer, Evans, and Cousins, with Hayes and Thornton, along with IT, Whiteside, and Honeycut developing and getting the run to improve.

by fliptikal on Jan 29, 2012 10:03 AM PST reply actions

This is called Moneyball

by Smills9133 on Jan 29, 2012 2:09 PM PST up reply actions

small market success

I think small market success comes from drafting players that will be happy in your location, trading/signing mid-range solid role players and focusing on a very disciplined approach to the game. San Antonio and Utah have done this to great success. If you draft a superstar kid that wants to play in the big city you won’t be able to keep him if he turns out to be really good, or you wasted your pick on a bust…those are you’re only two options. Its a different mentality, but can be successful.

by coltsfan37 on Jan 30, 2012 11:07 AM PST up reply actions

My blue moon will taste so much better if...

If we play an fast paced style of play that the majority of players enjoy along with taking pride in team defense.

If our management earns a reputation as a being an organization that takes care of its players.

If our younen’s continue to develop and grow together.

by fliptikal on Jan 29, 2012 10:07 AM PST reply actions

I think our guard play is decent

We do need a vet pg although I think you can find a Kirk Hinrich/Mo Williams/Luke Ridnour/Devin Harris/Jose Calderon (gasp) type of player to help and not neccessarily sign a long term deal with someone like DJ because of the fact that someone already mentioned, it would be coinciding with Reke/Cuz extensions. I think we need to make a trade for that pg this yr, since we have young players on ending deals and there is some available. Our guards can learn from a vet pg and I think they’re good enough to man the position down the line. Draft a PF since we are going to be in the 5-9 range and there’s some good ones. Sign a SF and I think were set. Draft Thomas Robinson, Sign Nic Batum to an offer sheet, trade for pg this yr. the absolute highest I would go is a 12 mil frontloaded deal that decreases or 10.5 mil annually, that’s the highest.

by Chent on Jan 29, 2012 11:03 AM PST via mobile reply actions

it sucks because those prices are kinda high for Batum

And wouldn’t sound so bad if we didn’t have 11 mil already tied up in dead fish, Salmons & Trout (outlaw). I think that’s what its going to take to get him away from the Blazers

by Chent on Jan 29, 2012 11:08 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

Agree with you. Guessing we amnesty Salmons.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Jan 29, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

i think we paid to much for thorton and chuck..........

by cowboyron96@yahoo.com on Jan 30, 2012 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

somewhat agree

I like chuck alot, but he is just not built to defend the taller players and he isn’t a real scoring threat. I love his hardwork and guts but he needs 4 more inches to play his position well. Thorton I think is paid ok, but needs to be our sixth man, he likes to shoot and would be great energy off the bench when needed (like we did in Utah!)

by coltsfan37 on Jan 30, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions

Actually

Chuck is a fine defender in the post, regardless of the size of the opponent.

The offensive side is an issue, certainly.

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by otis29 on Jan 30, 2012 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

Especially when the taller player posts up.

He has that swipe-down down pat right as the player spins to shoot. His trouble is when they spot up shoot, say after a pick and pop, or something like that. If they put the ball on the floor, it’s Chuck’s!

"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!

by caseycheesecake on Jan 30, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions

One issue with trading for a guard

One issue with trading for a guard is people fail to realize you have to give up IT, Jimmer, or Thornton in doing so no doubt. So that means if you want a Hinrich or a Devin Harris you have to have Thornton or Jimmer in that package or IT along with one of your bigs. No way you can have five young guards and have them develop. This team is at a point where Tyreke needs 40 minutes, and the othe guard plus first guard off the bench need to combine for about 58 with a 4th guard getting end of quarter and garbage time minutes. I think so many of the fans are in love with some of these guards (often times it seems to be if you like Jimmer you dislike Evans, or if you like IT you dislike Jimmer, etc) so I hope folks realize to bring in a guard you are going to have to clear at least one guard out likely as well.

Personally I think I am at the point where if a Mo Willimas or a Hinrich could be had I would gladly give up a Thornton and make Jimmer my sixth man/scorer off the bench type. But if that cannot be done I am all for leaving Jimmer alongside Tyreke and have Thornton off the bench. (UNLESS Smart tries to run small ball for a few games and see success in it somehow.)

by WebberDynasty on Jan 29, 2012 4:26 PM PST up reply actions

I see where your coming from

But I think if we can upgrade at point guard, have a vet showing our young guys the ropes and helping Reke with distributing, we go for it. I don’t think they would have to trade any of our guards, those guys I mentioned all have about 2 yrs left on there deals and would be on there way out as soon as our youngins are ready to take over. Jimmer/Isaiah are rookies and there minutes would definately take a hit, but in the longrun I think that veteran presence would help them. so our backcourt would be like this, vet pg/ Reke starters Thornton comes in first with Reke sliding to the 3, Jimmer/Isaiah get the leftovers. I see what you’re saying though, if Thornton had to go I wouldn’t be that upset if it improved our team, and even though I love IT, if we can bring in an upgrade with him being packaged we do it. I’m like 99% sure Jimmer won’t be going anywhere though, he’s a moneymaker and a top 10 pick that the organization is going to try to get as much as they can out of him

by Chent on Jan 29, 2012 6:57 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

I disagree with 'have a vet showing our young guys the ropes'

First, what are we looking for in a vet PG? Someone who penetrates, draws the double team and dishes? Someone who can initiate the offense? Someone who can score? Or, someone who can TEACH?

Coach Smart, based on his past experience in GS, seems to be able to show guards how to play. I’d rather have him show them in practice then put the knowledge to use in games, then have them learn from some vet and then watch from the bench.

Yes, Jimmer & IT aren’t playing like consistent vets, but they also don’t play like they’re completely lost rookies finding their way. Like all of our top draft choices over the last few seasons, they need to be taught and then put what they learned into practice.

Adding a vet PG, will do very little as far as inproving the win/loss ratio, until everyone learns how to play team ball and improve their own skills. A PG isn’t going to improve Cuz’s low post moves or how to get open in the paint. And, a PG isn’t going to improve Tyreke’s jumper or ability to finish with his left hand at the rim.

Our core talent has had very little improvement, on an individual level. I’d kind of like to see what Coach Smart and Coach English can do with them after a couple of months before we start moving players. Two months from now Tyreke, Jimmer and IT could be legit starting PG’s, and then what would we do if we pick up another big salary vet in the mean time?

Any one player move is not going to have a major impact before the end of the season. the biggest impact will come from developing the talent we already have.

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by HighTops on Jan 30, 2012 1:03 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

So you’re saying if you bring in a PG, you’ll feed Reke for a day. If Smart can teach Reke, you’ll feed Reke for life?

"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!

by caseycheesecake on Jan 30, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions

Or, Jimmer

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by HighTops on Jan 30, 2012 11:39 PM PST up reply actions

Nice way of pulling it all together R - Man

I won’t go off on a tangent like I did last night. Just a small correction. You keep referring to free agents but there are other ways to acquire players other than free agents, specifically trades. Theoretically any player currently signed to an NBA contract with the exception of players who have recently signed contracts are potential trade pieces.

I know it’s kind of a minor point but it expands considerably the pool of potential players available to the Kings. I’m aware that factually, the majority of top tier players aren’t yearning to play in Sacramento but it is how the Kings got Chris Webber.

I do share your opinion regarding Jimmer, I don’t really see him as a starter. On the other hand, while many fans have high hopes for him, nobody really knows what the Kings have in him. Maybe he really is a starting caliber point guard, time will tell soon enough which means it’s premature to consider trading him now.

Great write up, thanks for all the work you put into the two posts.

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by Bluejohn on Jan 29, 2012 1:16 PM PST reply actions

Trades obviously can help to transform the roster as well...

…but they are harder to predict in any sort of meaningful way, so I didn’t attempt it. We know we have cap space and we know a particular player is a free agent. We also can look at their current situation, and make an educated guess about whether their current team will try to retain them. It still a crapshoot, but at least it is a real possibility.

I would say Jimmer and JJ are the pieces I would move. They are young and cheap, so they are attractive to other teams, but I am not sure they fit with this squad as they duplicate the skills of other players.

by R-Man on Jan 29, 2012 1:41 PM PST up reply actions

I don't think the answer is buying high and selling low

Letting Jimmer go in trade won’t get you much value back and I am not sure anybody should be ready to write him off yet. This team desperately needs shooting and he is one of the few players on the team who is a lights out shooter.

And there really has not been a chance to see how well he can develop. Not even half of a crappy season with no practice time, a coaching change in the middle of it, and only recent clarification on his role in the team is a lot going against a rookie showing out early.

I could go along with you on getting Batum or just about anybody but Salmons at SF, but am not so sure we have a problem with our guard line up that can’t be fixed. The real problem is that Tyreke needs another combo guard to play with and I think Jimmer can do even better in that role than Beno did once he has some seasoning.

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by CowbellKings on Jan 29, 2012 9:43 PM PST reply actions

Just Do It!!

What is geoff petrie waiting for?do some trades!our team stinks…..Gezz….i read bleacher report and travis outlaw is one of the 50th worst players in nba.another bad geoff petrie hiring.then there is salmons,my god.i wish the maloofs would sell team to ron burkle and he in turns fires petrie and start all over.new med.staff the whole nine yards.brother we are going no where fast and yeah is it march 1 yet????

by cowboyron96@yahoo.com on Jan 30, 2012 10:43 AM PST reply actions