is that it’s largely based on the fact I feel the plan that we’ve seen so far with the arena is likely a house of cards unless someone like Burkle is somehow involved.

is that if the money to finance the arena comes up short and it’s because the Maloofs cannot poney up enough and aren’t willing to because they are uncomfortable with the lack of revenue streams (for example, they ain’t getting much parking money and they are likely going to lose a chunk of game day income because of user fees) the ESC plan is fucked.

Yet, if the NBA says “Oh you don’t want to do it fine we will make sure to get the other owners all on board to block your move to Anaheim because of the Time Warner deal unless you have a couple hundred million laying around” then they are fucked and stuck with an arena where they owe much more in rent than most teams (because of the loan payments) which also has no revenue coming in from it’s naming rights and won’t because it’s not worth anything now to anybody after the whole PowerBalance disaster, and surviving on walk up ticket revenue sales. And even worse, none of their other businesses have revenue flowing in right now and that’s important to remember because even during good times they were propping the Kings using their cashflow from their other businesses.

The city is clearly trying to avoid selling any bonds either because (a) although they will never say it in public their lawyers do believe it will leave them more susceptable to a referendum or (b) they don’t have the bonding power because they are so broke, or a little of both.

What I am telling you is that if the ESC plan doesn’t work without Maloof contributions up front (as in the City, NBA, and AEG don’t have the money it takes to build this now. Not talking about financing here, I am talking about upfront money and it’s an important distinction) then this plan is fucked without another 3rd party player. And a third party ain’t just loaning us the Money without wanting something in return. And if it’s a higher interest rate than a municipal bond and it’s remotely close to a lot of money, that’s potential political suicide for any council member who votes for this thing. And no third party financer is going to lend the money for a low low interest rate.

And the Maloofs are never going to say “We’re in a tight spot we might have to sell.” They’d be idiots. Either they are going to have to go to war with the NBA or the NBA sees their side of things or they negotiate because they’re screwed. Either route they go, the best thing for them to say in public (and they’re saying it to the NBA too) is that they have no intention of selling and will work it all out.

And look, I am a pessimistic bastard. At the same time, I can’t see how the NBA would okay the move to Anaheim unless that rich bastard down there (and yeah forgot his name) was willing to take the financial hit with the Time Warner contract with the Lakers. And that’s a toooooon of money from what I remember. And I don’t see a situation where the Maloofs like the ESC here because they are giving up revenue streams that in the past they refused to give up and they will need to contribute money they don’t want to give up right now. And I see a city, an arena operator, and a league that are all working together on an ESC while the owners who might not like the deal happen to be out of the loop.