Kings vs. Warriors: WAKA WAKA

Just change your perspective a bit and BAM….

… suddenly the Kings and Warriors are the top 2 .

How do you like us now Clippers?!?!?! Enjoy that cellar.

The Warriors are in 13th place in the West just a game ahead of the Kings. They are 4-7 at home and 2-5 on the road. Last season under Coach Smart, Golden State had a record of 36-46 and a 10-game improvement from the previous season. Under new coach Mark Jackson, the Warriors are on pace to win 22 games this season. With 11 of their 18 games being at home, you’d expect more wins than that. But, 13 of those 18 games were against +.500 teams, and when you factor in that Curry missed 9 Gms with an ankle sprain, Brown missed 8 Gms with a torn pectoral muscle, and Biedrins missed 3 Gms with a foot problem, the Warriors are probably better than their record shows.

GS has the same 5 starters as last season; Biedrins at Center, David Lee & Dorell Wright at the Forwards and Curry & Ellis in the backcourt. They added Kawame Brown and Dominic McGuire in free agency, and added 6-7 SG Klay Thompson, 6-10 PF Jeremy Tyler, and 6-3 PG/SG Charles Jenkins thru the draft. There other reserves are last year’s #1 draft pick 6-10 PF Ekpe Udoh, 6-6 SG/SF Brandon Rush drafted in 2008, free agent SF Chris Wright and guard Ishmael Smith. Brown has missed the last 8 games and isn’t expected to play against the Kings

The Kings have a 2 game winning streak against this same starting 5, going back to March 14th 2011. Tyreke was still recovering from his FP treatment, when the Kings won 129-119 at PBP. Thornton scored 42 and Dalembert had his career high of 27. The Kings attacked inside outscoring GS 66-38 in the paint. Sac had a 7pt lead in Fast Break Pts, had a total rebounding advantage of 18 and plus 7 on the offensive glass. The last Kings win was in Oakland on April 14, 2011 when the Kings squeaked out a 104-103 road victory. This time GS held a slight edge in the paint and the FB pts were even. The Kings held a 9 reb advantage but the Warriors turned an advantage on the offensive boards and 23 Kings Turnovers into 19 more FGA’s. Thornton’s 22 ft jumper with 12 seconds left gave the Kings a 4 pt margin, which Curry cut to 1 hitting a 3 with 1.8 left. But, it was the Kings 11 pts advantage at the FT line on 12 more attempts that turned the tide.

The Kings did lose in Oakland in Pre-Season, but they were without Cuz who got a DNP-CD from Westphal, Hayes was out for his heart test, and Salmons missed the game with a Quad Contusion. A couple of interesting stats from that game; the Kings shot 13-28 for 46% from three. Thornton was 3-6, Jimmer was 4-6, Greene was 3-5, and IT was 2-4 while Garcia and Evans were 1-7. Also, Hassan got some burn in this game, with 2pts on 1-3 shooting, 5 rebounds, and 1 assist in 12:23.

GS shoots about the league average in attempts and percentages from all ranges except from three pt where they take more and make them at a higher percentage. In the last four games, the Warriors shot 38 of 84 or .452 from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson ranks second among rookies in three-point percentage and has hit 9-of-17 (.529) over the last 4 games. Defensively, we’ll have to guard Curry, Thompson, Rush and Dorell Wright beyond the 3pt line. That’s going to leave the pressure on our bigs to protect the lane on their own which isn’t exactly their strong suit.

Last season with Houston, Hayes had a rebounding advantage against the Warriors in 3 out of 4 games. In his recent absence, the Kings were out rebounded in 8 of 10 games. Sac will need him to repeat that kind of effort and they’ll need to get to the long rebounds off GS’s missed 3’s if we are going to control the boards. GS gives up a lot of assisted baskets at the rim, if the Kings attack the paint they can create easy baskets, and they’ll draw more fouls leading to FT’s. The Warriors have a record of 4-1 when they have held opponents under 42.0 percent from the field, but they are 1-8 when their opponent scores >100 pts. If we defend the 3pt line and attack the paint, this is a very winnable road game.