Kings vs. Suns: ALL OF OUR PAIN IS CHAMPAGNE

I’d like to start off by saying that Thursday’s game was a glorious effort and a huge step for the Kings. They did exactly what they needed to do to win, by limiting their turnovers and maximizing their Offensive Rebounds and 2nd chance points. They continued to go to their strength which was in the paint in spite of getting their shot blocked 17 times which nullified the majority of their 22 FGA advantage. In the end one negative was very apparent; the Kings half-court offense is in need of major work
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The Kings have a .636 winning percentage at home while playing fewer home games than any team in the West. OKC is the only team in the West that has a better road winning percentage than that, and we know we can beat them at home. So any home game should be a good chance for a victory which brings us to our next victim, the Phoenix Suns.

The Kings were 3-1 against the Suns last season and have won the last 3 including both games at PBP. In our last meeting, the 116-113 victory at PBP on March 29th of last season, the Kings big 3 all had great games. Thornton was the high scorer with 24 and career high 11 rebounds, Tyreke played 26 minutes off the bench and had 11pts, 10 rebs and 8 asts. DeMarcus had 17pts, 7 rebs and a career high 8 assists. Jason Thompson recorded his eighth double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds, and Donte Greene scored 18 points off the bench.

Phoenix is one game ahead of the Kings in the standings, having won 5 of their last 10 games, and is 6-8 on the road. Contrary to their previous history as a high scoring team, the Suns have only scored over 100 pts in 6 of their 26 contests but did win 5 of the 6. Defensively they allowed they opponents to score 100+ points in 10 games and the Suns lost 8 of those. They’ve done it against the weakest schedule in the Pacific division.

While the Suns have the advantage in TS% and Assist Rate, the Kings have the advantage on the boards. The Kings scoring advantage at the rim is partially nullified with Nash dishing out half of his assists at the rim. Nash is dishing out 10 apg down from the last two season’s 11 apg average, but like any true playmaking PG more than half come in the paint and mostly at the rim. JJ would probably be a double-double guy on Nash’s team. Gortat’s FG% at the rim is up almost 10% above his career average before coming to Phoenix, and 82% of his baskets are assisted.

Phoenix is pretty long of tooth, which is probably why the Pace of play has slowed to below the Pace of San Antonio. Their front court of Hill, Gortat, and Frye and their back court of Nash and Dudley have a combined 45 years of NBA experience. Add 11 for Michael Redd, 7 for Sebastian Telfair, 6 from several others and you have a team desperate for youth. Their entire starting lineup is capable of putting up double digit scoring, but only Gortat is a threat on the boards. Frye and rookie Markieff Morris are pulling down 5-6 rebs per game each.

The Suns are 4-2 for February and 3-1 on the road, but they got those wins by taking care of business against New Orleans, Charlotte and Milwaukee and squeaking out a win against Atlanta by shooting 11-24 or 46% from 3pt range. The two losses came at the hands of Houston. They stepped up their 3PT shooting in February to 38%, mostly from the shooting of Nash, Dudley and Morris, but Frye is always a danger if left unguarded.
Over the last 10 games the Kings and Suns are averaging 37.5% from beyond the arc while Phoenix holds a 44.5% to 42.7% advantage from the field. The Kings have a substantial advantage if they continue to play inside-out basketball. And, especially if they help defend in the paint to take away the advantage the Suns get from Nash’s play.

With the game almost sold out, I like the Kings chances to start another winning streak although it could come to a quick end in Chicago on Tuesday. If the Kings can keep the turnovers to a minimum like they did against OKC, this could be the first blow-out victory of the season.