FanPost

Player Comps for Tyreke

Hey everybody. For those who remember, I did a post that compared the impact of PER and age on team win outcomes. Reception of the work seemed very good here, so I would hope to contribute more in the future. In response to some commenters, I think I have thought of an improved way to measure a players' defensive contributions; but, that will take some more time. I plan to look over several years of data for that study. For the meantime, I did some player comps for Tyreke. Follow after the jump.

To start, I want to note that this is much less scientific than my last post here. Basically, I just thought through my head of some possible comparisons for Tyreke based on my experience watching basketball. Given that I am born in the 80's, most of my comps come from the 90's or 00's. I have refrained from current players (Derrick Rose and John Wall, for example) because we are trying to project from the first 3 years to a career. This is much easier when a career is over or close to over and we use hindsight. I tried to conceive the following player: a guard that is (1) high usage, (2) has all-around skills (passing, rebounding), and (3) could stand to improve in shooting. Because debate still exists as to Tyreke's position: a 1, a 2, a combo (1/2), or a combo (2/3); I have included a few of each of these. I made all comparisons on a cumulation of the players' first 3 years in the league. For simplicity, I ignore age.


I have purposely included players that I thought upfront were considerably better than Tyreke will turn out to be (Wilkins, Wade, etc.); players I felt were good comps (Stackhouse, Augmon); and players I thought would be worse than Tyreke (Miles, Davis). Looking at Per 36 & advanced stats...


First, Per 36 numbers. Sorted by Points per 36 minutes (highest first).


Player-----------FG-FGA-FG%-3P-3PA-3P%-FT-FTA-FT%-OR-DR-TR-AS-ST-BL-TO-PF-PTS
V. Carter-------8.7 18.8 0.460 1.3 3.2 0.395 4.7 6.0 0.775 1.9 3.5 5.4 3.5 1.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 23.3
D. Wilkins------8.9 18.8 0.471 0.1 0.4 0.262 4.6 6.0 0.765 2.9 3.8 6.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 2.6 2.4 22.4
D. Wade--------7.7 15.9 0.482 0.2 0.8 0.241 6.5 8.5 0.769 1.4 3.5 4.8 5.8 1.6 0.8 3.5 2.6 22.0
S. Francis------6.9 15.6 0.439 1.4 4.0 0.360 4.5 5.7 0.793 2.1 4.3 6.4 6.5 1.5 0.4 3.7 3.2 19.7
J. Stackhouse-6.1 14.5 0.418 1.0 3.6 0.292 5.4 7.0 0.766 1.5 2.2 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.9 3.4 2.5 18.6
T. Evans--------6.9 15.6 0.441 0.5 2.0 0.255 3.9 5.2 0.762 0.9 4.0 4.9 5.3 1.4 0.4 3.0 2.5 18.2
B. Wells---------7.2 13.8 0.517 0.4 1.2 0.358 2.9 4.4 0.659 2.3 4.0 6.3 3.5 1.8 0.4 3.1 4.1 17.6
L. Sprewell-----6.2 14.2 0.436 1.2 3.6 0.332 3.6 4.7 0.770 0.9 2.8 3.7 3.8 1.7 0.7 2.6 1.7 17.2
G. Arenas-------5.7 13.5 0.420 1.5 4.1 0.360 4.0 5.1 0.774 1.0 3.1 4.2 5.2 1.6 0.2 3.3 3.0 16.8
R. Mercer-------7.0 16.0 0.437 0.1 0.6 0.217 2.6 3.3 0.808 1.1 2.6 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.3 2.0 2.4 16.8
S. Augmon------6.4 12.7 0.500 0.0 0.1 0.118 3.9 5.3 0.727 2.5 2.9 5.5 2.8 1.8 0.4 2.4 2.4 16.6
T. McGrady-----6.1 13.7 0.448 0.3 1.1 0.284 3.6 5.0 0.712 3.1 4.8 7.9 3.6 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9 16.1
A. Miller----------5.7 12.7 0.452 0.2 0.9 0.245 4.4 5.4 0.812 1.3 3.3 4.6 9.1 1.5 0.4 3.1 2.9 16.0
D. Christie-------5.5 12.9 0.426 0.8 2.6 0.304 3.7 5.2 0.713 2.2 3.3 5.6 3.7 2.1 0.6 3.8 4.8 15.5
N. Anderson----5.9 12.6 0.473 0.2 0.8 0.300 2.7 3.9 0.679 1.4 3.7 5.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 1.8 2.0 14.8
R. Davis---------5.6 12.5 0.450 0.1 0.5 0.176 2.7 3.5 0.771 2.1 3.1 5.2 3.9 2.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 14.1
B. Davis---------5.2 12.2 0.421 1.3 3.9 0.324 2.3 3.7 0.629 1.2 2.9 4.1 7.2 2.0 0.5 2.7 3.2 13.9
L. Hughes-------5.1 13.0 0.396 0.3 1.4 0.202 3.2 4.3 0.742 1.5 3.0 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.4 2.3 2.4 13.8
J. Kidd------------4.9 12.6 0.387 1.2 3.8 0.323 2.5 3.6 0.691 2.0 3.8 5.8 8.9 2.1 0.3 3.4 1.9 13.5
D. Miles----------5.0 10.8 0.465 0.0 0.3 0.077 2.1 3.7 0.577 2.0 5.3 7.3 2.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.0 12.2
G. Payton--------5.2 11.1 0.469 0.1 0.3 0.157 1.6 2.2 0.723 1.6 2.4 4.0 7.0 2.4 0.3 2.5 3.7 12.1


Now, advanced stats. Sorted by PER. Interesting thought here. Gary Payton shows pretty unfavorably here. However, his win shares are high and he started on a team that went to the finals. Definitely, begs the question as to how limited the current stats are...


Player-----------PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg WS/48
D. Wade--------23.3-0.561-0.488-04.5----11.0----07.9----30.2----02.3---01.6----15.3----29.9---110----103--0.180
V. Carter--------23.1-0.542-0.494-05.9----11.1----08.5----19.3----01.9---02.3----08.8----29.3---112----105--0.181
A. Miller---------20.2-0.534-0.461-04.2----10.6----07.4----43.6----02.2---00.7----16.9----22.6---111----107--0.143
S. Francis------19.8-0.543-0.485-06.2----12.5----09.4----29.7----02.1---00.7----16.9----25.5---108----106--0.133
T. McGrady----19.5-0.507-0.459-09.6----15.6----12.5----17.7----02.1---04.2----12.8----22.4---106----104--0.120
D. Wilkins-------19.0-0.522-0.474-09.0----11.6----10.3----8.8----01.9---01.4----10.7----28.0---106----106--0.113
B. Wells---------18.4-0.559-0.533-07.8----12.8----10.4----17.2----02.8---00.8----16.3----24.2---105----100----0.137
G. Arenas-------17.4-0.533-0.475-03.4----10.4----06.9----27.5----02.5---00.4----17.5----24.8---105----108--0.094
J. Kidd-----------16.6-0.475-0.436-05.6----12.2----08.7----38.0----03.0---00.6----19.3----20.6---104----108--0.077
T. Evans--------16.5-0.510-0.458-02.8----12.8----07.7----24.5----02.0---00.9----14.3----25.2---103----110--0.067
B. Davis---------16.5-0.501-0.472-03.9----09.2----06.5----34.5----02.9---00.9----16.5----21.1---103----102--0.115
S. Augmon------15.9-0.551-0.500-07.5----09.1----08.3----11.5----02.5---00.8----13.8----20.3---110----108--0.114
N. Anderson----15.6-0.517-0.482-05.3----14.9----09.9----10.5----01.9---01.1----11.1----23.1---104----110--0.069
J. Stackhouse--15.0-0.527-0.453-04.6----07.2----05.9----16.4----01.6---01.8----16.2----25.6---102----112--0.046
L. Hughes-------14.8-0.462-0.407-05.5----12.0----08.6----17.6----02.5---01.0----13.3----26.1---95----104--0.045
L. Sprewell------14.6-0.530-0.479-02.7----08.6----05.6----15.4----02.2---01.2----13.9----21.7---106----110--0.074
G. Payton--------14.5-0.499-0.472-05.1----08.0----6.5----26.8----03.3---00.5----16.9----17.0---108----107--0.099
R. Davis----------14.4-0.500-0.453-07.0----09.7----08.4----19.7----02.9---01.0----18.3----22.2---95----102--0.059
R. Mercer--------13.5-0.480-0.440-03.5----08.5----05.9----11.6----02.1---00.6----10.4----23.5---98----107--0.052
D. Miles----------13.0-0.491-0.466-06.3----16.6----11.5----12.1----01.6---03.3----18.1-----18.9---93----104--0.038
D. Christie-------12.6-0.510-0.457-06.6----10.6----08.5----15.0----02.9---01.1----20.0----22.4---96----108--0.028


So, based on this, it certainly appears that Tyreke is still projecting to be a star at best and, at worst, a guy you want in your rotation. It is important to note that he does not project too differently than two of the stars on this list... Tracy McGrady & Gilbert Arenas.


Star Comp #1: Tracy McGrady... Eeerily similar shooting %'s. McGrady has a lot more vertical leaping ability and I think this shows up in rebounding and block rates. Therefore, I have little reason to conclude that Tyreke is going to McGrady. This is too high.


Star Comp #2: Gilbert Arenas... Arenas shoots 2% better (in TS%). That's it. This is due to Arenas' 3P% (.360). For perspective, that means Evans needs to make a total of 1 more midrange jumpshot (that he currently misses) per every 3 games. Evans could get there without an outside game, just a midrange game. Otherwise, Evans & Arenas are extremely comparable players 3 years into their respective careers. Their stat lines in both Per 36 and Advanced Stats are ridiculously similar. Important to note, however, that Arenas went on to improve A LOT!!! I remember watching him in his prime just takeover a game at ARCO. The guy would pull up WAY BEYOND THE ARC. Quite honestly, I can't lay claim to watching him enough at Golden State to speculate whether his shooting numbers here are due to (a) an undeveloped shot early in his career or (b) poor shot selection. Maybe, he just continued poor shot selection with the Wizards, but became good enough at making those shots to justify those 35 footers and off-balance fadeaways. But, improvement is pretty likely for Gilbert to get up around 28 (?) pts a game a few more years into his career.


Also, Tyreke is clearly not a high end point guard. Look at those assist rates by Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, and Andre Miller. Now, I see the tools to be a point guard of this mold. Big player who doesn't shoot particularly well. But, this type of player exhibits elite level floor vision and playmaking ability, which Tyreke has yet to show. He is, realistically, one of the best playmakers at the 2 and a poor to average playmaker at the 1. So, play him at the 2 and utilize this as a team advantage. Also, he is nice insurance as a fill-in at the 1. A statistical question that pops into my head here is this: is Tyreke really an exceptional passing 2-guard (as this data would suggest) or is his assist rate inflated by playing considerable time at the point. It may be interesting to watch his assist rate if he moves to the 2 (or the 3) in more of a full time role going forward.


So, interesting thoughts and conclusions. Tyreke appears to be a combo guard that should be played mostly at the 2. He has a floor (with no future improvement in shooting or BBall IQ) of Ricky Davis or Larry Hughes. Mid-levels comps include Nick Anderson and Jerry Stackhouse (fringe All-Stars) if he develops some outside shooting. There is a possibility he becomes an Arenas or poor man's McGrady. Those two stars, as good as they are, never led their teams out of the first round of the playoffs as the number one option. I think team management should legitimately be thinking that Tyreke is a number 2 player (at best) long term and really needs to think hard about whether he warrants that distinction in the pecking order. Tyreke as your 3rd best player going forward would be ideal, in my opinion, if it can be pulled off.


Would love to here feedback on this. And, as I said in the last post, would be happy to take on more analysis of this nature if it interests people.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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