FanPost

Consistency among Kings Part 1

The Kings are not a good NBA team. There is arguably lots of young talent on this team, but as of now, this is a bad, borderline dreadful team. Because of this, fans seem to blame everyone on the roster, which is mostly fair. What do we have in our players? What can we possibly get out of them? What should we expect?

In the past couple of weeks, I have noticed when talking about consistency, some people cite how many games x player has shot over 50%. In cases of low volume shooters such as Ben McLemore or Jason Thompson, this isn't really a fair way to evaluate. If anyone shoots 4/8, it's solid. If he shoots 5/8 (62.5%) it's great. If said player shoots 3/8 (37.5), it's bad. I find this too simplistic a formula to make any real analysis of, so Bam! Enter standard deviation.

For those who do not know or haven't done fun statistical math since school days, standard deviation measures the variation of a set of data points. In other words, consistency. I'll offer a brief explanation, but a quick trip to wikipedia may be more helpful.

Standard deviation is based around the mean, or average. All the data points fall on either side of this average. The percentage splits for standard deviation are 68%, 95% and 99.7%. This means 68% of the data points lie within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% land within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% of data lies within 3.

Normal_medium

via kermittheblog.files.wordpress.com

It's extremely unlikely for a player to average his exact average score. If someone averages 18.0 ppg, he likely averages something like 18.0375. If the player scores 18 points in a game, that falls on the lower 34%. If his standard deviation is 5.0, then 68% of the time he will score between 13.0 and 23.0 ppg. There is a 95% chance this player scores between 8.0 and 28.0 ppg. But what does all this mean??

I entered data for the top scorers in the NBA to find their mean and standard deviation. Remember, the smaller the standard deviation, the higher the consistency.

Player

Durant

Anthony

LeBron

Love

Harden

Griffin

Curry

Mean

31.62

28.16

26.98

26.57

24.54

24.28

23.89

Standard Dev.

8.08

8.29

6.93

7.73

8.70

7.06

8.94

Player

Aldridge

Cousins

Derozan

Geaorge

Gay

Dirk

Mean

23.91

22.73

22.71

22.63

22.03

21.5

Standard Dev.

6.79

6.90

7.76

7.61

8.38

6.34

Player

Irving

Lillard

Dragic

Thomas

Jefferson

Davis

Mean

21.37

21.24

20.59

20.57

20.47

20.76

Standard Dev.

8.46

7.83

7.69

6.89

8.39

6.18

Note: Rudy's stats are only from his King days. I also removed 1 game each from Gay, Davis and Cousins because of injuries and they played less than 10.5 minutes and results would be significant because they barely scored in that small amount of time.

What stands out to me? Isaiah Thomas and Cousins are very consistent. Because guards depend on the 3 ball, I'm not surprised players like Harden, Curry, and Irving are more inconsistent than post-heavy players like Cousins and Griffin. I'm very surprised by Al Jefferson's inconsistencies, as well as Anthony Davis, who at a young age is very consistent. LeBron and Dirk are savvy veterans, so it makes sense they would have a lower standard deviation.

I also did the rest of the King's players, which was rather painful.

Player

D-Will

Thornton

Thompson

McLemore

Jimmer

Outlaw

Mean

10.00

8.44

7.66

7.57

5.88

4.51

Standard Dev.

6.21

7.80

4.19

5.72

5.02

4.61

(Williams and Thornton's stats include only time spent with the Kings)

Quincy Acy has not scored more than 8 points in a game, and the guys we traded for Gay played in 18 or less games, so I figured we would just stick with these guys. Outlaw is as likely to score zero points as he is to score 9, in fact I counted 11 games where he played and didn't get a single point. Part of this is due to sporadic minutes, and part of this is because he's a pretty bad player who makes pretty bad decisions with the ball. Thornton's 42 point game really skewed his numbers, as well as a couple 20+ point games early in the season. Derrick Williams tends to score more points in a starting role, and I think in a normalized role he would have a lower standard deviation. As inconsistent as McLemore is, how telling a sign is it that he was more consistent than Jimmer and Thornton? Keep in mind this is just for points, it has nothing to do with minutes or shot efficiency.

Player

Carter-Williams

Oladipo

Burke

McLemore

Mean

17.11

14.03

12.52

7.57

Standard Dev.

6.75

6.68

6.05

5.72

It is much easier to have a higher standard deviation when the mean is higher. McLemore's deviation is fairly close to these other rookies, but he scores way less. If each player scores at the bottom end of 1 standard deviation, MCW gets 10 points, Oladipo gets 7, Burke gets 6 and Ben gets 2. Among other things, Mister McLemore needs to be more consistent. Hopefully that comes with his assumed increased playing time these last few weeks.

I will post another one of these soon comparing Kings players to similar players on other teams. It would be nice to get an idea of how inconsistent our players actually are, and outside of our semi-big 3, I'm interested in Thompson and McLemore.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker