(Consider this one of those "thinking out loud" scenarios.)

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald noted Wednesday that Shawn Marion's situation is a bit up in the air. He's due $17 million in 2008-09, but would prefer to get an extension this summer. Miami probably does not want to offer that extension, becuase it would all but negate their play to get cap space in the summer of 2009. They'd prefer to play the market in '09 to paying Marion now.

But again: Marion wants a contract. He won't take much less than what he makes now ($17 million), Jackson assumes (while noting his agent, Dan Fegan, is a notoriously tough negotiator). He could very easily ask for a trade to a team which will pay him.

Miami's best interest in that case might be to just ignore him and let the deal expire in the summer of '09 (or trade him to a contender at the deadline for expirings and a pick)... unless the Heat could get something back without taking on future salary obligations.

Imagine this trade: Marion for Ron Artest, Mikki Moore, Quincy Douby and Atlanta's 2nd round pick.

Sacramento agrees to sign Marion for three or four years beyond his final year of this contract for a flat $17 million per year. The trade allows Sacramento to resign Beno Udrih without hitting the luxury tax in 2008-09. (It actually gives them a few million to spare.) The luxury tax does become endangered in 2009-10, but the Kings will then have two sizable expiring contracts to pawn off at the deadline; salaries aren't tallied for luxury tax reasons until the last day of the season. (So you can start the season $4 million over the tax line and make trades to slide under by the end. Teams do this on a small scale every year. Denver's Von Wafer-Taurean Green trade was an example.)

Miami, on the other hand, gets something for Marion: a year of Artest, a year or two of Mikki Moore (immediately their best center), a look at Douby, and a mid-40s pick. (This trade requires Artest not to opt out, obviously.) Artest can either be treated as an audition next to Dwyane Wade and [Beasley or Rose], or he can be a placeholder expiring contract. Moore should start for that team; his benefit is that the team would only be on the hook for $2 million of his 2009-10 contract -- if he's cut in the summer of 2009, the team only owes $2 million, which is a $4.5 million savings on his contract. If you need him, you keep him. If not, cut him. Douby's a cheap prospect.

Miami saves money next year, Sacramento gets an All-Star power forward entering the end of his career. Can Udrih/Martin/Salmons/Marion/Miller with Hawes, Garcia, [2009's #12 pick], Shelden Williams make a little run? Probably not. Can they win enough to fill some seats and possibly make the playoffs? Absolutely.

The goal in any such endeavor would be: making sure you don't block Hawes or Williams, which would necessitate fewer minutes for Miller, trading Miller and starting Hawes, or playing Marion at some 3; limiting the number of years on Marion's extension; drafting point guard help (even in the second round) because you won't likely be able to afford an Anthony Johnson type backup.

I'm all on board for full-on rebuilding. But I don't think you have to set whole rosters on fire to do so. Marion's got plenty left in his tank; All-Stars aren't available for a relative pittance too often. He'd be the only All-Star you could afford (beyond what you have) until 2011, likely. It's a matter of whether you think that core (Marion, Martin, Udrih, Miller) can get anywhere, and if not whether you're willing to wait until 2011 to try again.

But there's no sense (to me) in burning something to the ground for the sake of a shot at a high pick one year. You can build for somethin' and win at the same time.

Hoopshype and other sources have Ron Artest's player option at $8.45 million. Sam Amick reported it as $7.4 million this morning.

It appears Sam's right.

That's an extra million of breathing room when it comes to keeping Beno Udrih, should Artest (or Mark Stevens, rather) actually pick up the option.

There's a problem with relying on imperfect information (I'm told Kenny Thomas' contract info is off as well) in deciding whether we like certain moves or not. I'm more guilty of it than anyone, allowing the salary cap stuff -- which we don't know for fact -- weigh so heavily in my basketball analysis.

But if Artest picks up the option, there's actually less posturing and guesstimating needed from us. Sure, questions about signing him beyond 2008-09 still persist, though made slightly easier from a salary standpoint as contracts begin to slide off the books and time allows Geoff Petrie more working room to make moves. If Artest picks up the option, we know exactly how much the Kings can offer Beno without tapping the luxury tax (the full midlevel, basically) and we can instead judge whether a) Artest and Kevin Martin are the right swing pair going forward, b) Artest is reformed (we have our suspicions about whether reformation is even possible, I imagine), and c) whether Beno is even worth the full midlevel.

Basically, one question is delayed. We can actually focus on basketball. That's music to my freaking ears, after the past week.

Here are the salaries committed for next season:

Available avenues for signing and re-signing significant players:
Midlevel exception: The team can sign any free agent(s) for all or part of the midlevel exception, which should be around $5.2 million. The deal must be at least three years in length, though only the first season must be guaranteed. This is the only way the Kings could sign Beno Udrih this summer, unless they drop more than $5 million in a trade between the end of their season and the day Beno is signed. The max contract which could be offered to Beno (or any other free agent not currently with the team and barring sign-and-trades) would be a five-year, $30 million deal (estimated). The rules allow 8% raises from year-to-year, so in the 5th year he'd make $7 million. Of course, the deal could start lower, and thus finish lower.

Bird rights: The Kings have Ron Artest's Bird rights, and as such they can pay him a starting salary of up to $16 million for a deal as long as six years. The total deal of a max contract is something around $120 million for six years.

There are no technical rules preventing signing both Beno Udrih and Ron Artest this summer. The only thing stopping them, beyond their own reservations: the luxury tax.

The Maloofs won't be paying for a luxury tax for a team which wins less than 50 games. My estimate would place the luxury tax level around $69 million.

Let's suppose Beno signs a deal for a portion of the midlevel -- $4 million is the starting salary. That'd put 2008-09 salaries at $61 million (assuming at least one second-round pick is signed for the typical second-rounder contract). The Kings could start Artest's contract at about $7 million per year with breathing room for necessary roster fillers (of the Justin Williams, Dahntay Jones mold).

Let's suppose Beno signs a deal for the full midlevel, which seems fairly probable if he keeps up his performance from the last two nights. Take another million off that flexibility in signing Artest -- you can start him around $6 million and feel comfortable with the tax line.

Do you think Artest is going to take $6 million a year to stay with Sacramento?

If the Kings decide they will make Artest an offer he'll sign this summer, they will either have to:

1. Trade current players to one of the four teams under the cap to clear space.
2. Not sign Beno and replace him with someone cheaper.
3. Pay the luxury tax.

Option #1 is difficult -- you can't trade for expiring contracts once all the expiring contracts have expired, and I'm not sure Philadelphia and Memphis are going to be beating down the doors for anything Sacramento has. Option #2 is untenable on two fronts: He'll be cheaper than any decent free agent option, and plugging rookies into the starting lineup is a frightful ordeal. Option #3 isn't likely to be on the table.

It's going to be really, really hard to keep Ron Artest past this year, if that's the plan.

It feels like you never left.

Use this thread for all the deadline day chatter. I'll try to keep the body of the post updated. For instance:

Amick at 7:30 a.m.:

He also says a Tyronn Lue deal (for a second or just trade exception cash) is likely.

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This means nothing in terms of what's going on today, but it needs to be posted (via TrueHoop):

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ESPN's Marc Stein doesn't think Linas Kleiza is getting traded, and therefore Artest is not going to Denver. He says there are rumblings w/r/t Philadelphia (?!).

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ESPN's Chad Ford confirms the Suns rumor (Artest for Atlanta's #1 and the Kurt Thomas trade exception) is in play from Phoenix's point of view. Depending on how Bibby works out, this could be a late lottery pick. The worst it could be is #18, with it likely falling #16 or #17 (those two picks are dedicated to the East's #7 and #8 teams). If they do tumble into the lottery, the pick'd likely be in the #10-11 range. I think, as of today, I'd prefer Kleiza and Denver's pick. But this isn't a bad option.

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Frank Isola of the New York Daily News mentions a possible Tyronn Lue-for-Fred Jones trade, which makes little sense because both are expiring contracts. I think the Kings would need a second-rounder back to consider this, since they have no need for either player.

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Update from Amick:

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More Amick (same link):

And the owner's kid went to college with Linas, so there's the belief it won't happen if there are any doubts from George Karl or Mark Warkenstein.

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Amick says Denver still has not relented.

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Thirteen minutes until the deadline, and nothing.

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Amick update:

Yahoo!'s Johnny Ludden (a longtime San Antonio Express-News beat writer) has the story:

Back to Denver.

I should also mention there's talk on two different message boards from seemingly legit sources: One says Petrie told Artest this morning he won't trade him unless he gets knocked over by an offer and will try to resign him this summer, and the other says Phoenix is offering Atlanta's #1 and its trade exception for Artest.

The latest from our man (in the sky) Sam Amick:

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: HOOPSWORLD says the San Antonio package would be Francisco Elson, Brent Barry (both expiring contracts), and multiple picks. I'd prefer Kleiza to multiple late picks.

Sam Amick has an update on where things stand with regard to the assumed dance partners. Here's a slice:

Basically, Denver wants to keep Linas Kleiza and Houston wants to keep Aaron Brooks. Those are dealbreakers for Geoff Petrie.

There's a bit of new information in Amick's post too, that the Kings approached Houston about Artest and that Houston returned the call. HMM.

UPDATE: It looks like San Antonio's offer is also expirings and a pick (same link). My updated preference of the talent you assume Petrie is targetting from these three teams:

Though if Scola comes with Brooks, it'd be hard to deny that one.

(My one problem with Splitter: You can't evaluate him until he comes over, which would be this summer at the soonest. There's also the chance he signs another big Spanish contract, a la Fran Vasquez or [possibly] Rudy Fernandez. Of course, it is moot so long as San Antonio hasn't put him on the table.)

DO NOT BE SEDUCED BY HIS FEATS OF AWE AND HIS AWESOME FEATS!!!! DO NOT LET HIM IN!!! RESIST! RESIST!!!

(Ahem. Jesus Christ this dude can play.)

Heading into the final three days of trade rumors for the season, Sam Amick lays out the parameters with regards to Denver:

I'd prefer Kleiza to Denver's draft pick. But I wouldn't shriek in horror if it were the draft pick which came back instead of Kleiza.

Of course, I'd really prefer both. Not sure that option's on the table (and, in fact, rather doubtful it is).

And if you're still of the opinion Artest should be kept, read this.