Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

by louismg on Dec 30, 2006 12:45 AM PST in Numbers

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Tonight, the Kings' 14-game win streak against the LA Clippers came to an end.

While I could simply point to the fact the Clippers had a higher FG% (49.3% to 42.1%), a higher 3PFG% (40% to 20%) and a higher FTM% (86.7% to 78.8%) as factors leading to the Kings' inevitable loss, and jaunt back to my earlier comments that the team which has fewer field goal attempts (tonight it was the Clippers' 73 to the Kings' 76) is actually winning a higher percentage of Kings games (17 wins to 9 losses so far, trust me), tonight's deep data dive looks at the Kings' seeming inability to shut down their opponents in the third quarter. It's a very disturbing trend - one we've all noticed, and the stats actually back it up.

Tonight, the Clippers beat the Kings by 9 points, but they actually outscored Sacramento by a full 10 points in the third quarter alone, after a fairly even first half. It was the 7th time this season where the Kings were outscored by 10 or more in the 3rd quarter, more than all other quarters combined.

NO. OF GAMES WITH 10 POINT MARGIN QUARTERS

TEAM	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Kings	3	3	1	3
Opponents	4	0	7	2

When the Kings are outscored in the 3rd quarter, they lose big. On the season, the team has been outscored 750 to 692 in the 3rd quarter, for a 58 point deficit. In contrast, the Kings have in aggregate outscored opponents by 39 in the 2nd quarter and 22 in the 4th quarter, and are running a deficit of 15 points in the opening period.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS SCORED: BY QUARTER

TEAM	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT
Kings	674	655	692	663	6
Opponents	689	616	750	641	8

% OF TEAM POINTS SCORED: BY QUARTER

TEAM	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Kings	25.1%	24.3%	25.7%	24.6%
Opponents	25.5%	22.8%	27.7%	23.7%

For a team who on the season is fairly well matched on offense and defense, both scoring and giving up 99.9 points a contest, the third quarter meltdowns are alarming. On only one occasion, on December 10th, against the hapless Atlanta Hawks, did the Kings outscore their opponent by 10 or more points in the 3rd quarter.

In the 7 games where the Kings were outscored by more than 10 points in the 3rd quarter, the team lost 5 times, and won twice (at Utah on 12/14 and at Denver on 12/22). In all 5 of those losses, including tonight, the 3rd quarter provided the margin of victory.

Something is wrong with the team's halftime speeches or buffet. If team isn't coming out of the locker room ready to play, they're toast. A five game swing could obviously make the difference between a last-place squad and one challenging for the playoffs. Think about it. These third quarter collapses have occurred in more than one of every four games. We know the drill. Do the coaches and players know this is a problem?

As always, feel free to poke and prod the stats to your heart's content. You can find the fully updated Kings 2006 Stat Database, with new features, including the quarterly breakdown, here: (Download Now)

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Comments

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

I have no beef with those stats. They are extremely alarming. Even the Kings have improved their play to start the game which wasnt the case last month. Don't discount the Philly game either, the Kings let a hapless Sixers team drop 31 on them in the 3rd quarter. The defense hasnt been a 48 minute affair, just 36. I dont think there are any excuses for their 3rd quarter woes, simply because they were just in the locker room maybe getting their wind back or something. This is very alarming trend and we can all see how many ballgames it has already cost the Kings. Im going to be paying extra attention for the 3rd quarter since the Warriors are a high-flying ballclub.

by kingme18 on Dec 30, 2006 7:25 AM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

Your concern for 3rd quarter play is on the mark. But there never seemed to be a time in last night's game where you felt like the Kings were in control and going to win. I think it is an attitude thing also. The opposition doesn't panic or get desperate because they know that regardless of the score early, they will be in the game when it gets late in the game. And most of the time they are. They are geared to peak in the second half of the game and that may just be inherent in pro basketball or when they play a team like the Kings. It use to be that was how the Kings played also. But if they do step it up after the break, the Kings just don't have the manpower to match them. Particularly when they play back to back.

by Observer on Dec 30, 2006 8:25 AM PST 0 recs

Thanks for the breakdown, louismg.

This isn't entirely new. In the past couple of seasons, there have been two related and reused phrases in my house: "Ohhh noooo! Third quarter coming!" and "The best way to beat the kings is to spot them 10 points." The latter phrase is probably worthy of it's own "Stats Corner" on swings, breakdowns and runs.

This year began looking like it was going to be the first quarter that was the 12 minutes of doom. At any rate - the Kings need to learn how to all play 48 minutes.

Anyone also notice that we can't seem to start or finish a quarter cleanly or come out of a timeout well? I have been wondering about why that is an issue. Ends might be due to fatigue? Starts might be due to the guys not understanding the plays? You tell me - it isn't like the other teams arn't in the same boat. Coaches like Nellie and Avery scream their heads off, even when winning, when they draw out a play and the players botch it. No fear of correcting mistakes on the court whatsoever.

One point to look at for tonight is that GSW can't play 48 either. They will fall apart at some point but have the discipline (and wrath of Nellie) to get them back on track.

by pyro on Dec 30, 2006 11:21 AM PST 0 recs

Heya!

Hi Tom! Just wanted to stop by during my holiday and see how you were doing! Hope all is well.

Todd

PS - Go Clips.

by Todd Lerner on Dec 30, 2006 11:59 AM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

my theory is a simple one, the kings get outscored more in the first and third quarters because of a poor game plan.

whenever they fall behind early they revert to kings basketball to catch up and when they catch up in the second quarter. at halftime muss reinforces the original game plan and players get frustrated hence horrible third quarters

by CrownUs93 on Dec 30, 2006 1:03 PM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

Makes sense but, common, how many more games into this do we need to see before it is fixed? Muss needs to find a new game plan at RCWilley. Gawd, I miss Rick.

by pyro on Dec 30, 2006 1:11 PM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

Please, enough of the second coming rhetoric about Rick A already. I will admit that when Muss came in I was excited at the prospect of a new suit to call time outs. But, as I look at their coaching styles, they are practically the same. A short rotation in the second half, appears to be the reason for the consistent third quarter meltdown. I also notice that bench players fall in and out of favor with the staff. If you put the game on mute, and never saw the new coaches, could you even tell that anything has changed except the players, and Bibby's shooting percentage? While it is fun to reminisce about the winning regular season records, I cannot forget about the post season disappointments that were as predictable as rush hour traffic.

by dccamp on Dec 30, 2006 2:56 PM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

One more thing - in the last seven games, this 10 point margin has happened in the 3rd quarter five times. I should have mentioned that.

12/14 vs. Utah (Deficit of 10) *
12/16 vs. Phoenix (Deficit of 12) *
12/18 vs. Dallas (Surplus of 3)
12/21 vs. Washington (Deficit of 20) *
12/22 vs. Denver (Deficit of 11) *
12/27 vs. Philadelphia (Deficit of 1)
12/29 vs. LA Clippers (Deficit of 10) *

Kings-obsessed. A's obsessed. More ramblings: louisgray.com

by louismg on Dec 30, 2006 4:18 PM PST 0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Kings Drawn and 3rd Quartered

Here's how to cure the third quarter paltry performances--play Salmons in place of Artest and Williamson in place of Thomas. Having Thomas and Artest (both poor offensive players--and Artest a frequent shooter and poor shooter) on the floor puts too much strain on the other three.

Has anyone noticed that we play well when Artest misses games? (Going all the way back to the last playoffs when he was suspended for a game.)

by aspen on Dec 31, 2006 8:40 AM PST 0 recs