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Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!

The Kings' up and down 2006-07 season is hitting new lows now, after the team's fifth consecutive loss Thursday night, in overtime against the Shaq-less Heat at Arco. The loss was exactly the type of game the Kings need to win if they are to challenge for the postseason this year, and as many of us here on the site have said, the team needs to show some serious discipline when it comes to shooting, or they're flat-out not going to win, period.

Approximately one-fifth of the way through the season, the Kings have amassed enough stats to show some basic trends, and we've crunched the numbers:

Skip The Analysis and Download The Stats

The Kings Are Not A Good Shooting Team

  • The Kings' field goal percentage is 25th in the league, ahead of only Houston, Miami, New Orleans, Indiana and Memphis.
  • In only two contests (vs. Memphis on 11/15 and at Seattle on 11/24) has the team shot above 50%. The Kings won both contests.
  • In eleven contests, including Thursday night, the Kings have shot below 45% as a team. In those eleven games, it probably comes as no surprise that they have gone 3-8 (.273). By simply raising their shooting percentage above 45%, the team has a 5-2  (.714) record.
  • It also should not come as a shocker that the team with the higher field goal percentage typically wins the game. When the Kings have a higher FG %, they have gone 6-2 (.750). When they have had a lower FG %, the team has gone 2-8 (.200).
  • This ratio gets even more crazy when it comes to 3-point field goals. When the Kings make a higher percentage of their 3-point shots, they are 7-2 (.778). When they make a lower percentage, they are a stark 1-8 (.111).
Shooting And Missing Is NOT The Answer
  • The Kings actually have a BETTER record (4-3) when they take fewer field goal attempts than when they take more field goal attempts (4-6). This speaks to picking the right shot, and making it.
  • Recognizing when to go for three is critical. When the Kings have attempted more 3-point shots, they are 5-5 (.500). When their opponents have hoisted up more 3-point attempts, the Kings are only 2-5 (.286).
Relying On Free Throws Won't Win You Games
  • The Kings have taken more free throws than their opponents in 14 of the 18 contests played so far. Yet, in those 14 games, their record is 6-8 (.429). When they have spent less time at the charity stripe, they are 2-1 (.667).
  • Yet, if you do get to the stripe, you better make your shots. When the Kings make a higher percentage of free throws, they are 6-5 (.545). When they miss a higher percentage of free throws, they are a woeful 2-5 (.286).
It Comes Down To Getting the Ball In the Bucket

There's no mystery here. By making a higher percentage of shots, that leads to a higher total number of shots going in, more points and more wins. But let's see what the numbers show...

  • When the Kings MAKE more shots than the competition, they are 7-1 (.875). That contrasts to 1-9 (.100) when they make fewer buckets.
  • From beyond the arc, if the Kings score more 3 point shots, they are 6-1 (.857). When outlaunched, they are 1-8 (.111).
Note how much more impact a three point shot has on the eventual outcome of a game when compared to free throws. It's night and day.

Yes, mixing math and sports can be dangerous. Sometimes the sample size is too small. But it's clear to me that the team needs to focus on making high-percentage shots, and taking the opportunistic three-pointer from pure shooters. It may be fundamental, but so far this season, other teams are getting it through their noggins a lot better than we are.

Want to come up with your own Sactown Stats? Download the Excel document I used for this post and let us know what you've found.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
I seldom agree with the post game pundits of national tv but I have to agree with Barkley that the Kings are going to have to start all over. The big three of Miller, Artest and Bibby is not something to build around. They are past their prime. They are going to have to bite the bullet, hold on to Martin, Price, Douby, Garcia and maybe Salmons and start rebuilding from there. As Magic Johnson said, they are not fast enough to keep up with teams like the Suns (Bibby cannot drive a team like Nash does)  and they can't play a half court game because they haven't got the tall people around the basket. They have no identity. They were lucky to get the game to overtime last night. It wasn't that they were winning, it was the Heat lost their momentum and were losing. When your go-to-guy is Artest, you are in trouble.

by Observer on Dec 8, 2006 8:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
"When your go-to-guy is Artest, you are in trouble."

I agree but unfortunately for us he's probably the only guy that can get his own shot in crunch time. Bibby needs a pick. Miller needs....ah forget it. Martin is quick enough but has below average handles and still doesn't seem to have a lot of confidence despite the good start this season.  Salmons or Price can probably get their own shot but aren't reliable enough shooters.

by Kusian on Dec 8, 2006 11:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
Another issue regarding the "big 3": they don't work well together.  Ron wants to isolate and go 1 on 1.  Miller and Bibby want to play the 2 man game or move the ball in order to get open jumpers. The Kings are better off doing the latter. But I doubt Artest is disciplined enough to stick to the game plan.

by Kusian on Dec 8, 2006 11:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
Even though he does not have a ring, Charles knows basketball, period.  The sad thing is, he was right when he said Sacramento does not have the horses to run what Mussleman wants to.  There is no dominant rebounder, a star point guard who is nursing an injury that has really hurt his stroke, and a defensive superstar/shutdown player who has the attention span of a little kid.  

As any coach knows, you have to build a system to suit the talent you have, not implement an overbearing system.  That why Mike Fratello has never won anything of note.  

Run and gun suits this unit, and the league is moving towards it with the death of the center.  When the Kings made the comeback last night, it was because they played fast and passed.  When they lost in overtime, it was because they played slow and one-on-one.

by Chris The Greek on Dec 8, 2006 1:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
"When the Kings made the comeback last night, it was because they played fast and passed.  When they lost in overtime, it was because they played slow and one-on-one."

Word!

by Kusian on Dec 8, 2006 1:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
Word x 2. Run. Pass. Move. Score.

I'm confuddled. I'm not the basketball guru that you guys are so could you explain something to me, please? There was mention of Muss starting the season with one type of offense and switching back to the RA type of offense. What are these styles called? Is the first Muss style more like Ron likes to play and the second (RA) more like Brad and Mike play? If so, how can you have our three main guys playing two different types of offense at the same time? Is that why it seems like Ron is on a different planet when he is out there with Mike and Brad and how will all of this effect the identity, leadership and the rest of the team's style?

by pyro on Dec 8, 2006 2:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
To be perfectly honest, I have no idea what sort of offense Muss was trying to install before going back to Rick's high post offense.  Seriously, think back to the early games: Did the Kings look much different than 5 really good athletes playing a pick-up game? I know that I'm using some hyperbole here, but they looked so out-of-sorts that I have no clue what they were attempting to run....and it's not much better now.

I can you one thing that pisses me off to no end: Artest monopolizing the ball, doing all that useless dribbling while the rest of the guys stand around watching. I watched Webber do the same crap for years. Back then we were good and Webber didn't always do it so we got away with it for the most part.  Won't work now.

by Kusian on Dec 8, 2006 4:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats Corner: Want to Win? Make Shots!
do you think this is whats making the team suck so bad.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=oqXuFAkBqIc

by CrownUs93 on Dec 9, 2006 3:41 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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