Let it ride my friends (with extra theoryball)

by clutch on Apr 11, 2006 6:36 AM PDT Comment 5 comments

[editor's note, by TZ] From the diaries. I have some concerns about next season, which I get into inside the comments. -TZ

Topic of conversation, what to do when the glass slippers fall off (aka, this summer)

Let the biased calculations begin!

The Kings are a commendable 23-13 since Artest joined the team. 21 were road games (10-11), 15 home (13-2).

We can divide 82/23 to get ~2.27. Using that number to expand the season to a hypothetical record if artest was here all along. This comes out to a 53-29 or 52-30 record (23 x ~2.27 = ~53, 82-53 = 29). Which would put us in a race with phoenix for the division title (this year).

With that theoretical record in hand lets say the team stays exactly the same for next year, from coaches, to players, etc. I would say we can add 3 wins for Artest being in shape (when he arrived he hadn't played more than 10 or so games in a year and a half), 55-27. 1 win a piece for garcia and martin improving, 57-25. and 3 more wins for the continuity and chemistry of a set roster going into training camp, 60-22. Oh, and lets adjust the original theory season record to account for equal home to road games with our standard home winning clip. 25-11 x 2.27 = about 57-25, re-adding the "improvement wins", 57+8 & 25-8 = 65-17. A record only challenged for best in the league by Detroit.

Now, would I put money on this record being correct at the end of next season? Hell no. With the unpredictability of the NBA (injuries, addictions, catastrophic global warming, etc) you can never predict it accuratly. This essay of a post is just my way of saying, "Hey, this team ain't half bad guys", and anyone who is ANYTHING but optimistic about next season is ludicrous.

Thoughts? Predictions? Adjustments? Math Majors?

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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My qualms..

Let's go with three.

Rick Adelman. My money is that he doesn't come back. Depending on the coach, the offense could suffer. Any team with Mike Bibby and Brad Miller needs offense to win.
Ron Artest. Could his value get any higher than in this offseason, especially if the team makes a run in the postseason? The smart business move would be to trade him, especially if a new, Rick Carlisle-like coach is coming in. (Not saying I support this...)
Amare Stoudemire. Yeah.

And how about one more?

4) We've had the luxury of an All-Star coming off the bench since February. One of Shareef and Kenny will not be here come November. That's a problem for our front-court depth, which is otherwise nonexistant.

by Ziller on Apr 11, 2006 6:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree with all of your qualms

Plus the possible loss of Bonzi means that the success or failure of next year's squad is difficult to quantify at this point.

IMO, #2 is the Supreme Overlord of all Qualms. Does anything scare you more than "Off-Season Ron-Ron"? How about "Bored Off-Season Ron-Ron"? I'm not sure there is a collection of words that can inspire as much fear, besides maybe "we need Pedro Feliz to carry the team this season".

Ron is already showing some big flashing warning signs. If we can get him through the playoffs without any explosions, his trade value will probably be as high as it can get.

Fudpucker's Sports and Political Blog

by otis29 on Apr 11, 2006 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problems

I've got my own problems with this theory:

Bonzi Wells won't be in Sacramento next year. Kevin Martin has the potential to be very good and everyone knows it. Bonzi is gone and so are his defense, rebounding and low post skills. I don't see how the Kings get better without Bonzi.
Artest has been great since he's been in Sacramento, but past history says that he's going to punch a monitor/fan/grizzly bear sooner or later.
TZ's points number 1 and 4.

Based on nothing but conjecture and minus Bonzi, Adelman and Shareef, I see the remaining team (with a little more bench depth) winning 45-48 games next season.

by Carl on Apr 11, 2006 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ludicrous!

Ludicrous I say!

...Well, not really. Points well taken, here's my take:

TZ is right, RA probably isn't going to be back after next season. Either the Maloof's are already set on not resigning him, or he's going to be too proud to come back.

I would say, however, that the chances of Wells comming back are better than Carl thinks. He's 30 (at least, I believe), and would probably take a MLE or even just a portion of it. Of course, that is, if Petrie and the Maloof's decide to give it to him. This has probably been his best year ever if you factor in reputation since moving to Sacramento.

The KT vs Shareef thing is worrysome for me. 'Reef is obviously a better (more importantly, consistant) player than Thomas. And the way Kenny plays, it seems he's a perfect bench/energy guy. But do I see Shareef geting traded instead of Thomas if it came down to it? no way

Lastly, the big one, Artest being moved. Why would the Kings even consider this? Well, I'm pretty biased on this one, because I think Ron's cleaned up his act for good. But, I do have to think... when is the last time we went through a season without a huge trade... and who's up for next seasons blockbuster...

PS. more theoryball guys! If we don't use our MLE on bonzie, and trade Shareef/Artest (with other players to match salaries probably) who are we getting back?

by clutch on Apr 11, 2006 12:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ehhhh....

I will definitely kick myself in the near future for even positing this, but...

Artest, Shareef and Potapenko for... Kevin Garnett?

I know, shoot me now. But I've been thinking for the past month or so that a peaking/sane Ron-Ron is nice bounty for a superstar. And if there's one superstar available this offseason, it's probably KG.

Shareef is a freaking deal at $5.4M next season, and not a poor replacement for The Ticket. Potapenko is a salary filler - he's not in any plans in a Sac jersey.

This could also help with the whole Kenny Thomas on the bench thing. I mean, being stuck behind a guy who has never been to the playoffs and can't rebound is one thing. But who's going to complain about being Kevin Freaking Garnett's backup? Or, you could start KT at the three.

Bonzi is clearly not in Sacramento's plans, unless Petrie is gone or something happens to Martin or Garcia. And Bonzi has said he wants one last big paycheck as his career winds down. $32 million over 5 years probably isn't it.

You'd have to fill the following roster spots out with the limited remaining dollars: backup point (since Price isn't likely ready for Petrie's tastes - though maybe Garcia could fill both backcourt backup positions a la Reef in the frontcourt this season), backup PF/C (not Reef II, but someone to take the load off KG), and a backup swing. One of those can likely be adequately addressed in the draft - the team's pick will be right around #18. Without Bonzi, the midlevel would be available.

New rotation:

PG - Bibby-?-Price
SG - Martin-Garcia
SF - Thomas-?-Monia
PF - Garnett-Williamson
C - Miller-?-Sampson

The ? behind Miller would be the most important. With something decent there - even Skinner-level decent, though cheaper - I think you have a solid club. And you keep KG the hell away from Kobe. The salary number, before the ?s are filled, is $59M, $1 million higher than this season. Finding a team for Corliss would really be important in order to rationalize paying for a midlevel big or swing. (Paying a starting swing could make KT that third big, being the PF while one of KG or B-52 was the center and the other rests.)

I'm going to go hide in the corner now. Don't kill me too quickly. (And yes, I love theoryball. Don't tell the kids at RealGM.)

by Ziller on Apr 11, 2006 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs