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2007 Projections: Kevin Martin

As far as I know, community projections are nearly unanimously a baseball thing. Google can't find me one instance of organized basketball fan communities projecting what their favorite players will do in the upcoming season. But baseball? Millions of results.

Here's the idea: we each project, predict, or guess what each player will do this season. The collection wisdom of many people who have watched these players and thought carefully about their performance is supposed to be greater than one person's guess. Towards the end of the season, we can come back and see how we did, and even who did best.

We'll start it off with Kevin Martin. Here's the last two seasons of data for him:


       MPG   PTS   REB   AST       FG/eFG/TS%
2005    10   2.9   1.3   0.5   .385/.406/.464
2006    27  10.8   3.6   1.3   .480/.540/.604

His points, rebounds, and assists per game aren't going to triple again - that was a function of the big minutes increase. But Martin should get another boost in minutes and a substantial boost in his shooting rate (or, how often he shoots). He could be the third scoring option in the starting lineup, depending on a) how Brad Miller figures into Eric Musselman's offense, and b) what happens at power forward. Bonzi Wells was the "third option" last season with 12 shots a game. (Mike Bibby was tops with 17 shots a game, Peja/Artest served as the second option with 14 and 16 shots a game respectively.) Martin took 7.5 shots a game last season, and only played an average of 5 minutes-per-game less than Bonzi.

I don't think his rebounding or assist rate will dramatically improve - he doesn't fit the bill of a janitor or facilitator on this roster. There are plenty of ballhandlers, and hopefully the frontline can reverse last season's guard-dominated rebounding game.

Can the shooting percentages stay up? (Those percentages up there are vanilla field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. Each one tells you something important. I've talked about them at length before, but visit Basketball-Reference's glossary for more explanation.) Martin was near the top of the league in true shooting last season, thanks to his above-average shooting from the field and his above-average foul-drawing and foul-shooting abilities. His foul-drawing strength will buoy his advanced shooting numbers so long as the rulebook favors quick guards who infiltrate the lane, so I can't see a freefall from 2006.

All that said, here's my guess:


       MPG   PTS   REB   AST       FG/eFG/TS%
2007    34  16.5   4.7   1.7   .475/.535/.598

Let's hear your guesstimates.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
Here are my predictions:

         MPG   PTS    REB   AST   FG%
KMART     32    18    5.5   3.5   .467

All the other stuff is for the birds

by evanmeagan on Sep 27, 2006 12:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
i hope he can average 15 points. But I'm much more interested in seening him rack up assists and rebounds. I'd rather he be a versatile player rather than just an athletic shooter.

Stats I want to see:

FTA
FG% (48+%)
3FG%
ASTS
REBS

by kingme18 on Sep 27, 2006 9:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
nice predictions

by evanmeagan on Sep 28, 2006 8:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
MPG   PTS    REB   AST   FG%
40    18.5   6.2   2.5   .455
 

by Kusian on Sep 28, 2006 2:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
I think many will focus their attention on    Kevin's scoring.  He can shoot from all areas and Musselman has been working all summer with Kevin regarding his ability to become a slasher--somewhat like D. Wade.  If it works, Kevin could average in the low 20's, espedially since he is a good free throw shooter. Rebounds--around 5, Assists--around 2.

by aspen on Sep 28, 2006 3:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Projections: Kevin Martin
My guess is that he'll be right around here after the first month or so:
PPG   RPG   APG   MPG   FG%   3%   PER
24.9  5.1   2.2   38.1 .545  .490  27.0

by jgurney on Nov 29, 2006 11:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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