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Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Games?

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For a change, Stats Corner isn't full of pessimism, trying to show you yet another way the Kings are going out of their way to lose. Instead, I wanted to dive into the numbers and discuss the importance of a weapon the Kings aren't very well known for - their 3 point shooting. While we may wince at ill-advised threes from Artest (did he call glass against Houston?) and Bibby or others, you might be surprised as to the impact the team's shooting from beyond the arc can have.

The Kings are 16-23 on the season, good for a .410 winning percentage. Not exactly awe-inspiring. But did you know that in the games where they make more 3-point shots than the competition, even if that margin is by a single bucket, they are 10-2, so far, the best indicator of whether or not they will win the game, according to our database. Adding on, when the team shoots for a higher percentage of 3-point shots, they are 13-4.

THE IMPACT OF 3-POINTERS ON THE GAME
  KINGS WINS KINGS LOSSES Win %
Kings Make More 3-Pointers 10 2 83.3%
Kings Have Higher 3PFG% 13 4 76.5%
Kings Make Fewer 3-Pointers 4 19 17.4%
Kings Have Lower 3PFG% 3 18 14.3%

Conversely, when they make fewer 3-point shots, the Kings are a jaw-dropping 4-19. When they trail in 3-point shooting percentage, the situation is similarly woeful, tallying 3-18, good enough for a .143 winning percentage. That's like losing six games for every time you win one.

Unfortunately, as a team, the Kings are not a good 3-point shooting squad. They have made 31.4% of shots behind the arc, while opponents have successfully sunk 36.4%. Given the above win/loss margins and the fact the Kings are regularly beaten in this category, it's no surprise that they have lost as often as they have.

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Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
Hey, Louis my answer to the title: is NOT this year.

But hopefully when you mean win you mean "lose" or come behind in the standings.  

by kingme18 on Jan 24, 2007 12:21 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
All I know is that as the number of games goes up, so does the sample size, and it's very interesting to see how the 3-point state is correlated to the team's record. Any time you see how widely those results are, it makes you think.
Kings-obsessed. A's obsessed. More ramblings: louisgray.com

by louismg on Jan 24, 2007 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
I wonder whether the won - lost results would be about the same if some other criteria was used (turnovers, free throws, rebounds, points in the paint, two point shots, etc.)

 

by aspen on Jan 24, 2007 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
Kings score 100+ 9-8
Opposition scores 100+ 3-18
Kings hold opposition under 100 13-5  
Kings lead in FG% 12-6
Kings lead in rebounding 6-6
Kings have fewer TO 10-14.

Shoot efficiently, play defense, and make more three pointers than your opponents... and you win.

 

by Mityt on Jan 24, 2007 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
Thanks Mityt--good stuff! It's looking more and more like the cardinal coaching principle might be, "Make baskets and prevent the other team from making baskets."

by aspen on Jan 25, 2007 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
Aspen, a lot of won/loss data is available in the full Excel sheet.

Everyone's free to download it. In those cuts I've used, the 3-point data rises to the top. Of course, I don't expect it's perfect. For instance, you could say we win 100% of the games where we outscore our opponents?

http://www.louisgray.com/files/kings_shooting_06.xls

Kings-obsessed. A's obsessed. More ramblings: louisgray.com

by louismg on Jan 24, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner
Psst... Hey Einstein. It's not really news that making more 3-point shots than the other team is a good indicator of whether you're gonna win. Don't quote me on this, but I'm pretty sure that in basketball the team that scores more points wins.

by tizzyrules on Jan 24, 2007 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner
Tizzy, appreciate the insight. I'll make a note of it.
Kings-obsessed. A's obsessed. More ramblings: louisgray.com

by louismg on Jan 24, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner
Come on, your first post and you come out like that?  Weak.

Take a looksie here sunshine:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatoff&league=nba&sort=3pm&order=true &season=2006

Of the top five teams in threes made per game last season, three of them didn't make the playoffs.

Try again, k?

by otis29 on Jan 24, 2007 4:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner
Also, note:

#12 - Miami
#21 - Dallas
#30 - LA Clippers

Funny, I remember those teams winning quite a few games last year, even though they were probably outscored from the three point line fairly often.

by otis29 on Jan 24, 2007 4:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner
I dig Stats Corner, louis.

Boston has the 4th best 3P% this year? Wow. Gerald Green at the ripe old age of 20 is looking good as a trade candidate.

by pyro on Jan 24, 2007 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Stats Corner: Pssst... Want to Win 80% of Game
Mike Bibby for Theo Ratliff and Delonte West + 1st rd. pick???

by kingme18 on Jan 24, 2007 11:27 PM PST reply actions  

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