Sacramento, Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

by Ziller on Nov 26, 2007 10:24 AM PST in Commentary Comment 14 comments

In the poll I executed (lethal injection, natch) yesterday, 65% of the respondents predicted the Kings would win one or two of the next five home games. Two things: 1) How sad. 2) Sactown Royalty readers are smart.

Using a formula we've looked at here before and developed by Ed Kupfer, I delved into the win expectancies for the home stand. As expected, it's not gorgeous. As records stand today, the Kings will be favored in only one game -- the closer against the Clippers. Even that margin is incredibly slim -- the formula gives Sacramento a 50.6% likelihood of winning that game.

The formula uses team expected (Pythagorean) winning percentage (which is based off points scored and allowed, and has been found to be much more descriptive of a team's prowess than straight up winning percentage), a factor for home court advantage, and factors of days of rest. Following are the percentage likelihood's the formula gives for each game.

Opponent Sac's Likelihood
San Antonio 16.2%
Golden State 48.6%
Houston 33.7%
Utah 20.2%
L.A. Clippers 50.6%

When you add the probabilities, you end up with 1.6 expected wins during the stretch -- which means guesses of one or two wins are reasonable.

Yes, going 3-2 would be a remarkable achievement. Going 2-3 would be better than expected. Do you ever feel you've been abducted in the night and transported to a place which reeks of vaguely familiar death and desperation?

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Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

I think whether we win 1 or 2 games depends on how well Kaman plays for the Clippers. If he has a monster game, then I think we will go 1 out of 4. With the exception of GS, all the other teams have big men (PF or C) that will destroy us regardless of what combination of big men we throw in there.

Hopefully, we catch total fire offensively in a couple of these and, perhaps, steal one. I'd be very happy with 2 wins. Personally, my goal is winning the games we should (or at least ought to be very close). So, as you show, those games are GS and the Clips.

Man, the first part of our schedule has been brutal.

by Kusian on Nov 26, 2007 10:49 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sacramento, Where...

Sacramento, where throw back means throw up.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Nov 26, 2007 11:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sacramento, Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimisti

To dvr or not dvr a potentially bad blowout that is the question.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Nov 26, 2007 12:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

How can our team possibly win against the San Antonio and Utah when they must battle ALSO our HUNDRED TOUSAND DOUTING FANS?? It is absolute science and phuysics that you cannot do your running and shoots with in your HEAD douts and feelings of failures. Are we TRYING to ruin our KINGS? I want us to do THREE things: (1) stop DOUTING our Kings! (2) stop supporting the three-women ways of Justin! and (3) start giving all of our FAN CHEERING to good hopes and LOUD SCREAM FOR BIG SHOTS and no more of this KITTY CAT MEWING ABOUT BAD SOUNDING STATICTICS! Are we strong men who know to fight our way out of tough battles or are we beaten-down cattles without hopes or strong BACKS??

by Brother Hedo on Nov 26, 2007 12:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

Are you purposely misspelling doubt?

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Nov 26, 2007 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

Is he purposely destroying the English language?

by Kusian on Nov 26, 2007 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

Are you both purposely destroying this post comment?? Thank you very much for your English lessons and I will try very hard to remember, but can you please try very hard to remember what is BEST FOR THE KINGS??

No mistakes here and thank you very much!

by Brother Hedo on Nov 26, 2007 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

Brother Hedo, while I admire your enthusiasm and positivity, I am confused about your comment regarding Justin Williams. Are you saying that if we support Justin Williams we are automatically in support of his lifestyle? Does that mean that if I root (in an enthusiastic and positive nature as you recommend) for Ron Artest I automatically support animal abuse and domestic violence? If we are to be supportive as you suggest, does that not mean support of all of the Kings, or do we kick Artest and Williams off the team because they do not measure up to your (or our) standards off the court?

Additionally, is it not OK to poke fun at those things that would otherwise drive us insane? Is it not better to laugh at K9's(woof's!) inability to finish around the basket and Moore's cement-like hands as opposed to turning a blind eye until one day we fall prey to human combustion?

In closing, I point out that no matter how positive I was and no matter how hard I rooted The Kings could still not buy a made free throw in game #7 of the Western Conference Finals in 2002. Therefore I am of the belief that my comments here on this site have absoultely no bearing on The King's play or their front office dealings. If I am mistaken about that, I can only say -

TRADE K9(WOOF!)!!!TRADE K9(WOOF!)!!!TRADE K9(WOOF!)!!!

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Nov 26, 2007 3:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

i'm all for positivity, but saying that a fans negative comments on this site cause a team or individual to play poorly is the same as thinking if you leave your door unlocked someone will enter your home (sure it'll make it easier), the point is if something is meant to happen it's meant to happen.

otherwise, welcome to sactown royalty - where finding new and inventive ways to criticize our bigs is priority one

Whether your dominating the playground, the last one to leave the gym, or your big time like Mike Bibby...

by CrownUs93 on Nov 26, 2007 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Too much with NEGATIVE talking!!

You are clearly the jester of catch phrases sir.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Nov 27, 2007 3:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

Well, technically, there should be a comma after "here" because you've written a compound sentence. But, hey, I understand your fundamental point: GO KINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you for helping keep the proper focus, Brother Hedo!!!!

by Kusian on Nov 26, 2007 2:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

I've got a NICE BIG COMA FOR YOU HERE IN MY PANS, smart guy!! That's what I think of all your English lessons! And I don't even bother having wife check this one for mistakes!!

by Brother Hedo on Nov 26, 2007 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

I am so glad you didn't have your wife check this one.

No seriously, welcome to here. We don't think we hold any real sway on the individual psyche of Kings players. That section214 cracked a joke about Mikki's hands aren't likely going to cause another Mikki turnover tonight. I'm all about positive thinking, but I'm also all about Grape Nuts. I'm not having Grape Nuts for dinner.

by Ziller on Nov 26, 2007 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sacramento, Where a 2-3

Jeez, looks like I was about the only person to say that the Kings would go 4-1 on the homestand. This is a lesson for all the youngsters. See what happens when you drink and blog.

Damn you Robert Horry!!!

by chupacabra on Nov 26, 2007 4:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs