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Mythbusters: Kevin Martin's Not Clutch?

I keep hearing people say Kevin Martin needs to step up, needs to be more clutch, needs to take the game by its haunches and.... You know.

To me, it looks silly, all this "Kevin's soft" and "Kevin's not clutch" and "Kevin's not the second coming of Christ." Two of those three statements are inaccurate; the third is questionable. Thus, the first ever edition of Mythbusters: Sactown.


Assertion #1: Kevin Martin disappears in crunch time.

Test: Does Kevin Martin take fewer shots than normal in crunch time (defined as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team leading by more than 5 points)?

Answer: No. According to 82games, Martin takes 19.8 FGAs and 18 FTAs per 48 minutes of crunch time -- or about 0.57 shots per minute. In all Martin's playing time, he takes an average of 15.2 FGAs and 8.4 FTAs per 48 minutes -- or about 0.39 shots per minute. Clearly, he is more aggressive in crunch time.


Assertion #2: Kevin Martin chokes in crunch time.

Test: Does Kevin Martin shoot worse in crunch time than overall?

Answer: No. Kevin's crunch time eFG% is .534. His overall eFG% is .523. He shoots better in crunch time than usual. In fact, the .534 crunch time eFG% is higher than those of: Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade ... and it is .005 lower than LeBron James. Kobe, Melo, Roy, Wade and LBJ are all considered clutch. Martin's clutch shooting exceeds those of the first four and is half-a-shot lower than the other. So how is Martin not clutch?


Visual evidence Kevin Martin is not "soft" nor a "choker" who "disappears."


Does anyone need some more evidence, or can we retire this myth?

0 recs | Comment 35 comments

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Lay it to rest
Bury it six feet deep and place the headstone - "Here lies the Kevin's not clutch myth. He who promotes such a myth lies as well."

This guy is so much better (offensively) than the next best guy on the team (take your choice), and he has hit some big shots at a relatively young age, especially when you take into account how long he has been a starter.

I'm a season ticket holder no matter what. Kevin Martin helps justify the expense.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Feb 11, 2008 3:57 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trade em', trade em' all!
This one time on trade machine.....

Kevin Martin is the best thing to happen to this here franchise since the Webber-Richmond trade. Given the opportunity as the main offensive weapon, Kevin prove his worth as an elite shooting guard in the league.

Good work TZ, I will run off a cliff lemming style with you any day.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Feb 11, 2008 4:09 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This one time? On trade machine?
Where you at bandcamp?  When you found the trade machine?

Funny guy.  And I agree with the serious part of your post, although I refuse to follow TZ off a cliff, lemming style.

Until maybe?  Next year?    

God bless you, Corliss. You always played as though you knew how expensive my tickets were. -section214

by KK on Feb 11, 2008 7:51 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think that peope say he disappears
Because he has this thing where he'll go for 17 in the first quarter and then have the nerve not to finish with 68.

He's plenty clutch, though.  I was at that S.A. playoff game.  Never gets old watching it again.

"Yankees Giants Giants Yankees Giants Giants Giants. Yankees."

by Grant Napears Taint on Feb 11, 2008 4:11 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

YES
I think you are dead on.
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Feb 11, 2008 4:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Finally
TZ, thank you for putting that together.  It's obvious that Martin IS clutch.  A player does not ahve to be a ball-hog chucker to be clutch.  Martin proves that point.

Also, thank you for giving us a reason to watch that clip against the Spurs in the playoffs.  Sitting in bed with the flu, I needed that.

Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Feb 11, 2008 4:54 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i wonder...
what are the shots per minute for all the kings players during normal and crunch time? and what are the eFG%s for all the other kings players during normal and crunch time? just to get an idea if we have someone who starts shooting more in the crunch time regardless of their drops in percentage (bibby?artest?)

by kingsfaninjapan on Feb 11, 2008 5:04 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes
I'd say this information would be necessary to draw any conclusions. TZ?

by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 12, 2008 7:04 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well
82games.com has everything. I can try to pull it together later, but it's all there already.

by Ziller on Feb 12, 2008 8:42 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mythbuster A Victim of Bad Stats?
TZ, I hate to burst your bubble, but you might need to rework that "mythbuster" theme regarding Kevin Martin's crunch time exploits.

I think you made a mistake, because the stats you cited for crunch time are per 48 minutes while the overall stats are per game.

Martin averages 36:47 minutes per game, so if you convert that to per 48 minutes, you'll find he takes 19.8 shots per 48 minutes. In other words, he takes exactly the same number of shots in crunch time as he takes overall.

You also neglected to mention that Kevin shoots 79.3% on free throws in crunch time vs. 86.2% overall.

I also came up with different free throw numbers than the ones you offered. I show from the same pages at 82games that he averages 11.2 free throws per 48 minutes overall and that jumps up to 19.8 free throws per 48 minutes in crunch time, which makes a lot of sense since he's the guy we want to have shooting free throws down the stretch if we are protecting a lead.

As you indicated, he does shoot slightly better in crunch time, making an extra 11 shots per 1,000 attempted over his regular output.

I'm still trying to find those 4th quarter scoring numbers. 82games emailed me back and said they would probably do something on that soon, but my guess is they would limit that to the top 10.

I know based on the link to the top 10 in 4th quarter scoring that I posted yesterday that may have prompted your "Mythbuster" that he averages less than 5.3 points in the fourth quarter, which means his average in the fourth quarter is less than his average in the first three quarters.

I did get the game recaps from BasketballValue.com's download page and am in the prcocess of manually figuring out his fourth quarter scoring. That will probably take me a few days, but those play by play logs are definitely interesting in any case. It's in a text file that you download after clicking the link "All 2007-2008 data." The text file is called playbyplay200802120658.txt.

They also have a couple of text files with their player stats rankings based on their version of plus-minus. It's an easy cut and paste to Excel for sorting as you wish.

Doing that, I found Kevin Martin ranks 132th out of 184 NBA players who have played at least 1,000 minutes this year. Brad Miller ranks 3rd, while Artest is 37th.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 12, 2008 1:24 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice work...
Coolcat..Keep me updated on how all that goes..

TZ, I have never been one to say that Martin isnt clucth. However, I have seen him become completely isolated from plays late in the game. True, this could be his teammates fault for not getting him the ball (as many on STR have stated). I, however, feel that as the MAN (he didnt get that extension for nothing) on the team, he needs to be able to take control of the game and NEVER find himself isolated from crunch time possesions.

Kobe, McGrady, Joe Johnson, Lebron, Wade, Melo ect ect.. are all swingmen who DEMAND/TAKE OVER during the final possessions of crunchtime. I hope Martin can one day (very soon) become that type of player who everyone knows WILL get the ball everytime down for the last minute or two of a tight game, but right now he just isnt. And I'm not discounting his amazing late game heroics you posted on the front page. I just dont see him take control of games late like I believe he is capable of doing.

However, dont confuse my opinion stating that he sometimes allows himself to become "isolated" from the action with saying that he isnt "clutch". 2 completely different things! (This could possibly be the root of the confusion concerning the myth??????)

by Hoops916 on Feb 12, 2008 10:28 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kings Crunch Time Stats
Player    CrSh    OvSh    Cr%    Ov%
Martin    19.8    19.8    53.4%    52.3%
Artest    19.1    19.2    53.4%    47.6%
Udrih    17.8    16.2    69.6%    49.5%
Bibby    15.2    19.2    75.0%    45.5%
Garcia    13.8    17.3    45.2%    51.0%
Miller    13.0    14.0    33.3%    48.2%
Salmons    12.8    15.8    63.0%    53.9%
Douby    10.2    18.3    50.0%    54.5%
Moore    7.2    9.9    50.0%    54.5%

Average    14.3    16.6    54.8%    50.8%

I know this doesn't line up well, but I haven't figured out how to post a spreadsheet to a blog. Maybe someone can give me a clue.

I've used eFG% to be consistent with what TZ posted.

It's interesting that Martin is the team leader in shots per 48 minutes of crunch time as well as overall time. Udrih is the only player on the team who takes more shots in crunch time than overall time.

In fact, the Kings' top nine players overall average almost 21 shots less in crunch time per 48 minutes than they do overall. Maybe this is because there is more working the clock down. Maybe they commit more turnovers in crunch time. I don't know how this compares to other teams.

Overall, Martin ranks 41st in the NBA (or slightly lower) in shots taken per crunch time.

Sacramento, Indiana and Charlotte are the only three teams in the NBA without a player who averages at least 20 shots per 49 minutes of crunch time. Many of the top teams have two clear crunch time players to carry the load.

This is Martin's first season as the team's crunch time shot leader. Compare this to last season:

Bibby: 24.9
Artest: 18.4
Martin: 17.0

Notice Bibby's numbers are way down this year. The changing of the guard is happening, even if it's at too slow a pace.

I am going to step back here and say that I have been too hard on Kevin Martin. At the same time, I think it's fair to say he's still an emerging star. He's not in the same conversation with the game's greats yet, and it's equally unfair to put that burden on him at this point and anoint him as something he's not based on his potential and pretty awesome offensive production thus far.

Will he grow into that player? This is only his second season as a starter, and the team is clearly in transition from being Bibby's team to being Martin's team.

I agree it's time to clear the decks and see what we have. I don't think we will truly know how good Kevin is or can be until the other main options are gone and we give Kevin Martin a full season to show what he can do as The Man. Next year will be Kevin Martin's showcase season.

The only other question I have is whether his body can stand up to major NBA minutes. His best two games where he looked freshest were his first two games back from injury, where he played about 28 minutes a game coming off the bench and scored more than a point a minute. It's also worth noting that Artest and Bibby did not play in those two games.

Since returning to the starting lineup, he has slowed things down and seems to be pacing himself. I am eager to see if he can regain that extra gear and still play more than 35-40 minutes a game.

We probably won't have the luxury if we deal Artest and Bibby, but playing Kevin as a sixth man could be the ticket down the road. Food for thought.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 13, 2008 8:33 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good stuff
thanks for the research, and info. Rounds out TZ's article well.

I'd conclude that Kmart is not a choker and is in fact clutch, but he is also not the "go to guy" yet during crunch time.

This, defense and assists are areas where I'd like to see further growth in the coming years.

by Kfan in Korea on Feb 13, 2008 12:39 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Top Crunch Time Shot Takers
Shots Per 48 Minutes of Crunch Time James: 37.0 Bryant: 34.2 Cassell: 31.2 JCrawford: 30.5 Gordon: 29.8 Anthony: 29.4 Wade: 28.8 BDavis: 28.3 Turkoglu: 28.3 McGrady: 27.8 Arenas: 27.7 JJohnson: 27.1 JTerry: 26.6 Roy: 26.5 Paul: 26.4 Redd: 25.6 Nash: 25.6 Durant: 25.6 Bosh: 25.4

by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 13, 2008 8:43 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow, great article
I expect to see this linked from TrueHoop tomorrow. TZ, you rock!

by Kfan in Korea on Feb 11, 2008 5:37 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

crunch time
I just wish he could have figured out how to guard Ellis in "crunch" time the other night. But that's the other side of the ball....

Nice post, TZ.  He has cleary shown this season that he wants to take the big shot. This is his "break out" year in terms of on-court demeanor. I definitely prefer it to years past.

"Let's go home" will forever be one of my favorite Kings quotes.

by Kusian on Feb 11, 2008 5:57 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i love that
"let's go home" quote.  that has to be one of my all time favorite celebrations for a game winner considering it came from such a quiet and reserved guy.  although he is talking a lot more and on the bench he seems to be the one making all of the jokes with bibby.  he's hella funny when he talks with peaches and jerry after the games too. he's not afraid to rip into any of his teammates.  oh yeah by the way, he is becoming one of the top 7 best players in the league.  i can't wait until we get back on top of the west so the whole nation will see this great specimen.  i think i speak for all of StR, I LOVE KEVIN MARTIN (in a basketball sense).
when will the Kenny Thomas Reign of Terror end?!!??

by diehardkingsfan5 on Feb 11, 2008 7:15 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Let's go home"
is infinitely preferable to chest beating and ron-ilepsy.

Plus, you don't get T'ed up for having some class.

I love SpeedRacer! Even though I am sometimes frustrated by him.  I loved him for calling for(demanding) the ball in the Utah game, I hate when he defers to Bibby and the Full Glass of Crazy.  

God bless you, Corliss. You always played as though you knew how expensive my tickets were. -section214

by KK on Feb 11, 2008 7:57 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

great article
I love the shopped pic of cartoon you mythbusting, priceless.

by moproblemz on Feb 11, 2008 6:44 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like it too actually--one of the many
things to like about this post.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2008 2:04 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Math is fun!
... and it is .005 lower than LeBron James. Kobe, Melo, Roy, Wade and LBJ are all considered clutch. Martin's clutch shooting exceeds those of the first four and is half-a-shot lower than the other.

.5 is 1/2 a basket lower than LBJ.  .005 is the amount of basket you get from licking the ball.

Isn't it?  Could be my math is off though...no offense intended.

Either way, Pookey's link to the HTML required to quote and bold made me happy!  Yes, Pookey, we do read and pay attention to you! Thank you!  I'd been looking for this information.  

Muchas gracias to TZ for hosting the site and for his insights.

Hey, TZ I was reading ballhype earlier and read about the book The Last Hoop, it made me really want to buy and read the book, will you ever get into those kinds of topics here?

Just from reading the description it reminded me of where some players come from, especially given the recent Spree news.  Another big and frustrating talent but maybe not so hard to understand when you get to know some of the background of where they come from.

I can't begin to know the pressure they face from a young age.  Or the shortcuts they were offered either.

I was a juco basketball player who barely got off the bench, my sister was a recruited softball player a million years ago and I saw the things (shhshh "job" she didn't have to go to, the classes she was excused from, the free tutoring (but only enough to make her eligible), her ahem excesses that were excused) she was offered.  None of those things helped her as an adult, and none of them got her a degree after five years of playing ball (redshirt freshman year).  It has to be 20 gazillion bazillion times worse for male athletes today. It was at least a billion times worse for the male athletes at just a low D1 school back then.

The really sad thing is, we come from a middle class family, which is more than a lot of these guys come from, but she and our parents believed all this crap hype (for a female sport that STILL doesn't offer a pro career).  I really can't imagine how much more these guys are offered with so little hope of succeeding and how much their families must depend on them or how much their families defer to them as their best hope for making all of their lives better.

Over the years, I've worked off and on with a woman who's a single mother but she comes from a strong middle class family and she earns +75K a year (and gets around 15k in child support for this child).  Ever since her son was born she has pursued this dream of a professional athletic career for her son.  She considers it her personal retirement plan.  I find that very sad and wonder how her (now 15 year old) son feels about it.          

ADD post.  Sorry to anyone who read it all the way through.  

God bless you, Corliss. You always played as though you knew how expensive my tickets were. -section214

by KK on Feb 11, 2008 8:52 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good post
While your post hits on many points more important than this... I love your signature.  That is one of the best Kings quotes I have ever read.  Did Corliss even get signed by anyone this year?
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Feb 11, 2008 9:03 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, no payday.
I thought he retired? He was looking for a three year deal, and no one was taking. Then I heard he was going to wait till the season drew out and see which team needed a veteran presence (I personally was rooting for Boston to pick him up). To tall you the truth, if the rumored trades happen, wouldn't mind having him around as a guiding force.
Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! - LPA

by iashwash on Feb 11, 2008 9:06 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Section 214
Once again, I give credit to Section 214 for the quote.  I don't know which of his many great posts it came from, but I know it hit my heart so I grabbed it.

Corliss is an assistant coach at Arkansas Baptist College this year.

I think he formally announced his retirement, but if he's still on a roster he might get his Joe Klein payoff which he richly deserves.    

God bless you, Corliss. You always played as though you knew how expensive my tickets were. -section214

by KK on Feb 11, 2008 11:03 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your forgiven
The eFG% is .534, which is 53.4%, which means that for every 100 shots he and Bron take, he misses half a shot that Bron would make. So that .005 is actualy .5%. Percentages are weird.

As far as basketball skills not equaling real life skills, start a Diary, especially if you start reading a book. It's an interesting topic, one that deserves more attention than the side-handed remarks at the end of a completely different article. Thanks for bringing it up, you make some good points. Worried that kid'll put too much pressure on himself to succeed, and thus doom himself to fail.

Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! - LPA

by iashwash on Feb 11, 2008 9:04 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thank you!
So, basically TZ said something I didn't understand?  

We pretty much said the same thing?  .005 is .5% is equal?  I just don't understand basketball stats, so I will go try to learn.

I like math, but this confused me so I think I need to spend more time reading basketball stats before I comment again.  Thank you for pointing me in the right direction without ridiculing me.  

As far as starting a diary on the topic of child athletes, I think 27freethrows has much deeper knowledge than I will ever have. I know what I saw growing up, I know what my sometime co-worker is doing and I abhore(sp?) it.

But once I've read the book, The Last Shot, I might have some commentary.  My "knowledge" is peripheral, it's only based on female recruiting and how excessive it was 20 years ago for a minimal sport, I have only anectdotal evidence of the male recruiting perks from that time.  Trust me on this, my sister bitched about what her male baseball player peers were getting that she wasn't.  I'm not blaming this on the system, she COULD have graduated if she'd gone to class, but she believed in her hype and the school enabled her, there was no way to convince her that she needed to be grateful for the scholarship and go to class. Again, this was a long time ago, for a minimal sport yet the school aggresively recruited her and perked her. WTF?  I suspect she was shocked when she didn't graduate (no, I know it).            

God bless you, Corliss. You always played as though you knew how expensive my tickets were. -section214

by KK on Feb 11, 2008 11:36 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, we said the same thing .005 = .5%
Two ways of proving it

.5% means .5 per cent, which means .5 for every century (100). So for ever 100 times it happens, it happens .5 times. Thus, there is an implied division by 100 when a percent sign follows a number. Therefore, .5% = .5 divided by 100 = .005

If you take a hundred shots, and you made 1 basket, you made 1/100 of your shots, or .01 - which is 1%. Half of .01 is .005, and half of 1% is .5%

Told you percentages are confusing.

Mikki Moore in the skills challenge! - LPA

by iashwash on Feb 12, 2008 12:28 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Umm
Thank Prada & Jake for posting it where anyone can find it and Grizz from Blogging the Boys who wrote it. For what it's worth I'm always happy to pass stuff along though.
I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Feb 12, 2008 2:17 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TZ
I just noticed that your 'Melo link links to Bryant's 82games page.

by Kfan in Korea on Feb 11, 2008 9:33 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He is
Clutch but he doesn't have that hunger to be the guy who wants the ball at the end of the game. Gracia loves taking the big shots, he wants to have the ball when the game is on the line. Same thing with Salmons and Artest. Don't get me wrong martin is great but sometimes i rather have garcia or salmons with the ball in the end.
GO KINGS !!!

by maiku on Feb 11, 2008 9:40 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No
There's no evdidence of this lack of hunger, man. He takes tons more shots in crunch time than usual, like all the league's stars.

by Ziller on Feb 12, 2008 8:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It looked to me
In the Clippers game's final posession like Artest was supposed to get the ball to Martin to take the shot, but took it himself. Martin was open outside the arc and it looked like he was expecting the pass to me.

I might be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me to know that Bibby didn't inbound it to Martin, or that Artest didn't get him the ball like he was supposed to.

There was time.

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Feb 12, 2008 9:16 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dont want to be called dramatic nut...
I see that too.  Didn't notice it at game time, but thanks to Tivo, I see it.  It looks like Bibby threw it to Ron as a first priority, but Kevin sure looked like he was expecting the ball.  Whether or not he was, we'll never know.
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Feb 12, 2008 4:33 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's baaaack?
Bizarro Ziller, is that you?
(from BallHype )

by jgurney on Feb 12, 2008 9:26 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Aah
For the good of mankind, let's hope not.

by Ziller on Feb 12, 2008 10:59 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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