Tank Talk

by section214 on Mar 17, 2008 1:11 PM PDT in NBA Draft

There has been a little thread commentary lately recommending that we "tank" the rest of the season in order to improve our draft slot. Sadly, these efforts would yield little in return.

Currently, we are 5 games ahead of Indiana, who occupies the 9th spot. We could lose the rest of our games and it might not be enough to "catch" the Pacers. On the other hand, we are 4.5 games clear of the Blazers, who occupy the 13th spot. Therefore, the only teams that we could reel in by tanking would be (currently) Atlanta or New Jersey (11th slot, 2 games "ahead") and Chicago (10th slot, 3.5 games "ahead"). The Hawks and Nets are currently tied for 8th and 9th in the East, so one of them would be a playoff team and one would be a lottery team.

As you can see, a tank job would yield no more than two draft slots, and that's assuming that the Bulls and Hawks or Nets win their share of games down the stretch.

That being said, I would love to see a lot more of the youngsters down the stretch. If that means Miller and Moore rest a little more so that Hawes and Williams can get some more minutes, I'm all for it. I'd like to get Douby a little more burn, too. But I will still steadfastly root for the Kings to win.

Our last 16 games include 10 against playoff bound teams: Warriors(2), Spurs(2), Rockets(2), Wizards, Lakers(2) and Hornets. We also play the Nuggets one more time. All of these teams are fighting for playoff positions right now, with the Warriors and Nuggets fighting for their very playoff lives. Wouldn't you prefer knocking someone out of the playoffs or home court advantage as opposed to (maybe) moving up a slot or two in the draft? Wouldn't you rather see another game like we saw last week in Los Angeles as opposed to watching K9(woof!), AJ and Lorenzen Wright play?

Item last - The Celtics and the Grizzlies tanked down the stretch last year. Ask Boston and Memphis teams how their efforts to improve their draft seeding worked out for them.

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Comments

Longtime lurker, first comment

Nice analysis on "taking." Thanks for crunching the numbers so that the rest of us don't have to. I agree that there's not much the Kings could get out of losing a few more games on average; however, I still think that one or two spots up could potentially make a difference on draft day. Nothing but good could come out of having another option when you're in a rebuild--you want as many things helping you out as possible.

Of course, you never want the team to lose. The problem with some rebuilding teams is that you end up with a culture of losing and you can never break out of it (see Hawks, Clippers, etc).

No, my ideal vision of rebuilding is similar to what you outlined above. Play the kids, and tell them to play hard. If you lose a couple more games because the vets are seeing less minutes, well at least you've got a shot at a better pick because of it. And if the kids start actually pulling off some wins? Great--because that's the whole point.

I disagree, however, with your assessment on Boston's off-season. No, the Celtics did not get Oden or Durant. But they did get a high enough pick to snag Ray Allen, which in turn convinced KG that Boston would be an acceptable destination and he approved the trade. Think Boston fans are really unhappy with the way it all turned out?

by LPKingsFan on Mar 17, 2008 1:28 PM PDT reply actions

The Celtics

Agreed on your comments regarding the Celtics. My comment was restricted to the fact that they tanked games and wound up with the 2nd worst record but the 5th pick.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Mar 17, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

That's better than the 3rd worst record

but the 6th pick, or the 5th worst record but the 8th pick.

I still don't think we should tank, but having a worse record is always better for the draft - more ping pong balls and a better guaranteed spot.

by Kfan in Korea on Mar 17, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

karma

Yeah, tanking worked out so well last year. Boston recovered due to what was considered at the time to be a shady deal, then the Lakers decided to show us what the definition of "one sided deal" really is.

I think people make too much of the draft. While it's important, I think we've been drafting decently where we have bene for a while. If this season didn't make it painfully obvious, where we need work is trades. I get the feeling the story of this season will be trades we didn't make as opposed to our draft position.

Muff rules. http://vegaskings.blogspot.com

by Muff209 on Mar 17, 2008 1:52 PM PDT reply actions

For me...

I don't think this as much of a product of getting nice draft picks or whatever but this is more being frustrated with the direction of the team and wanting something to get excited about. With the exception of Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes, there is almost nothing to get excited about in terms of the future growth of the team or even the present. If the team were winning on a contending for championships I'd say the developing of young talent wouldn't be as important. This Kings team seems like its stuck in the middle.

Let's just say I just miss staying up a 2 o clock watching Brad Miller face guard Kevin Garnett in the waning moments of Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals or watching Peja and Mike draining three after three's for a shorthanded Kings against the Lakers and people saying wouldn't it be nice if the Kings and Lakers met up in the Conference Finals again. Heck I even miss it when the Kings choked in the playoffs, albeit painful, but that was the beauty of expectations in the postseason and just having the expectations of being champions excite me.

I want to win sooner rather than later. I want to get some young prospects that can carry us into the future. I don't see a sign of a clear direction. I see a franchise that doesn't have purpose. GP repeatedly says he wants to rebuild the team and get some young players but then he stays with Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas, Ron Artest, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and then sign Mikki Moore to a three year deal. Granted some of our veterans are untradable but from the outside looking into the Kings franchise, I don't see a sense of direction like the Mavericks who traded their young point guard for Kidd in an attempts to go for it or Boston dealing its young players and nabbing KG and Ray Allen. Or even Seattle, just pawning off veterans like Kurt Thomas and Wally Szczerbiak for expiring contracts and draft picks.

Quite frankly, our young players haven't been all too impressive. Francisco, while he's shown marked improvement is what he is,a role player. John Salmons is a guy that sulks when he doesn't get the minutes he deserves and quite frankly feels he is entitled to. Quincy Douby while is just in his second year has shown to quickly that he's a spot shooter like Salim Stoudamire.

Call me pessimistic or whatever, but the outlook isn't too impressive and we need some luck in the lottery this year to turn around what has been a painful two years for the team.

The NBA Lottery: Where fans turning against their favorite team happens.

by kingme18 on Mar 17, 2008 2:06 PM PDT reply actions

Two words: Kevin Love

We need a big man who can bang right? And here in Sacto we love big white dudes who can pass, right? And this guy's only 6-9, so he's gonna go lower than expected.

But reality check: 6-9's not too undersized for a power forward.

But really, if we get a solid big man not named Roy Hibbert, I'm Happy.

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by thashizzz on Mar 17, 2008 2:24 PM PDT reply actions

Amen, Brother Section!

As much as I'd love to have a franchise-changing draft pick, I don't any available from 8-12, which is the range we're talking about.

I also think it would be bad to get our young guys used to shrugging off losses. If these guys are going to be our team for the foreseeable future, a winning mentality is going to be invaluable.

And the idea of playing spoiler makes me all tingly.

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Mar 17, 2008 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

Spoilers

Spoiling both the team's future and the other team's playoff position makes me tingly too.

The NBA Lottery: Where fans turning against their favorite team happens.

by kingme18 on Mar 17, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't get it

How, exactly, do you see us spoiling our future?

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Mar 17, 2008 2:43 PM PDT reply actions

I think he means...

"Spoiling our future" 'cuz' there's less ping pong balls being lower in the draft.
I don't see it that way. i think the young players need to win, & I'd like to see us do to all the other playoff teams like we did the Dubbs. That would make me reallt tingly.

but yeah, I'd take kevin Love.Think of the Beach Boy tunes at ARCO & his uncle at half time.

by Rhondda Nunes on Mar 20, 2008 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Kevin Love

His stock is pretty high right now, and unless he tanks during the tournament, he'll go WAAAAY before we have even the possibility of taking him.

Barring, of course, an incredibly lucky bounce of the ol' ping-pong balls. That would REALLY make me tingly.

But we gotta be careful. Too much talk about the women of StR getting tingly might completely alter the conversation on this site.;P

TickTickTickTickTickTick

by LeaguePassAddict on Mar 20, 2008 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions

The Women of StR

Sounds like a centerfold. Has SI approached you guys yet?

by coolcatreportdotcom on Mar 20, 2008 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions

LaSalle Thompson was...

...one of my favorite players.

Pau Gasol - serial killer or drunkard?

by otis29 on Mar 17, 2008 2:46 PM PDT reply actions

Wait, wait, wait...

Oh, Tank!

Nicely done, otis. I only had to read it three times.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Mar 17, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions

LaSalle Thompson

Made Chuck Norris wet himself.

Pau Gasol - serial killer or drunkard?

by otis29 on Mar 17, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Otis is one a role

by Kusian on Mar 17, 2008 4:59 PM PDT reply actions

i meant "on" a role.

Nice post, Section.

I think Kingme makes some really good points. Anybody with a rebut to make me feel a bit better?

by Kusian on Mar 17, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply actions

Nope

The only way the season doesn't end up with leaving a sour taste in my mouth is the following:

Ron Artest stops playing
Kevin Martin doesn't get 20 shots a game to end the season
The Kings don't spoil the Dubs/Nuggs playoff chances
Hawes/Williams/Douby don't get significant playing time
Reggie Theus has to fight with Ron Artest with the media still

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 18, 2008 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions

The Draft is The Single Most Important Factor....

...without question. I think where Petrie has gone way off track is by not realizing this and placing too much emphasis on signing mid-level guys.
Two big features of drafting players vs. signing vets:

In the draft, you get a young player without prior NBA experience to mold to your system and learn from your veterans first, not just about basketball but about being a young, wealthy, popular professional and the traps that can you can fall into. Veterans come with their own baggage and expectations of their roles.

The rookie salary cap has ensured that these players are extremely cheap by NBA standards for several seasons (3-4 right?) before their rookie deals expire. This can be tremendous value for a franchise (see K-Fade this season at what, 1.2 million or so?). If this franchise needs anything, it's positive value for its money. We have so much dead money on this team its not even funny.

We have been "drafting decently", I suppose (though Douby was a terrible pick IMO and I nearly cried when we pulled the #10 spot). The key is getting up there in the order to where you don't think about just drafting decently, you think about choosing between future stars. Stars come early in the draft mostly. Kevin Martins come 1 or 2 per draft.

Are the Maloofs trying to make Sacramento hate the franchise?

by discocricket on Mar 17, 2008 5:54 PM PDT reply actions

Good post Section

I think this has been an exciting season:
-Even with a ton of dead weight, the Kings beat nearly every team going to the playoffs and I don't think they had the same five starters for more than two of those games (didn't fact check this one so I might be wrong; but you get the gist).
-We didn't have to watch the Poodle or the Growling Munchkin (musselman).
-Theus's candor with the media has been refreshing. We actually HEARD what was happening in the locker room instead of relying on Voisinesque speculation.
-Good Artest was around A LOT
-Miller has trade value again
-The Kings are rid of Bibby. (One down four to go)

So yeah, we're not going to make the playoffs so now we want to do whatever it takes to get the next Amare Stoudamire (or the current one for that matter.) But we also have three new young talents on the team (Udrih, Williams, and Hawes) and Speed and El Flaco. If we can get nothing else out of the rest of the season I'd hope that we can support the continuing improvement of Speed's game (who theus is working with to make a better player and so what if Speed is chucking up more shots now--let him experiment. I bet it makes him a lot better in the long run) and let's root for the continuing improvement of these five playing together.

In regards to Boston, quite frankly I don't like the town or any of their teams. And I think there is no less dignified way to win a championship than to buy your way to one. They bought two thirty plus year old All Stars with draft picks and a bunch of young talent that had to scrap every game to bring Boston fans a modicum of excitement. Did they get any love for that effort? NO. Management cleaned house. Sorry, I'd rather root for an organization that gives people second chances and gives over-achievers a chance to grow than an organization that pays mercenaries to win them championships. How much more sweet would it be to be in the stands at Arco for a Championship Series rooting for a team of guys you've seen go from 2pts/season to twenty?

Tank. Don't tank. It's irrelevent. Just play.

by NYCFan @ Sactown Royalty on Mar 18, 2008 6:37 AM PDT reply actions

Kevin Martin

I'd like to see him develop a pullup jump shot going to his right. Right now it seems like he has five shots.

Set shot from three.
The foul-drawing runner.
The weave-through-traffic fast-break lay-in (my personal favorite).
The fadeaway going left off a left-handed dribble or catch.
The windshield wiper backdoor lay-in (i'd love to see a ton more of these between Martin and Miller).

If he could add that Rip Hamilton shot, he would be unstoppable.

Disclaimer: This post may be a complete and utter waste of your valuable time.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Mar 18, 2008 11:47 AM PDT reply actions