With the 12th Pick in the 2008 NBA Draft

by Ziller on Mar 2, 2008 9:03 AM PST in NBA Draft Comment 30 comments

I see few scenarios in which the Kings pick something other than #12 this June.

As background for those unfamiliar with draft and lottery "seeding": All playoff teams pick from #15-30, from worst record to best. So a #8 seed from one of the conferences -- whichever #8 seed has the worse record -- will always pick #15 (unless they trade the pick, but that's neither yon nor yonder). #16 goes to the next worse playoff team, and so on.

Picks #1-14 go to the non-playoff teams. The order isn't set until late May, when the lottery is held. The worse your record, the more entries in the lottery you get. Only picks #1-3 are up for grabs. If the #14 worst team in the league manages to get the #1 pick in the lottery, and the #1 and #2 worst gets picked #2 and #3, then basically everyone from #3 on moves down a spot. The lowest the worst team in the league can pick is #4; second worst team gets at least pick #5, etc. For the #12 worst team in the league, the lowest pick would be #14, since #15 begins the playoff picks.

Now, on to this season.

The disparity between the conferences has really mucked things up. The #9 team in the West will be in line to pick #14, with a minuscule chance of picks #1-3. This team is projected to have upwards of 47 wins. The #8 team in the East, who will pick #15 with no shot of a top-3 pick, is projected to finished with roughly 37 wins.

But here's where it gets the Kings. Here are the projections:

#14 -- the West #9 (likely Golden State, Denver, Houston, Phoenix)
#13 -- Portland, currently 31-28
#12 -- Sacramento, currently 26-32
#11 -- East's #9 (likely Atlanta, New Jersey, Washington, Philadelphia, Chicago)
#10 -- East's #10
#11 -- East's #11
#12-#1 -- everyone else

It is really unlikely the Kings catch up to even Portland, who has 4-1/2 game on the Kings and will play out the season with the core of a team who went on a 14-game winning streak this season. And it's unlikely the Kings will falter so much they finish worse than the East's #9 team, which is currently 2 games behind Sacramento. It's incredibly unlikely the Kings would fall behind the East's #10 (currently Chicago).

Basically, Sacramento is locked in as the #12 worst non-playoff team in the league this year, with an outside chance of becoming the #11 worst non-playoff team in the league.

Here are the chances of the #12 worst non-playoff team getting a top-3 pick:

#1 Pick: 0.7%
#2 Pick: 0.8%
#3 Pick: 1.0%

There would be a 2.5% chance to get a top-3 pick. Since the odds are even lower for the #13 and #14 worst non-playoff teams, it is highly unlikely the #12 team's status would change. Basically, the #12 worst non-playoff team is highly likely to pick #12.

Since the #12 worst non-playoff team is likely to pick #12, and Sacramento is likely to be the #12 worst non-playoff team, Sacramento is likely to pick #12.

Here are the last several #12 picks in the draft.

Thaddeus Young (should be on All-Rookie team)
Hilton Armstrong (averaging 11 minutes/game)
Yaroslav Korolev (out of the league)
Robert Swift (might as well be out of the league)
Nick Collison (solid rotation player)
Melvin Ely (NBA champion on a technicality)
Vladimir Radmanovic (awesome snowboarder)
Etan Thomas (poet)
Aleksander Radojevic (ummm...)
Michael Doleac (longer NBA career than Keith Van Horn)
Austin Croshere (decent career)
Vitaly Potapenko (no comment)

Not a murderer's row. Not an aggravated assaulter's row. Not a shoplifter's row.

Here are some player's in the #12 zone (roughly #9-15) from current mock drafts, in case you feel like watching college ball.

DraftExpress
D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas
Chase Budinger, SG, Arizona
Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
Nicolas Batum, SF, France
Kevin Love, PF, UCLA
Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
Anthony Randolph, PF, LSU

NBADraft.net
Russell Westbrook, SG, USC
Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
Anthony Randolph, PF, LSU
O.J. Mayo, SG, USC
Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas
Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
Darren Collison, PG, UCLA

Chad Ford, ESPN
Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy
O.J. Mayo, SG, USC
D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas
Russell Westbrook, SG, USC
Chase Budinger, SG, Arizona
Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
Marreese Speights, C, Florida

At this point, I doubt the Kings can pick for need if they indeed do end up with the #12 pick. If the best player available is a swingman, take the swingman. Looking at that list of previous #12s makes me nervous about picking for need this low, and also picking bigs in a lighter draft than 2007.

Mostly, I'm just nervous in general. What do y'all think?

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Comments

I'd love

for us to take a playmaker like Ty Lawson, OJ Mayo or DJ Augustine.

I think OJ Mayo would excite us because he's got the potential to be a real good player.

The Sacramento Kings: Where Amazing Happens!

by kingme18 on Mar 2, 2008 9:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's just me

and I get to watch almost zero College hoops over here, but Mayo makes me think of Stephon Marbury.

by Kfan in Korea on Mar 2, 2008 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Great analogy

I like it too. OJ Mayo has similar issues to Marbury. He needs time to mature and hear his criticism. That's what Marbury has NEVER been able to do.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 1:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love

OJ Mayo too. He's dropped fairly far this year too. He was projected to go within the first 3 with Rose and Beasley. Maybe we'll get lucky.

by vfettke on Mar 2, 2008 9:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

2.5% ain't bad...

Hopefully we drop another spot, let's get that tanking line-up ready Reggie. If we drop to the 11th spot then we will have upwards of like 3.3% to land a top 3 pick and that's something I am willing to pray for.

Unfortunately, as our franchise has been the opposite of lucky recently its hard to tell who we will end up with. How funny would it be if we ended up with Hibbert, when we were planning on taking him last year.

by moproblemz on Mar 2, 2008 10:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

NO!

Fuck Roy Hibbert!

I'm a little mad at him for pulling out of last year's draft. Had he stayed in it would've changed the whole draft, and possibly knocked Noah to us. Not that I don't like Spencer, but I'd have rather taken Noah

by vfettke on Mar 2, 2008 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Noah

I liked Noah too mainly because the kid's a winner. I love Noah's energy and defense and he could've been a real nice complement next to Brad Miller, thats for sure.

The Sacramento Kings: Where It's never a dull moment Happens!

by kingme18 on Mar 2, 2008 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OJ Mayo won't fall that far

Even if Mayo drops out of the Top 3, there's no chance that he'll fall all the way to 12. Someone in the Top 10 will pick him up based on previous hype if nothing else.

I also think that Augustin has a chance to make a push into the Top 10 with a decent Tourney showing (a la Conley last year). Remember, he was expected to fall in this range at about the same time last year as well.

I also can't shake the feeling that Hibbert & Love will be gone before the Kings select too.

That said, I'd be happy with any of the four I mentioned above.

by smgmatt on Mar 2, 2008 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Even if?

"Even if Mayo falls out of the top 3???"

He isnt anywhere near the top three. Therefore he aint gonna "drop" out of the top 3

I'm not sure if he'll be around 12 or not, but if he is we should grab him

by Hoops916 on Mar 2, 2008 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts to come later

If people don't know, I'm a huge UCLA fan and I watch every game they play. I'll put up my detailed thoughts on Love and Collison when we near the draft. I'll also talk about Mayo too because I've seen him play a decent amount.

The short version is that I agree with what analysts are starting to say about these three. Love and Collison are ready to be good NBA talents where Mayo needs another year.

by thekangarooster on Mar 2, 2008 11:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

If mayo needs another year

then he should stay. He's a top 5 talent, and can help himself if he stays out of trouble for another year or (even two).

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Once Again

i love ty lawson. he's lightning quick. darren collison also intrigues me with his experience being to two straight final four's, and losing to the eventual champs Florida both times. he's also lightning quick like lawson. i really like darrell arthur from kansas. he's a big scoring pf that we have been looking for and can grow with a skilled big in b. miller finding him on back cuts and in the post. if hibbert falls to us, we have to take him based on the defense and rebounding he brings to the table. with the future of the west in the big mans hands (oden, bynum) it would be nice to have a big that can match up with them(even though oden schooled hibbert in college last year). hibbert's offense has gotten a lot better too, which was the big reason for him staying this last year, he wasn't ready for the NBA and i think he will be next year.

when will the Kenny Thomas Reign of Terror end?!!??

by diehardkingsfan5 on Mar 2, 2008 11:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ummm

NBADraft.net's profile of Darrell Arthur. I find it interesting that very few people have mentioned him (unless you were referring to Arthur in your drafting for need bit).

He compares almost similarly the same way to Spencer Hawes did ago. I'm not saying NBAdraft is great or anything. What I'm saying it's a tad eery that the Kings need a big rebounding PF who can block some shots (Arthur can do this) and what not. Arthur has some post & mid range skills. It's an interesting thought to pair Hawes (a 10th pick) with Arthur (a potential 12th pick) and see what develops.

So if all that is wishful thinking so be it. If you drop an all star at any position minus a SG it isn't going to look good for your franchise's future (obviously). I say the Kings need to roll the dice a little with need, and pick a talented player like Arthur, and see what happens and if he can develop. What will they lose? Another 12th pick?

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 12:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes I wish I could edit all my comments

Oh well. I meant to say this in the first paragraph.

(I find it interesting that very few people have mentioned him (unless TZ you were referring to Arthur in your drafting for need bit).

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One Good Thing

The list of players drafted at twelve does not excite me, but Geoff Petrie was not in charge of those picks. Given his draft (not free agent) track record, I feel that there will be enough talent left on the board for GP to secure us a contributor.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Mar 2, 2008 12:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hopeful

The fact that Petrie drafted Peja (14th), Martin (26th) and even Garcia (23rd) with draft positions worse than 12th gives me hope...

I wouldn't mind Love or Arthur or maybe Anthony Randolph...

And we have two 2nd round picks right? Any chance of us moving up using those? Any potential Ginobilli's or Boozer's in the 2nd round this year?

I like both DJ White (Indiana) and Derrick Caracter (Louisville) for 2nd round picks...

by sroufe on Mar 2, 2008 1:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't mind Randolph

if Petrie truly felt he was the best available. That being said if Randolph is a Lamar Odom clone I'd rather not go that route (strictly in terms playing style).

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Couple things

In 1996 Kobe was drafted 13th. He was available at that spot (even if he made it known he only wanted to play for the Lakers).

In 1997 there wasn't anybody of franchise caliber note, other than Duncan (1st) Billups (3rd--and took a long time to get to an all-star level) McGrady (9th) and Olivier Saint Jean (11th).

TZ noted Croshere, but Scot Pollard and Bobby Jackson both were picked later in the 1st round that year, at 19 & 23 respectively.

There are a couple other role players but nothing that intrigues me. Another point about 1997 you can make is that, Anthony Johnson who was picked 39th, is actually a better player than Jacque Vaughn who was picked 27th that year. In otherwords the draft pick selection process can be a crap shoot outside of the top 20 picks or so.

I think it's safe to say that if there is a quality player at whatever spot the Kings pick Petrie won't miss that player. His track record supports that.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 2, 2008 2:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Kobe

... came out as a 17 year old high schooler though. That lowered his value in the draft quite a bit because he was the first high school guard to be seriously considered, plus he held the trump card of being able to play college ball if he didn't like the team that drafted him. Obviously this scared away most GMs.

For much the same reason Jermaine O'Neal slipped all the way to 17th that same year; and the next year a Top 3 talent like Tracy McGrady was slected 9th (after Adonal Foyle).

Fortunately (or unfortunately), that kind of stuff doesn't happen anymore, and even Euros who used to sneak under the radar (like Nowitzki, Peja etc.) are much better scouted now days.

With very few exceptions, (ie Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer and a small handful of others) if you want a player with superstar talent you need to grab one of those coveted first three to five picks. The 6-10 slots picks can fairly often yield a very good player, or even a star occasionally, but after that it gets dicey in a hurry. After 16-20 you might as well throw darts, (which is why I generally have no interest in seeing the Kings pick up a second rd. draft pick.)

On the bright side, Geoff Petrie's track record for somehow uncovering actual NBA-worthy talent despite lousy draft position for about 10 straight years is incredible. He's only had one pick in the top 10 ever (J-Will at #7 in 1998) which as we all know he later magically turned into the #2 pick (Mike Bibby).

"When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro." (Hunter S Thompson)

by Mucho Moss on Mar 2, 2008 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well on the subject of Kobe

He couldn't use joining college as a trump card. You're thinking of the MLB draft. Once you declare for the NBA draft you forego college eligibility. What really lowered Kobe's value was the fact that he wouldn't work out for any teams. He wanted to play for the lakers PERIOD.

For much the same reason Jermaine O'Neal slipped all the way to 17th that same year; and the next year a Top 3 talent like Tracy McGrady was slected 9th (after Adonal Foyle).

I think McGrady slipped cuz of character issues (which we all know he has). O'Neal I think slipped because he was so much of a project at that point of time. People forget that he wasn't really ready his first 2 seasons in any way. It wasn't until his 3rd & 4th seasons that he did much of anything. And after his 4th season of course is when he got traded to Indy.

In otherwords what I'm saying is let's not use those HS guys as examples. Let's not use HS guys as examples period anymore since none are no longer eligible to enter the draft.

I agree with what you're saying about Petrie's track record. It's not like the guy has ever gotten a pick HIGHER than 7th or 8th to work with.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 3, 2008 1:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mark my words...

Thabeet, learn it, live it, love it. 7'-3", shot blocker, he's more Dikembe than Sene, Swift. This would allow the kings to move Miller to the 4 and groom Spencer for the 4 when Miller exits. Thabeet is developing an aggressive streak, he will be the big climber around draft time if he comes out.

I do pray for the #1 pick, Beasley is incredible, a true franchise changer. He is so much farther along than Durant.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Mar 2, 2008 3:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

interesting...

I also have a tough time envisioning Spencer as a 5, long term.

We definitely need some defensive presence somewhere in the front-court, something Hawes doesn't have and that Hasheem Thabeet would seemingly provide... I was touting Thabeet a while back here, but I've backed off a bit after checking his recent box scores (zero FGs made his last two games on first 7 and then 0 attempts).

I still think he's intriguing, but the kid has some serious limitations on the offensive end that might be tough to fix, and in general a lot of downside to go with all the upside that comes from his great size and imposing defensive skills.

"When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro." (Hunter S Thompson)

by Mucho Moss on Mar 2, 2008 9:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

9 blocks in those two games.

Thabeet will be a pre-draft riser, that guy who climbs 8 spots out of no where. I'm pretty sure he made himself eligible for the draft last year and then pulled. If that is the case, I don't think he can do it twice which might make him hold off for another year.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Mar 3, 2008 12:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those blocks are Mutumbo-like

... but Dikembe also averaged about 10 pts a game during his (loooong) NBA career, and more than 12 ppg in his first 10 years in the league. He was very agile and so damn strong that you just couldn't keep him completely off the scoreboard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4t9Kdm09YLQ

Thabeet is a great rejector alright, but he's not a very good rebounder right now, and he'll need to provide at least a modicum of offense. If he can keep improving, then yeah, we'd be lookin' good with him in the post, swatting down all those shots. He's somebody to keep an eye on this month.

"When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro." (Hunter S Thompson)

by Mucho Moss on Mar 3, 2008 2:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a Georgetown fan.

I love Mutumbo, look at his first two seasons at G-Town, offensive production is very similar, block totals are close, rebound numbers are a little down but I don't think Thabeet has Alonzo Mourning playing along side him.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Mar 3, 2008 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yes.

While I admit to know nothing about Thabeet; I like your mindset. Using Brad and training Spencer at the 4 feels right. We all talk about needing someone physical and strong at the four, lets bring in a real banger!

Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Mar 2, 2008 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

UPside!

There's been a fair amount of talk at StR about Kevin Love, OJ Mayo and a couple of other possible prospects for the 2008 draft. Here are a few less-discussed players with lots of upside who we should have a shot at if we stay at 12...

Russell Westbrook (PG/SG: UCLA)
Westbrook unexpectedly emerged from the Bruin bench this year to position himself as a potential lottery pick. He's still learning to play PG, but is already averaging almost 6 asists per game playing in the same backcourt as Darren Collison. Good size and even better athleticism, super quick, with and an explosive first step. Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FP0ua5xFw4
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Russell-Westbrook-5062/

Anthony Randolph (F; LSU)
I'll second the motion on Randolph. If the kid continues to develop he's a Top 5 pick in 2009, but the Kings might be able to get him on the cheap if he comes out this year. Despite his 6'11 frame, probably not a true power forward, but Randolph has great quickness, natural ability and slick skills that drew a comparison with Shawn Marion at Draft Express. 19 year old needs polishing and also needs to grow into his body.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Anthony-Randolph-1069/

The only problem with these first two guys is that if they continue to play well this season and enter the draft there's a good chance they'll be off the board after the first 10 picks or so.

Next, three big men with upside who should be available at the 12 slot:

DeVon Hardin (C/PF; UC Berkeley)
prototype NBA body at 6'11" 250, Hardin is very strong, very athletic, with excellent leaoing ability and long arms. A very intelligent, mature, 4.0 student from Northern California. An excellent rebounder who can run the floor really well, but still has a limited offensive game, Hardin is a senior who missed much of his junior season, and is still developing as a player. Put up 18 pts and 13 rebounds last night vs Washington.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmWw5K2ZwLk

Nathan Jawai (C/PF; Australia)
A bull of a player at 6'10" 280, Jawai relys on his brute strength to dominate around the basket, but also has a 7'4" wingspan, great leaping ability and a developing soft shooting touch too. Extremely raw, Jawai has only been playing hoops for five years, but seems to have a natural feel for the game. Nickname: "Baby Shaq".
http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/nathanjawai.html

Alexis Ajinca
Definitely more of a roll of the dice here, Ajinca is 7'1" with a freakishly long 7'7" wingspan(!) and is very athletic. Not to mention the fact that he has a nice shooting touch and can even nail 3 pointers from waaay downtown. On the other hand, Ajinca is currently way too skinny to play post in the NBA (listed at just 210). Still, he's only 19, and drew a compasion to Kevin Garnett at NBADraft net, so he might be worth a long look.
http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/alexisajinca.asp

"When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro." (Hunter S Thompson)

by Mucho Moss on Mar 2, 2008 7:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I love Hardin but...

Injuries seem to find him. He's projected mid-late twenties. I'm hoping the Kings can land another 1st rounder, this seems like another deep draft with major stars at the top and lots of potential throughout.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Mar 2, 2008 10:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OJ Mayo

Doesn't he have a million "character" issues, a comparison to Marbury scares me, seems to be the type of player who over rates his own talent and may not have the drive to develop his game over time. Once he gets paid he may not care to hear about whats wrong with his game and he may never mature. He should stay in school but I can't see it

by Murf on Mar 3, 2008 8:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs