The Difference of One Year

by Ziller on Mar 3, 2008 10:10 AM PST in Commentary Comment 11 comments

Are how the 2007-08 Kings doing in relation to the 2006-07 Kings?

This first graph shows total winning percentage over the course of the season. Red is 2006-07, blue is 2007-08.

As you can see, the team started off better a year ago before faltering and hovering around .400 the final two months. This team started awful and has risen up to above .400, where it currently chills.

But wins do not necessary capture everything which goes on. Let's look at cumulative point differential, with the same color code.

By this measure, the 2006-07 Kings were much better than this edition. Why is this so, considering the teams have equal records? When the 2006-07 Kings lost, they often lost by a few points, often in overtime. Thus, many of their wins were by substantial amounts.

When the 2007-08 Kings lose, they lose big. By 21, sometimes. By 16 other times. And they tend to perform well enough in close games, which boosts win percentage but does not do much for point differential.

Why is point differential? It has been found to be a more accurate measure of team quality than winning percentage. A 27-32 team with a -15 point differential will typically beat a 27-32 team with a -126 point differential, all else being equal. Hell, a 25-34 team with -17 point differential will typically beat a 27-32 team with a -126 point differential.

So kudos, I suppose, to Theus for keeping this team fighting. But realize the statistics show last year's version played better. The coach can do a lot for his status and future by "willing his team" into finishing strong. This team's direction is certainly brighter at this point in the season than last year's, though there is quite a bit room to make up.

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a couple things

what if brad miller played last season like he's playing this one?
although last year the point differential was much better, the stability was also better as well. this year, we've got a starting pg who was picked up off waivers. our original starting pg is...i don't know where he is! we had subs who were getting minutes early in the season who are no longer with the team too (watkins, jones and 3-wil). our starting pg for the last 6-7 years has been traded away. ron artest is...ron artest! salmons night and day season. all the games missed by our starters. 0, yes 0 division wins. playing in one of the toughest conferences of the last decade or so. and after all this, it somehow equals 27-32. kind of amazing to me!
something that was pointed out during the game yesterday. the kings have 9 wins against top 10 teams this year, and 9 losses against bottom 10 teams. and after taking a quick look at the remaining 23 games, we've got around 10 games left against top 10 teams (4 against the lakers in the span of a month!), so we should finish the season strong!'
GO KINGS!

by kingsfaninjapan on Mar 3, 2008 11:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Nice Graph

I think it's an excellent illustration of poor coaching vs whatever Reggie's doing (strong coaching--good coaching?) at this point.

I do have one thing to say about finishing strong. Remember the dubs 3 seasons ago after the mid-season trade for Baron Davis? They went out on big winning streaks to finish the season. The next season they stunk again. I'm not sure finishing strong means anything for the next season. I think having a future with this personnel means more in my humble opinion.

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 3, 2008 11:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

mediocrity....

is a hard pill to swallow

"I think the Shaq trade will be the biggest mistake since movie execs cast Arnold Schwarzenegger as Mr. Freeze based on box office reputation"

by CrownUs93 on Mar 3, 2008 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Amen Brother

I am the stone that the builder refused I am the visual, the inspiration That made Lady Sing the Blues..I'm the spark that makes your idea bright...

by pookeyguru on Mar 4, 2008 1:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Remember The Injuries

We've had injuries to Martin, Artest and Bibby this season plus the Artest suspension to start the season. Brad missed a couple of games which were both losses. Beno joined the team after the season started.

Only Salmons and Moore have played in all 59 games.

Artest and Martin have both missed 17 games.

Bibby missed 36 games and played in just 15 games for the Kings before he was traded for four guys named Joe. Bibby was by far the team leader in crunch time field goal attempts last season.

Udrih wasn't here for the first four games and missed two others due to injury, both losses.

Garcia missed three games with injury, all losses.

Abdur-Rahim played 80 games last year and averaged just under 10 points a game. He's played in six games this year.

Take a look at the number of games where we've had all of our players or at least most of them, and I think you'll find we've been a pretty good team in those games.

Disclaimer: This post may be a complete and utter waste of your valuable time.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Mar 3, 2008 10:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Very good break down.

It appears that the Kings have just enough talent to be competitive, take away any of the top eight players and the team can't win. I wish Theus could have had the opportunity to coach the entire roster all year long. Even the loss of SAR could account for 1-3 extra wins. Bibby, Artest and Martin all missing time cost the team another 5-7 wins (in theory).

Last year I felt Muss cost the team at least 5 wins with his inability to coach play sets out of time outs and quarter breaks. Theus could have coached last years team to the play-offs, Muss would have the current team at 20-21 wins, a much better draft position but not very fun to watch.

StR- Where Pookey is long, Otis is short and Section brings down the house.

by jjham15 on Mar 3, 2008 11:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Am I the only person suprised by this? I dispised last years team, and had I not been provided with the data above (TZ, as always) I would have sworn this years team not only had a better record, but competed more. I guess that just shows how much my emotion plays with my memory. Man, I hated last season.

Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal

by 27freethrows on Mar 3, 2008 10:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

How quickly we forget

At the beginning of this season, we were all debating who we would like to take with our top-3 draft pick. This season has been nothing if not a pleasant surprise. A few of these details were already mentioned, but take a look at what we've seen this season:

Injuries. Kevin Martin, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, Abdur-Rahim, Reggie Theus (he was probably injured at some point this season. Speaking of Theus...)
Rookie Coach
Bibby traded away
Artest stays
Beno added
Salmons going from Team MVP to bench mediocrity
I'm sure I'm forgetting some things, but my boss is looking at me like I should be doing something other than posting on StR. But seriously, this has been a very entertaining season, and the team has played hard every game. Even when they suck.

In Geoff we trust...

by Exhibit G on Mar 4, 2008 7:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Remember last year's finish

5-17 over the last 22 games last year. It would be interesting to re-visit these charts at the end of the season.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Mar 4, 2008 10:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Scary thing is

That the trendline on this team is pretty similar. One half of exceptional basketball at home against arguably the worst team in the NBA doesn't completely make up for a horrendous roadtrip. The defense has gotten worse, they are getting blown out against bad teams on the road, and there is some mild dissension in the locker room. It all sounds oh so familiar!

Mikki Moore - WNBA Hair, WNBA Body, WNBA Talent

by otis29 on Mar 4, 2008 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

With and Without The Big 5

The Kings are 17-11 in games in which Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Beno Udrih AND Francisco Garcia all play, with a point differential of +33 in those games.

The Kings are 9-20 in games in which either Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Brad Miller, Beno Udrih OR Francisco Garcia do not play, with a point differential of -159 in those games.

It's all enough to make you believe in magic.

There's more details to gander at in today's diary.

Disclaimer: This post may be a complete and utter waste of your valuable time.

by coolcatreportdotcom on Mar 4, 2008 1:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs