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Sacramento, Where a 2-3 Homestand is Optimistic

In the poll I executed (lethal injection, natch) yesterday, 65% of the respondents predicted the Kings would win one or two of the next five home games. Two things: 1) How sad. 2) Sactown Royalty readers are smart.

Using a formula we've looked at here before and developed by Ed Kupfer, I delved into the win expectancies for the home stand. As expected, it's not gorgeous. As records stand today, the Kings will be favored in only one game -- the closer against the Clippers. Even that margin is incredibly slim -- the formula gives Sacramento a 50.6% likelihood of winning that game.

The formula uses team expected (Pythagorean) winning percentage (which is based off points scored and allowed, and has been found to be much more descriptive of a team's prowess than straight up winning percentage), a factor for home court advantage, and factors of days of rest. Following are the percentage likelihood's the formula gives for each game.

     Opponent     Sac's Likelihood
  San Antonio           16.2%
 Golden State           48.6%
      Houston           33.7%
         Utah           20.2%
L.A. Clippers           50.6%

When you add the probabilities, you end up with 1.6 expected wins during the stretch -- which means guesses of one or two wins are reasonable.

Yes, going 3-2 would be a remarkable achievement. Going 2-3 would be better than expected. Do you ever feel you've been abducted in the night and transported to a place which reeks of vaguely familiar death and desperation?