Milwaukee (8-11) at Sacramento (7-12)
Sacramento: 102.0 ORtg (#15), 105.7 DRtg (#23), 96.9 Pace (#11)
Terrible on the road. Terrible defense. Good shooting team, led by Michael Redd (25.5 pt/40 on 45/89/36% shooting). Great offensive rebounders, led by Andrew Bogut, Yi Jianlin and Charlie Villanueva. Bogut and Charlie are good defensive rebounders; Yi is not. Bogut a shot-blocking threat; Yi also, but less so. Charlie? No. Desmond Mason has been terrible on offense -- let the man shoot! No Bobby Simmons tonight, per BrewHoop.
John Salmons leads the Kings in three-ball shooting all of a sudden, at 40%... but Ron Artest (38%) will take twice as many. Top rebound rate on the team besides Justin Williams? Spencer Hawes. The Kings draw a bunch of fouls, even without Kevin Martin -- especially Salmons. Bogut and Yi foul a lot, so attacking them would be awesome.
The win-prob formula says the Kings have a 76% probability of winning.
Sacramento by 5.5. O/U of 198.5.
This seems like a no-brainer win for the Kings. The Bucks are very similar to the Kings in several regards -- decent offense, poor defense; good at home, poor on the road; rely on a star-level scorer and a host of competant but somewhat inconsistent supporting cast members. Of course, with Martin out, the offensive edge goes to Milwaukee, with Redd and Mo Williams. But Redd's one of those types of cats Artest can limit, and Williams isn't so good he's going to carve up Beno Udrih and/or Salmons. (Udrih's got nice footspeed on defense, no?) Milwaukee might be smart to slide one of their long power forwards out onto Miller whilst he's in so as not to negate Bogut shotblocking presence, which is about the only thing this team has going for it on defense. I'd be happy if Salmons didn't attempt a three in the game -- I'd imagine Redd will be guarding him, and there's no reason Johnny can't a) blow by him and b) finish or draw contact every time he touches the ball. It's nice that the shot is falling; Salmons at the rim is still more potent than Salmons at the arc.
Garcia played real well in Denver; Quincy Douby was nonexistant. It might not matter tonight, but on the roadie QD has to provide some scoring in his minutes to help make up for the punchless front court. Hawes' shooting numbers are bad right now; he's shown off his stroke enough, time to move closer to the rim. Only Redd draws fouls for Milwaukee, so we shouldn't see any major foul trouble for Miller or Mikki Moore; if we do, I hope we get a glimpse of 3-Wil instead of K-9 (woof!).
Game's at 7. Go Kings.