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By the Numbers: 2016 NBA Draft Point Guard Prospects

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Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

This is the fifth and final part of a series in which I analyze the 2016 NBA Draft by position. As a source I used DraftExpress's mock draft and for statistics I used both DraftExpress and Sports-Reference. All statistics used are for the prior college basketball season. Because of the lack of advanced statistic information and difference in playstyle for international leagues, I have only included NCAA players in this analysis. For information such as player position, school, height, etc. please click on the player's name and it will take you to their DraftExpress page with all that information.

The Kings have been trying to find their Point Guard of the future for years now.  For a while, we thought it was Tyreke Evans, but eventually the Kings abandoned that experiment.  Then Isaiah Thomas came along and it looked like the Kings did have that guy, but alas, new management didn't believe he was good enough to be a starting PG in the NBA and looked to supplant him with guys like Greivis Vasquez and Darren Collison.  Finally last season, the Kings landed perhaps the best Free Agent Point Guard available in Rajon Rondo, but with Rondo on just a one year deal and a disappointing, drama filled year, it seems unlikely he'll be back, leaving the Kings searching once more.

There are a couple Point Guards in this draft in particular that I think are on Sacramento's radar with the 8th pick, but neither come without flaws, and for a team that is trying to be good now, entrusting the team to a rookie PG might lead to some growing pains as they learn the flow of the NBA game.

Basic Stats:

Name Class MPG PPG FG% 3P% FT% TRB APG STL BLK TOV PF
Kris Dunn Jr. 33.0 16.4 .448 .372 (42/113) .695 5.3 6.2 2.5 0.6 3.5 2.8
Wade Baldwin So. 30.4 14.1 .427 .406 (41/101) .799 4.0 5.2 1.2 0.3 2.8 2.6
Demetrius Jackson Jr. 35.9 15.8 .451 .331 (54/163) .813 3.5 4.7 1.2 0.3 2.2 1.9
Tyler Ulis So. 36.8 17.3 .434 .344 (55/160) .856 3.0 7.0 1.5 0.1 2.0 1.8
Gary Payton II Sr. 34.3 16.0 .486 .314 (22/70) .642 7.8 5.0 2.5 0.5 2.3 2.7
Cat Barber Jr. 38.7 23.5 .434 .361 (43/119) .865 4.6 4.5 0.6 0.1 2.6 2.2
Kay Felder Jr. 36.7 24.4 .440 .355 (76/214) .848 4.3 9.3 2.0 0.2 3.4 3
Yogi Ferrell Sr. 34.7 17.3 .458 .420 (79/188) .829 3.8 5.6 1.1 0.0 2.5 1.7
Marcus Paige Sr. 31.6 12.6 .398 .356 (74/208) .774 2.5 3.7 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.5
Isaiah Taylor Jr. 30.9 15.0 .420 .306 (19/62) .811 2.8 5.0 0.9 0.2 1.8 2.7
Tyrone Wallace Sr. 32.2 15.3 .442 .298 (25/84) .649 5.3 4.4 1.0 0.4 2.6 2.3
Fred VanVleet Sr. 29.0 12.2 .390 .381 (43/113) .817 3.2 5.5 1.8 0.1 1.7 1.7
Julian Jacobs Jr. 31.0 11.6 .471 .326 (15/46) .704 4.9 5.4 1.2 0.4 2.7 2.5

Advanced Stats:

Name PER TS% FTR ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg Team SoS
Kris Dunn 23.2 .541 .462 3.5% 14.7% 41.8% 4.3% 1.9% 18.8% 28.0% 106.1 94.8 28th
Wade Baldwin 20.7 .571 .614 1.5% 11.6% 33.7% 2.3% 1.0% 18.2% 25.3% 112.7 97.8 36th
Demetrius Jackson 21.0 .560 .325 3.0% 8.0% 25.1% 2.1% 0.8% 13.3% 24.1% 117.9 112.2 15th
Tyler Ulis 23.9 .567 .441 1.7% 7.1% 34.3% 2.3% 0.3% 11.4% 23.2% 128.8 103.4 39th
Gary Payton II 25.9 .532 .291 7.8% 18.0% 32.9% 4.3% 1.7% 13.3% 25.6% 112.7 97.2 23rd
Cat Barber 24.0 .553 .479 1.7% 11.1% 25.2% 1.0% 0.2% 10.8% 30.0% 119.5 112.9 27th
Kay Felder 28.7 .572 .461 2.2% 9.7% 50.0% 2.9% 0.5% 13.9% 31.3% 122.8 105.8 168th
Yogi Ferrell 22.9 .600 .383 3.5% 9.3% 28.4% 1.8% 0.1% 14.8% 24.3% 127.5 105.5 64th
Marcus Paige 17.4 .537 .263 1.6% 7.0% 18.4% 2.1% 1.5% 9.5% 19.4% 121.9 104.7 6th
Isaiah Taylor 21.4 .525 .517 1.5% 8.9% 35.3% 1.7% 0.7% 11.4% 27.0% 115.2 105.7 4th
Tyrone Wallace 19.7 .514 .450 3.5% 14.2% 28.5% 1.8% 1.3% 15.1% 27.4% 106.6 98.8 53rd
Fred VanVleet 22.2 .523 .393 1.3% 11.8% 39.6% 3.7% 0.4% 13.0% 23.9% 115.1 88.6 93rd
Julian Jacobs 18.0 .541 .456 3.6% 12.6% 30.3% 2.2% 1.3% 19.9% 20.6% 109.9 103.2 55th

Providence's Kris Dunn is the consensus top PG of this draft and it's not hard to see why.  Dunn's one of the better passers in the draft, has a few years of experience under his belt and has tremendous skills as a defender, one of the harder things to learn, especially for a guard.  His steal rate is absolutely fantastic, as he uses his tremendous size, length and athleticism to play passing lanes and pickpocket lazy dribblers.  The primary areas of concern with Dunn have to do with his outside shot, turnovers, and a shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of his sophomore year.  Dunn's outside shot isn't as reliable as it is for some others in the draft, but he has improved it almost every year he's been in school, which is a nice sign.  He'll also need to keep improving on his decision making, as an 18.8% turnover rate is quite high.  Still, he possesses all the physical tools to be a tremendous PG on both ends of the floor, potentially able to guard both backcourt positions on a routine basis.  I'll be very surprised to see him still on the board at #8 and if that's the case I'd be wondering what his medical history is showing in that shoulder that might be turning other teams off.

The hot name around the Kings right now is Wade Baldwin, mainly because he's the only top prospect to actually work out for the Kings.  Baldwin isn't as prolific as Dunn, but he's a much better shooter and like Dunn also possesses great size at 6'4 with an almost 7'0 wingspan.  Baldwin was also very aggressive in seeking out his own offense and getting to the basket, with his .614 Free Throw rate easily being the highest among his peers, and he was a knock down shooter from the line as well.  Like Dunn he'll also have to improve his decision making, as his 18.2% turnover rate was quite high, and his assist rate of 33.7% was only mediocre.  Still, if Baldwin can become more consistent as a playmaker, he has a chance to become a legitimate force on both ends of the court, and his shooting should allow him to make an impact from day one.

Demetrius Jackson is more of an undersized shooting guard than a Point Guard at this time, with his assist rate being among the weakest of the group.  However, part of that is because he was tasked with carrying much of Notre Dame's offense himself.  His 3P% dropped from 43% to 33% in his Junior year as he had to create more of his own offense with Jerian Grant having gone to the NBA.  What makes Jackson so intriguing is what doesn't show up in the stats, and that's his incredible athleticism and explosiveness.  Should Jackson become more of a playmaker and consistent shooter, he could be a star.  At the very least he should be a good change of pace guy off the bench.

Tyler Ulis had a strong sophomore season at Kentucky but faces some of the questions Isaiah Thomas did when he came in the NBA, namely that his size (he's only 5'10) is a deficiency.  However Ulis makes up for this by being a very good floor general, possessing the best Assist to Turnover ratio in this group at 3.5 to 1.  His outside shot is also probably better than the percentages indicate, as he hit over 40% of his threes as a Freshman.  Ulis had a reputation as a defensive pest in college as well, using his quickness to stay in front of his man, but in the NBA he'll definitely have an adjustment period playing against bigger, stronger and quicker guards.  One thing that stands out to me is his solid free throw rate, meaning despite his lack of size, he's still aggressive in attacking the basket and using his body to draw contact and get to the line.  I wouldn't sleep on Ulis and I think someone will be getting a really solid player here.

Gary Payton's son would probably be a higher rated prospect if he had any semblance of an outside shot.  Like his father, he's known for his defense, and his steal rate is right up there with Dunn's.  He also rebounds like a forward and is a more than capable playmaker.  Kay Felder has the highest assist rate among this group but also played against the weakest competition by far.  Fred VanVleet might be worth a look for the Kings at the 59th pick.  He's got an assist rate almost as good as Dunn's while also taking care of the ball.  He's also a very good defender, but offensively he struggles to score, especially on the inside.  His jump shot is good but his overall FG% of just 39% is not, especially in college. Still, at 59, the potential is there to be a good backup in the NBA, especially if he can turn into a "3-and-D" type PG.