NBA Position: PG
General Information: 22 year old junior, played at Providence. From New London, CT. Two-time Big East Player of the Year.
Measurables: 6'4.25", 205 lbs, 6'9.5" wingspan, 8'4" standing reach.
2015-16 Season Statistics: 16.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.5 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 3.5 TOPG (33 games played, 33.0 minutes a contest) - 44.8% FG, 69.5% FT, 37.2% 3P
Dunn is a dynamo floor general who combines great court awareness and passing skills with NBA-level athleticism and length. His biggest weakness is his inconsistent shot, but he's made improvements over the past few years and he's a respectable shooter with his feet set. While the junior Dunn is older than most of his draft peers, I expect he'll be a top-10 NBA point guard by the end of his rookie contract.
Dunn is a dynamic passer and has been one of the best floor generals in the country over the past two years. He finished the season with 6.2 assists and a 41% assist rate; he's got great court vision, a flare for passing, and good willingness to create for others. With his ability to attack the basket and create his own shots, he draws plenty of attention and can find his open teammates. While Dunn controlled the ball for a majority of the time he was on the floor (28% usage rate), he did show a good ability to shake defenders and get himself open off the ball.
The downside to his passing is his turnover numbers; Providence gave him full control of the offense, miscues be damned, and with his full-throttle style Dunn wasn't as careful as he'll need to be in the NBA. He finished the season with 3.5 turnovers a game and a 19% turnover rate; both are improvements on his sophomore season, yet he still has the worst turnover numbers of the point guards in this draft. His instinct is to go for homerun plays, which adds to his star power, but he'll need to learn some hesitation.
Dunn is an elite athlete with good size, a strong build, exceptional quickness, and highlight reel explosiveness. When he threw the throttle down, there were few collegiate players who could keep up with him in the open court. He attacks the basket without fear, and with his 6'9.5" wingspan and insane leaping ability he's a major threat in transition (DraftExpress notes that over 25% of his offense was transition). Almost 40% of Dunn's shots came at the rim, and he made 62.6% of those shots; he's got a wicked handle and crafty moves to get by multiple defenders. He's got the ideal physical tools for a player of his size, and backs it up with a willingness to play tough at both ends of the court.
His mid-range shot is below-average (28.8% on two-point jump shots), but this weakness is getting overhyped. Dunn's shot isn't broken—rather every part of his shooting is inconsistent, from his shooting motion to his balance to his success rate. His three point success has improved over his three seasons (to 37.2% this year, a career high), and while his range isn't stable, he's much better with his feet set and a chance to fully set his motion. His (and his future team's) ability to tweak and solidify consistency in his technique will determine how much of a star he can become.
While Dunn wasn't the most consistent defender, he has all the tools to be a terror on defense. Small guards or players without his speed won't be able to get around him easily. He'll also be able to shift and guard some twos when necessary. When he's locked in and keeps his eyes open for screens, he's a great defender, but he didn't show that enough in college for it to be a current strength.
He's got great hawkish instincts; he averaged more than 3.0 steals in his past two seasons with a 4.3% steal rate this year, but he also gets easily baited for steals. He also was able to muscle or run around ball screens, although the pick-and-roll was an area of his defense he needs to improve on. He gives his rivals too much space and expects to be able to compensate with his speed, and when the pick came he was caught off guard too often. While I believe he can and will become a dynamic defensive player given the right coaching, his consistency in college wasn't great and he may be less NBA-ready for defense than you'd like for a 22 year old.
Dunn played at Providence for four years, but a shoulder injury that required surgery planted him in a red shirt on the bench his second year. While any injury is worrying for a young prospect, it was the year after his surgery that Dunn really broke out, and he hasn't had any issues with his shoulder over the past two seasons. Dunn was the visible leader at Providence the past two years, and led a unheralded team with only other other NBA-level talent (Ben Bentil) to two straight NCAA births.
While his stats this season didn't show a massive leap over the past year, Dunn did make good improvements. He increased his scoring, three-point percentage, and dropped his turnover rate. His assist numbers went down, but Providence brought in secondary ball-handlers, and the drop from 50% assist rate to 41% is understandable given that off-guard Kyron Cartwright averaged 4.0 assists per game. Dunn visibly improved as a long-ball shooter, and I think that given the right training staff and an emphasis on consistent technique, he can become a respectable shooting threat and a real offensive weapon.
There will be rough patches as he reigns in his natural homerun-passing instincts, and as defenses force him to prove he can shoot, but none of his weaknesses keep him from being one of the classes best players. He's a fiery player who I expect will be a commanding presence in the league for years to come.
Fit with Sacramento:
The Kings have been searching for consistency at the point guard position since Mike Bibby left, and Dunn could be the most talented true floor general the team has had in a decade. Unlike Wade Baldwin, he's not raw enough that the Kings would worry about his age gap with DeMarcus Cousins. Dunn could be handed the offense immediately, as long as the coaching staff worked with him on his decision making and made it clear that his turnover numbers at Providence won't be acceptable in the NBA.
Adding in a point guard who is more a driver than a shooter would clog the lane, especially if the Kings don't add shooting talent. Still, Dunn is such a visible threat at attacking the basket that the possibilities of a Cousins/Dunn pick-and-roll is drool-inducing. It would be a great start to the Dave Joerger era to give him a high-potential two-way floor general to train and mold. Dunn has his clear weaknesses, but he's talented enough across the board that a smart coach will find many ways to immediately utilize him.
I'd love to see Dunn in a Kings uniform and have tried to convince myself he could fall to #8, but it seems unlikely that a player of his talent lasts that long. True, no one drafting ahead of Sacramento needs a point guard (with the exception of the 76ers, who are locked in on Ben Simmons), but all it takes is one team of Boston, Phoenix, Minnesota, New Orleans or Denver deciding to draft BPA over fit. If the Kings want Dunn (and they should), Vlade Divac should explore ways to trade up. With his insane athleticism and passing skills, I expect he'll be a top-10 NBA point guard by the end of his rookie contract.
As always, check out the DraftExpress breakdowns.