Introduction

The Sacramento Kings are, at long last, officially in rebuilding mode. After trading DeMarcus Cousins in February of 2017, a Kings team built to peak at the 8th seed suddenly finds itself injected with youth across the board. While there are far more questions than answers right now across the fan base (Who will we sign in free agency? Should we trade for bad contracts in order to get picks? Are any of our young guys the real deal? Are they all the real deal? Is Joerger really a good coach?), the majority of them are all part of one overarching question:

When will the Sacramento Kings make the playoffs again?

To answer that question, we will examine a few current teams that have each risen from the ashes of mediocrity in order to reach the promised land. Most have (or will have very soon) reached the playoffs by following a unique blueprint. One featured a magnificent stroke of drafting genius, another a whole slew of trades, and another a mixture of both. One of the teams, despite having numerous lottery picks, has yet to even come close to making the playoffs. Another team, after toiling in mediocrity for years, finally decided to trade their star big man to start over and will likely reach the playoffs only three years later.

The key, then, is to determine how likely each of these scenarios are, particularly in regards to where the Kings currently stand with their treasure chest of youth. Listed below are some best-case, average-case, and worst-case scenarios that could result. Those scenarios were determined by two factors:

1. How long did it take the team to return to the playoffs after beginning their rebuild?

2. How dominant did that team ultimately become?

The best-case scenario teams, then, would be those that went through a relatively quick rebuilding process and yielded a perennial contending team. The moderate-case scenario teams would be those that perhaps took a bit longer with their rebuilding and yielded a solid playoff team but without title aspirations. The worst-case scenario teams would be those that have taken an extensive time to rebuild and have produced a product that barely sniffs (or does not at all sniff) even making the playoffs. Some situations may blend, of course (i.e. a team that went through a short rebuild but produced a team that peaks at the 7th seed), and personal discretion will be used to determine where that team would fit. Each team will have their rebuilding seasons listed along with who they drafted, traded, and signed that year. This exercise will begin with the path of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Best-Case Scenario: Oklahoma City Thunder

First Season of Rebuilding: 2007-2008

Number of Seasons Until Playoffs: 2

Number of Seasons Until Contender: 4

Lottery Luck? Yes! (Jumped up from 5th --> 2nd to get Durant; Jumped from 4th --> 3rd to get Harden)

Number of Top-5 Picks: 4 (Durant, Green, Westbrook, Harden)

Just Traded Franchise Player? Yes (Ray Allen, June 2007)

Number of Players ≤ 21 Years Old in First Rebuilding Season: 2

Number of Draft Picks that Became Stars: 3 (Durant, Westbrook, Harden)

Commentary: The plan that the Seattle Supersonics / Oklahoma City Thunder took to get back to the playoffs is the absolute perfect situation of which every rebuilding team dreams. After trading away their star players Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, the Sonics immediately drafted Durant thanks to a jump up from the 5th spot to the 2nd spot in the draft. The next two drafts were also nailed, yielding Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden. As a result of the immense talent accrued, it only took two years of mediocre basketball before the Thunder returned to the playoffs. Their meteoric rise continued until the young group peaked with a Finals appearance, gaining a valuable experience against the veteran and hungry Big 3 from the Heat.

Unfortunately, this is a rather unrealistic plan to emulate. The odds of picking three superstars in three consecutive drafts is as impressive as it is impossible, and the opportunity to have high enough picks to even select them is equally unlikely. As a result, the Sonics/Thunder are the gold standard for a rebuilding team: Trade your stars for pieces/draft picks, get high draft picks, nail your draft selections (picking perhaps 3 of the best 6 players on the planet right now!), and get back to the playoffs in only a few years' time. As it stands right now, the Kings have a wide variety of young and promising players, but other than a very optimistic view of Fox and Skal, none of them have superstar potential.

Likelihood of Following Their Timeline, in the Form of a Kings’ Moment: The Kings coming back from "first-and-goal at the 1" to Seattle (although you never know...)

Best-Case Scenario: Golden State Warriors

First Season of Rebuilding: 2009-2010

Number of Seasons Until Playoffs: 3

Number of Seasons Until Contender: 5

Lottery Luck? No.

Number of Top-5 Picks: Zero.

Just Traded Franchise Player? No.

Number of Players ≤ 21 Years Old in First Rebuilding Season: 2

Number of Draft Picks that Became Stars: 3 (Curry, Thompson, Green)

Commentary: While the Thunder took what appeared to be the ideal rebuilding path, the Golden State Warriors took an equally appealing path that ended up being far more successful. Unlike the Thunder, however, the Warriors' "luck" came in a variety of moves: 4 out of 5 draft picks nailed (and only 2 of the 4 were top-10 selections), two key sign-and-trades (Iguodala and Bogut), two key free agency signings (Speights and Livingston), the hiring of a fantastic head coach at just the right time (Kerr), and a new owner willing to take new risks (Lacob). That is an incredible amount of moving parts that were nearly all perfect moves, which is a testament to the front office's ability to discern talent. In the end, this team not only became a regular in the playoffs, but also became a perennial favorite to win the championship. Much to the chagrin of the rest of the NBA, their choke-hold on the "Best Team in the NBA" label doesn't look to be easing up anytime soon. Of course, it can't go without mentioning that the incredible tank job of the 2012-2013 Warriors helped narrowly keep their pick in order to select Harrison Barnes. Regardless of the ethics of that decision, it fully worked out and was another crucial piece in the overall puzzle.

Can the Kings replicate this pattern? Some would say they actually already have, back when the early 2000s Kings teams were built. Similar to the Warriors, those Kings teams were constructed via multiple transactions, including free agency signings (Vlade Divac, Doug Christie, Bobby Jackson), major trades (Chris Webber, Mike Bibby), minor trades (Scot Pollard), and draft picks that weren't too high (Peja Stojaković, Hedo Türkoğlu). Still, the question remains: Just how often are those kinds of championship-contending teams put together in such a masterful way? Rarely. Since the 2000s, perhaps the only other teams that fit such a mold include the mid-2000s Detroit Pistons and the Nash-led Phoenix Suns. It is possible, but with so many parts that need to go right and could very well go wrong, the odds are not good. As it stands right now, the Kings are technically in a position where they could pull it off if everything goes perfectly. They have the promising youth (some of which will likely need to be used as bait for the perfect trades) and the cap space for the magic to happen, but again, a lot would need to go right to form a perennial contender this way.

Likelihood of Following Their Timeline, in the Form of a Kings’ Moment: Tyreke’s buzzer-beater from half court.

Average-Case Scenario: Utah Jazz

First Season of Rebuilding: 2013-2014

Number of Seasons Until Playoffs: 3

Number of Seasons Until Contender: N/A (In Flux with George Hill and Gordon Hayward)

Lottery Luck? No.

Number of Top-5 Picks: 1 (Exum)*

*Kanter, #3 overall, was taken before the "official" rebuild for Utah began.

Just Traded Franchise Player? No.**

**The Deron Williams trade occurred two full seasons before the "official" rebuild for Utah began.

Number of Players ≤ 21 Years Old in First Rebuilding Season: 3

Number of Draft Picks that Became Stars: 2 (Hayward, Gobert)

Commentary: Even with the trading of Deron Williams during the 2010-2011 season, the Jazz were able to stay in the hunt for the 8th seed over the next two season by adeptly incorporating solid veterans (Al Jefferson, Devin Harris, Marvin Williams) with their young players (Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, Alec Burks). Those three seasons were included in the chart to give an idea of how Utah prepared for the future in advance of their first "official" rebuilding season in 2013-2014, which came in a hurry thanks to the departure of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in free agency.

Unlike with Golden State and Oklahoma City, Utah returned to the playoffs primarily through the use of trades. Other than Gordon Hayward at #9 and Gobert at #27, their draft picks have either been injury-prone (Burks, Exum, Hood) or just average (Kanter, Burke, Lyles thus far). They had their chances, but similar to the Kings, many of their picks simply did not turn out. The trades for Gobert (on draft night), Derrick Favors, and George Hill helped pave the way forward. Just like in the draft, however, not all of their trades turned out well, such as the trade for Burke on draft night (giving up what the #14 Muhummad and #21 Dieng). In free agency, the astute pickup of Joe Ingles turned out to be much more important than anticipated, and the signing of Joe Johnson provided a major boost throughout the season and especially during the playoffs.

Despite their recent success, however, their team is in serious flux. Gordon Hayward, Joe Ingles, and George Hill are all free agents; Joe Johnson is has one more year left but just turned 36; and their remaining core of Favors, Exum, Burks, and Hood seem to be injury-prone and, for Exum, still unproven. The short period of rebuilding was certainly impressive, and it was smoothed into place by drafting Gordon Hayward a few years before the "official" rebuild began. It is even more impressive when one notes how the Jazz won 38 games or more in every season since 2010-2011 except for one (excluding the lockout-shortened season). Because of their constant injuries over the past few seasons, however, it is hard to truly gauge where they would stand as a team if everyone was able to play together for the majority of the season. Based on records alone, this rebuild was average, but one simply cannot account for injuries when planning for the future. On paper, a lineup of Hill, Hood, Hayward, Favors, and Gobert along with Exum and Burks off of the bench looks very talented and a worthwhile final product of a rebuild. With this summer perhaps bringing massive changes, however, there is a chance we will never know just how much this group could have achieved.

The Utah Jazz are a team many Kings fans would like the Kings to emulate in regards to their development timeline and plan. The way the Kings are structured right now (4 rookies, 4 players with one year of experience, 1 player with two years of experience) does look relatively similar to how the Jazz were structured in their first "official" rebuilding season (3 rookies, 1 player with one year of experience, 3 players with two years of experience, 4 players with two years of experience). Like with Utah, some of those young players will probably not work out, which would lead us to trades and free agency to fill in the wholes. Overall, they appear to be a great team to mimic in regards to our current state: Do your best in the draft without top-3 picks (some will work, some won't), make trades to bring in talented players, and take some moderate chances in free agency.

Likelihood of Following Their Timeline, in the Form of a Kings’ Moment: Scot Pollard showing up with a new hairdo.

Average-Case Scenario: Minnesota Timberwolves

First Season of Rebuilding: 2014-2015

Number of Seasons Until Playoffs: N/A (Likely 3)

Number of Seasons Until Contender: N/A

Lottery Luck? No.

Number of Top-5 Picks: 2 (Towns, Dunn)

Just Traded Franchise Player? Yes (Kevin Love, August 2014)

Number of Players ≤ 21 Years Old in First Rebuilding Season: 4

Number of Draft Picks that Became Stars: 1 (Towns)

Commentary: The Timberwolves' rebuilding trajectory looks eerily similar to that of the Kings, as both have not made the playoffs in 10+ years, both had multiple lottery picks that never worked out, both traded their star big man away after years of mediocrity with him, both put a lot of faith into a highly touted European prospect, and both had at least one Rookie of the Year winner. The number of top-10 picks between the two teams that haven't turned out is actually staggering: Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, Derrick Williams, Spencer Hawes, Tyreke Evans, Thomas RObinson, Ben McLemore, and Nik Stauskas. As with the Kings, the Timberwolves had talent on their roster with Rubio and Love for multiple seasons, but they were simply unable to even reach the 8th seed. With the ultimate trade of Love for Wiggins * co. before the 2014-2015 season, the "official" rebuild finally began.

A major difference in the trades of Love vs. Cousins, of course, is the return. The Timberwolves were able to receive two #1 overall picks (Wiggins and Bennett) and a solid role-player (Young) while the Kings only received a #8 pick who had been struggling a bit (Hield), a pick in the latter half of the lottery (#10, later traded for #15 Justin Jackson and #20 Harry Giles), and some half-year rentals (Evans and Galloway). In addition to the added talent there, the Timberwolves were able to land the elusive #1 pick that the Kings could never get near and draft Karl-Anthony Towns, another very talented player. The pick of Dunn at #5 looks to be a poor choice thus far, and while that should have set Minnesota back for at least a year, they were able to swindle the Bulls and trade for Jimmy Butler while only giving up LaVine (just underwent ACL surgery), Dunn (struggling), and about 10 spots in the loaded 2017 Draft (#7-->16). At long last, it looks like the Timberwolves' playoff drought is officially over.

Like with the Jazz, this appears to be another realistic path for the Kings to follow. Minnesota did have a leg-up on the Kings with an already experienced PG ready to lead the youth (Rubio) just like Utah did at SF with Hayward, but no comparison is ever perfect. As the Kings let their youth grow and discover which ones are unlikely to develop, they will have a better understanding of what pieces they still need for the future. Sacramento, like Minnesota, will never be a top choice of major free agents. Thus, like Minnesota, the Kings will almost assuredly need to package some of their promising prospects (Dunn and LaVine, for the Wolves) in order to get an impact player that isn’t homegrown. It is very likely that it will have only taken 3 years for Minnesota to get back to the playoffs after unloading their starred big man, and since that included a veteran PG in Rubio and a trade for a top-20 player in Butler, the Kings will likely need a bit of luck to reach the playoffs in as little time.

Likelihood of Following Their Timeline, in the Form of a Kings’ Moment: DeMarcus Cousins picking up a technical foul in any given game.

Worst-Case Scenario: Orlando Magic

First Season of Rebuilding: 2012-2013

Number of Seasons Until Playoffs: N/A

Number of Seasons Until Contender: N/A

Lottery Luck? No.

Number of Top-5 Picks: 3 (Oladipo, Gordon, Hezonja)

Just Traded Franchise Player? Yes (Dwight Howard, August 2012)

Number of Players ≤ 21 Years Old in First Rebuilding Season: 3

Number of Draft Picks that Became Stars: Zero.

Commentary: The Magic, unfortunately, have done about as poorly as a rebuilding team can do. While their draft picks have appeared to be solid rotational players for the most part (the jury remains out on Hezonja thus far), none of their selections have shown real star potential. The same can be said regarding their trades, as well, which include the additions of Tobias Harris, Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Josh McRoberts, and Evan Fournier. The one risky trade they did make turned out to be a major dud, as they gave up Oladipo, #12 pick Sabonis, and Ilyasova for a half-year rental of Ibaka before ultimately turning him back around for Terrence Ross and a 2017 1st round pick. If that wasn’t bad enough, Orlando also decided to pay Biyombo handsomely for at least two more seasons (he has a player option for one more) while already having Vucevic, Ibaka, and Gordon on the roster. None of the above decisions moved the needle positively in any manner, and the Dwight Howard and J.J. Redick trades yielded a load of rotational players and little more.

This is simply the worst-case scenario for any rebuilding team. If DeMarcus Cousins never turned out to have star potential, the Magic might be a mirror image of where the Kings would be: multiple picks that turned out to be okay or poor, no real star in sight, questionable trades that may derail the future, and just enough talent to avoid having a good chance of getting a top-3 pick but nearly enough talent to come close to reaching the playoffs. In reality, however, this could very well be the Kings in a few years. The Cousins trade left us with Hield, Justin Jackson, and Harry Giles; our recent drafts have given us De’Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, Georgios Papagiannis, and Malachi Richardson; and Bogdanovic is likely to arrive from Europe this summer. All of these players seem promising at the moment, just as the Magic’s young players did to them. But Fox and Skal may be the only players possible of reaching star-status, and if neither of them ever get there, are the Kings really any different than the Magic?

Without a top-3 pick, the chances of ever getting a star player become much slimmer, but not impossible. Even a top-3 pick doesn’t guarantee success, as the Magic found out with Oladipo. At this point, it is up to the Kings and Magic to make the most out of their draft position, develop what they have, and hope their scouting departments have done their homework.

Likelihood of Following Their Timeline, in the Form of a Kings’ Moment: The Maloofs running out of money (on both the likelihood scale and the happiness scale).

SUMMARIZING

Now that the individual teams have been examined, let us take a look at a broad overview of how close each one is to the Kings team as currently constructed:

Some observations from the chart:

• It will likely take at least 3 seasons of rebuilding before the playoffs are eminent. OKC only required 2 thanks to the immaculate drafting of three superstars, but even Golden State needed 3 before finally getting into the postseason.

• Top-5 picks are not necessary to become a contender. Everyone would love to follow OKC’s plan and draft superstar after superstar, but Golden State proved that one of the best teams in NBA history can be created without a single top-5 pick required.

• Trading the team’s franchise player to rebuild does not always work out. As Orlando proved, a team cannot always expect the large bounty received in the trading of stars to magically (no pun intended) work out.

• Multiple stars are needed to become a force in the playoffs. OKC and Golden State were each able to contend thanks to either having 2 of the top-5 players in the NBA (OKC) or having a slew of All-Stars that shined with talent (Golden State). Utah started making noise last season, but it was ultimately shown that Hayward and Gobert were not enough to even scratch the armor of the Warriors (and injuries certainly didn’t help).

• The Kings are incredibly young, even for rebuilding teams. Only Minnesota comes close to the Kings with their large number of youth. The other teams on the list tended to have only a few players under 21 years of age, indicating that more time may be needed for Sacramento’s roster.

CONCLUSION: So, when will the Sacramento Kings make the playoffs again?

In all likelihood, the Kings will probably follow the path of the Timberwolves. As noted above, the two share a very similar story and are the only two teams who have not made the playoffs since the 2005-2006 NBA season. Unfortunately, the situation of the Orlando Magic is just as similar and much more depressing. Their star big man was traded for no real star in return, and the variety of middling prospects that they have drafted over the years (along with poor trades) has left the team in no-man's land with no postseason appearance likely any time soon. Taking the road between the two teams, and also taking into consideration the youth of the Kings' roster, the answer to the question is probably:

ANSWER: Three (3) seasons at the earliest, and more likely four (4) due to the vast amount of youth on the roster.

By the 2019-2020 season, there is a very real possibility that the Sacramento Kings could be playoff bound for the first time in well over a decade. By the 2020-2021 season, the odds of being in the playoffs are good (assuming player development goes at least moderately well). More time will be needed to form a contender, of course, but every young team needs to start somewhere.